When the Levee Broke: An Alternate Lincoln Assassination and Beyond

Chapter 1: The Inaugural Bullet
Greetings all. It's been some years since I updated my previous TL with the same subject matter. Over that time, I have been refining it, drastically changing some elements of the previous TL, and expanding upon it. I figure today, the 160th anniversary of President Abraham Lincoln's first inauguration, would be the perfect time to unveil this redone version of my old TL. I have a backlog of updates/chapters, which I will be releasing on a weekly basis. However, once I catch up to the chapters I have already written, updates will come a bit slower, at most every two weeks. I currently have 13 chapters written, so for now you will all be getting regular updates, but I wanted to make sure you were clued into the plan. Each chapter will take the form of an excerpt from a history text, usually from a collegiate-level survey course, that would exist in this alternate reality. So, without further ado, I present this TL redux:

1 THE INAUGURAL BULLET
From Battle Hymn: A History of the American Civil War
By Eric McPherson, 1988

The Republican Party, whose rise was in many ways a catalyst that launched the US towards civil war, formed in 1854 to combat the Kansas-Nebraska Act. In violation of the 1820 Missouri Compromise which determined a state’s slave-or-free status based on each state’s geographic location, this act allowed residents of the Kansas and Nebraska territories to decide via popular sovereignty whether or not to allow slavery in their respective territories. Many abolitionists were angered by this, and as such came into bloody conflict with slave-owners in the Kansas Territory. Between 1854 and 1861, these forces clashed over the slave issue, serving ultimately as practice for the Civil War.

It was during this growing discontent over the Kansas-Nebraska Act that Abraham Lincoln grew to political prominence. Born in Hodgenville, Kentucky on February 12, 1809, Lincoln grew up in the frontier states of Kentucky and Indiana. He was largely self-educated and became a lawyer in Illinois. From there, he became a leader of the Whig Party and a member of the Illinois House of Representatives from 1834 to 1846. He was elected to the US House of Representatives from Illinois’ 7th district where he only served for one term. Lincoln returned to Illinois in 1849 to resume his law practice.

His return to electoral politics began in the senatorial elections of 1858 when he took on Democrat Stephen Douglas. Douglas, the incumbent in the race, was first elected to the US Senate in 1846, the same year Lincoln was first elected to the House. He took office in 1847 and, by the election of 1858, had been in office for 11 years. During that time Douglas was one of the major orchestrators of the Kansas-Nebraska Act, and was well-positioned as Lincoln’s political rival.

During the election, Lincoln and Douglas engaged in numerous lengthy debates on slavery in the territories and the wider US. Lincoln, ever the orator, regularly delivered hours-long speeches on the question of slavery, firmly solidifying him as an abolitionist candidate. At numerous points during the election, Lincoln attempted to back Douglas into a corner by getting him to take a firm stance on the extension of slavery. One of Douglas’ strategies in the 1858 senatorial election was to appeal both to conservative Illinoisans in the state’s south and moderates in the state’s north. Lincoln knew this and hoped to alienate one group or the other by forcing Douglas to commit on the expansion question. Should Douglas say he supported expansion of the institution, he would alienate Illinoisians and other Northerners; should he oppose it, he would alienate his Southern base. Douglas instead continued to tiptoe around the issue, stating that in the same way that Kansas and Nebraska settled the slave question through popular sovereignty, so too could other Western territories.

This was enough to satisfy Illinois’ legislature, who re-elected Douglas by a vote of 54 to 46. Lincoln, despite the loss, still garnered major support throughout Illinois and indeed the national Republican Party. At the 1860 Republican Convention, he was one of four front runners in the battle for the Republican nomination. However, as the convention in Chicago proceeded, it became abundantly clear that none of his opponents could muster the same support in the Republican base and indeed throughout the rest of the nation as Lincoln could. As such, he won the Republican nomination on May 18, 1860.

