When was the best time in 19th century when France might have controlled the seas?

I'm looking for a short period in the 19th century when France might have overcome the historical British dominance at sea.

Given the British tendency to maintain and fund a strong navy, there are few real opportunities but I've been thinking that there may have been a chance early in the move to steam power.

Assume the following:

1. Someone in Britain's naval hierarchy fails to recognize the impact of steam power. The naval office remains hidebound with a handful of old fogies, and France manages to jump ahead a generation (meaning a couple of years in terms fo technological advancement at this time) and gets a half-dozen steampowered, partially armored, ocean-going warships before Britain realizes the impact of this new technology.

2. Assume a somewhat weaker Britain with fewer financial resources or a stronger post-napoleonic France (see my Quasi-War series for an example).


Could a handful of "more modern" ocean-going ships in, say, the 1840's, seriously hope to wipe the Royal Navy from the English Channel?

Assume Britain sends forth a couple dozen classic sailing ships. France replies with ten plus four of those new-fangled steam ships.

Could this work, even for a short time-period?

Thanks.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
1. Someone in Britain's naval hierarchy fails to recognize the impact of steam power. The naval office remains hidebound with a handful of old fogies, and France manages to jump ahead a generation (meaning a couple of years in terms fo technological advancement at this time) and gets a half-dozen steampowered, partially armored, ocean-going warships before Britain realizes the impact of this new technology.

This doesn't really work. Britain had a massive lead in steam technology by 1800. Its potential use in naval power was obvious.

2. Assume a somewhat weaker Britain with fewer financial resources or a stronger post-napoleonic France (see my Quasi-War series for an example).

Again, by 1800, Britain's lead over France was too big. Britain had advanced stock markets, bond markets, and a central bank, while France's financial institutions were comparatively backward. You'd need a POD earlier than 1800 to reverse this.
 
Anaxagoras said:
by 1800, Britain's lead over France was too big. Britain had advanced stock markets, bond markets, and a central bank, while France's financial institutions were comparatively backward.
How do the United States and the Netherlands compare?
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
How do the United States and the Netherlands compare?

The Netherlands had had the world's most advanced financial institutions during the 17th Century (which is why it punched so much above its weight), until the British copied them and then improved upon them. The United States was still a youngling around 1800 and just getting up off its feet. It wouldn't really catch up until the late 19th Century.
 
The late 19th Century was probably the best time France could have controlled the seas (still quite a long shot). The Franco-Russian alliance allowed both countries to apply a global pressure on Britain, stretching out the latter's naval resources to the limit. The UK also faced strong regional competitors in the US and Japan during this period, which was why OTL it took pains to appease these powers and, eventually, the French and Russians themselves.

A more intransigent Westminster might have pissed all of these powers off to such an extent that the Royal Navy would no longer be able to freely operate in most of its sea lanes - for example, by being forced to retrench in home waters. France, with its global empire, is well-positioned to fill that vacuum, at least where the Eastern Atlantic/Indian Oceans are concerned.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
Controlling the seas by themselves is never really an option for a Continental Power because of the tremendous expense of maintaining an army which Britain could avoid. Sometime before German reunification would help tremendously

The only times that France seriously threatened British domination of the seas was in the 18th century when she could count on Spain and near the end of the 19th century when she was allied with Russia. Not sure if that's what you want

French doctrine also moved to the Jeune Ecole or sea denial strategy after the Prussian War. Here, the French may have been able to succeed- British Naval Doctrine required a two - one ratio in cruisers.

So the best chance would be when France can take advantage of a technological revolution (advance armor in the 1890's or ironclads in the 1860's) coupled with a disunited Germany and applying a cruiser strategy to spread the British thin. It might then be possible to sneak across the channel in the middle of the night.

Say, 1860-70 especially if they avoid the Crimean War and can ally with Russia with a disunited Germany between them
 
I'm looking for a short period in the 19th century when France might have overcome the historical British dominance at sea.

Given the British tendency to maintain and fund a strong navy, there are few real opportunities but I've been thinking that there may have been a chance early in the move to steam power.

Assume the following:

1. Someone in Britain's naval hierarchy fails to recognize the impact of steam power. The naval office remains hidebound with a handful of old fogies, and France manages to jump ahead a generation (meaning a couple of years in terms fo technological advancement at this time) and gets a half-dozen steampowered, partially armored, ocean-going warships before Britain realizes the impact of this new technology.

2. Assume a somewhat weaker Britain with fewer financial resources or a stronger post-napoleonic France (see my Quasi-War series for an example).


Could a handful of "more modern" ocean-going ships in, say, the 1840's, seriously hope to wipe the Royal Navy from the English Channel?

Assume Britain sends forth a couple dozen classic sailing ships. France replies with ten plus four of those new-fangled steam ships.

Could this work, even for a short time-period?

Thanks.
The easiest way for France to acheive a short period of dominence would be for France to acquire some sort of technology that the British were slow to take up, one obvious possibility would be for the French to take up the Paixhans shell gun, which fired exploding shells with a delayed fuse on a flat trajectory. Paixhans came up with the idea in 1822, but it wasn't adopted until the late 1830's with the British following shortly after. The good thing about this is that it took some time before Navies started to seriously experiment with protective armour.
An alternative would be the the screw propeller rather than simply the steam engine, as the screw propellor was necessary for making the steam engine sufficiently efficient for oceangoing purpose. Although the propeller was invented in Britain, the Navy was initially reluctant to adopt them, believing that they wouldn't work well at sea.
Oh, and the French might not have to dominate the RN, just persauding the British that their dominence was threatened might be enough.
 
This doesn't really work. Britain had a massive lead in steam technology by 1800. Its potential use in naval power was obvious.



Again, by 1800, Britain's lead over France was too big. Britain had advanced stock markets, bond markets, and a central bank, while France's financial institutions were comparatively backward. You'd need a POD earlier than 1800 to reverse this.

I agree that 1800 was guaranteed to be British dominance at sea, and through the rest of the Age of Sail. However, the technological advances were possible in the 1840's that eliminated this long-time competitive advantage in skilled sailors.

As I have the Bonapartist Dynasty continuing to dominate Western Europe, one must suppose that France would be in a better financial condition than OTL.
 
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So the best chance would be when France can take advantage of a technological revolution (advance armor in the 1890's or ironclads in the 1860's) coupled with a disunited Germany and applying a cruiser strategy to spread the British thin. It might then be possible to sneak across the channel in the middle of the night.




Just what I was thinking. A stronger France dominating western Europe (obviating the need for a huge army), a weaker Britain (no Ireland) and a weaker Prussia that had no chance of forcibly conquering Germany.

If France went down the right path in the 1840's or 1850's, they might have had at least a temperary advantage.
 
The problem really boils down to

France MUST have a large army if it wants to be competitive. A large navy is optional.

Britain MUST have a large navy if it wants to be competitive. A large army is optional.

This is in addition to all the other factors mentioned above.

So. No, it's not going to happen. Britain can always afford to spend more on her navy than the French can.
 
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