Senator Hannibal Hamlin of Maine won easy nomination as his Vice President. Hamlin was born on August 27, 1809 in the town of Paris in what was then part of Massachusetts; this territory became the state of Maine in 1820. He was admitted to the bar in 1833 and began practice in Hampden, Maine. Originally a Democrat, Hamlin’s political career began with his election to the Maine House of Representatives in 1835. From there, he was appointed to the military staff of Democratic Governor Robert P Dunlap where he took part in the negotiations that ended the Aroostook War over Maine’s northern border. This service raised his profile in Maine, facilitating his 1843 election to the US House of Representatives in which he served until 1847. In 1848, the Maine state legislature elected Hamlin to the US Senate where, except for a month-long term as governor, he served until 1861. An active opponent of slavery and vocal abolitionist, Hamlin was strongly opposed to the aforementioned Kansas-Nebraska Act. His radical abolitionist views increasingly put him at odds with the Democratic Party. In 1856, he finally switched his allegiance and became a Republican. His political experience and the geographic balance brought by his New England heritage made him an obvious choice to be Lincoln’s vice president.

With this Lincoln-Hamlin ticket, the Republican Party would sweep the Northern states and clench victory in the election. Lincoln won just under 40 percent of the popular vote but earned 59 percent of the electoral vote. The Democrats, plagued by partisan disarray, never stood a chance. Yet despite Lincoln’s overwhelming victory, southerners still worked to prevent themselves from living under Lincoln’s rule. Chief among these was Roger Buckley, born and raised in Baltimore, Maryland.

The son of a wealthy merchant, Buckley had deep connections to the Southern uppercrust of Baltimore society. In 1860 Buckley joined a group of Southern sympathizers led by an Italian barber named Cipriano Ferrandini, a radical Southern sympathizer with a deep, abiding hatred for President-elect Lincoln. Ferrandini’s group made it their mission to ensure that Lincoln never made it to Washington, DC for his inauguration in the first place. The group planned to assassinate Lincoln on his trek to DC during a scheduled public appearance in Baltimore. However, Allan Pinkerton, detective and spy charged with the protection of Lincoln on his transit, had learned of this plot and urged Lincoln to travel through the city in secret. Lincoln obliged and, travelling in disguise on a night train, managed to slip through Ferrandini’s fingers.

Ferrandini’s hatred for Lincoln never waned and his group became even more radicalized. Roger Buckley was perhaps Ferrandini’s closest disciple, and they would often share drinks in a private saloon at a local hotel. Buckley was at first unsure about why Lincoln had to die; indeed, Buckley felt that terrorist efforts ought to focus more on the local government of Baltimore in order to encourage Maryland’s secession. However, he was a deep admirer of Ferrandini’s conviction and was eager to adopt his thought process. One night in the saloon, Buckley asked Ferrandini, “Are there no other means of saving the South except by assassination?” “No,” Ferrandini said sternly. “He must die, and die he shall. If necessary, we will die together.”

Pinkerton for his part was diligent in spying on the group. However, his efforts were largely focused on Ferrandini himself. While the Italian was certainly not a fan of Lincoln and was an ardent secessionist, it is unlikely that he would have killed the president-elect if given the opportunity. Most of his boasts were just talk. “The barber’s combs have more teeth and his shears more conviction than he,” Pinkerton once remarked, dismissive of any further trouble from Ferrandini’s gang.

Unfortunately for the nation, Pinkerton forgot to account for Buckley, who was determined to carry out Ferrandini’s plot even if his mentor was not. Buckley fancied himself a true Southern patriot. For whatever reason he felt that Confederate President Jefferson Davis was moving much too slowly in dealing with the North. To remedy this, Buckley resolved to assassinate Lincoln at his inauguration to show that the North was not safe even in their capital. Buckley’s last passage in his diary clearly illustrates his convictions:

"Who are we to let tyranny go unanswered? Why, when our course is so clear, do some shirk from their God-given duty? Lincoln must be dispatched for the good of the South and her way of life; there is no other course which must be taken. The treasonous North must learn that the South will not so quietly secede; indeed she will take some of those abhorrent abolitionist monsters with her as she departs. It is times like these when brave men must relinquish their life and liberty for the good of their God-fearing white brethren. I shall gladly accept this burden in the hopes that when I die, Lincoln dies with me."

Buckley, with the aid of two compatriots in the movement, would act on March 4, 1861. A Baltimore gun manufacturer, sympathetic to the movement’s cause, supplied the gang of three with their weapons. Once armed, the gang set off for Washington, DC to prepare for Lincoln’s arrival. They holed up in a boardinghouse owned by Buckley’s cousin, situated along the inaugural parade route. While not a member of the movement himself, Buckley’s cousin was sympathetic to its goals. They arrived on March 2 to give themselves ample time to prepare an escape plan should the opportunity present itself. Lincoln, for his part, arrived in the city on February 23, 1861. He spent the time between then and his inauguration getting the President’s House set up for his administration and family. He and his family would never take up residence there.

On the morning of March 4, 1861, Lincoln made his way, along with then-President James Buchanan, from Willard’s Hotel on 14th Street to the Capitol. Lincoln and Buchanan rode together in an open carriage, surrounded on all sides by scores of soldiers sworn to protect the president-elect with their lives if necessary. Along the way other soldiers were positioned on rooftops with strict instructions to shoot anyone crowding towards the carriage.

The procession eventually passed by the boardinghouse, giving Buckley and his gang the perfect opportunity to strike. The gang opened their windows and rested their rifle barrels, fully loaded, on the sill. Then, just as the roar of the crowd reached a fever pitch, the gang fired three bullets in all. One struck the lead horse pulling the carriage; the second whizzed by President Buchanan’s ear without causing any damage, eventually cracking the brick in a wall across the street; the third would change the course of history.

Lincoln was hit in the side of the head, just above his left ear. The crowd was shocked. They began to run around the streets helplessly, trampling each other in a mad dash for shelter. Soldiers searched diligently for the killer, but no one was quite sure from which direction the shots came. The carriage, despite the wounded horse, made a mad dash for the nearest hospital or doctor in hopes of saving the president-elect, but these efforts proved futile. Buckley and his gang, for their part, were ecstatic about the results. None of them died and they had succeeded in assassinating the “abolitionist ape from Illinois,” as some in the South had taken to calling him. The gang, feeling confident, decided not to take any chances and stayed in their room the rest of the day.

Vice President-Elect Hannibal Hamlin was waiting in the Capitol’s Senate chamber for the procession to arrive so that outgoing Vice President John Breckinridge could deliver his successor the oath of office. Approximately 20 minutes after shots were fired, a cadre of soldiers burst into the Senate chamber, completely out of breath, and shouted to a puzzled Hamlin, “Lincoln has been slain!” These soldiers had been dispatched by Lieutenant-General Winfield Scott to protect Hamlin. Scott had, of course, also been charged with protecting Lincoln during the inaugural parade. Despite having failed in his mission, his resolve barely wavered. He ordered the soldiers to protect the Senate chamber while he went back into the chaos. Reportedly, as he rode away, he angrily shouted: “I will manure the hills of Arlington with fragments of those rebels!” In the meantime, Chief Justice Roger Taney rushed to administer the presidential oath of office to Hamlin in order to provide some sense of continuity during this crisis.

Throughout the coming days, Allan Pinkerton embarked with the army on a relentless pursuit of Lincoln’s killer, barging into homes and businesses along the parade route. Eventually they came to Buckley’s cousin’s boardinghouse. While checking the guestbook, Pinkerton quickly came across Roger Buckley’s name, which he recognized from his time spying on Ferrandini’s radical group. The army arrested Buckley’s cousin, having been given the power by now-President Hamlin, and interrogated him for information as to Buckley’s whereabouts.

The army eventually tracked Buckley to an abandoned Virginia farmhouse just south of DC where he and his gang had taken shelter in an abandoned barn. Pinkerton resolved to smoke the gang out and force them into the hands of the waiting army. On March 7, Pinkerton set the barn aflame. Rather than let themselves get captured by the Union army and subsequently hanged, the gang decided to go out in a blaze of glory. Leaning out the burning windows, they pulled their rifles on the army and began firing. Two soldiers died in the exchange, as did the three members of Buckley’s gang.

Lincoln’s funeral was held on March 8 in the Senate chamber. Hamlin used this time to deliver his inaugural address in the form of a eulogy to Lincoln, reproduced here in full:

"Fellow-Citizens of the United States:

"We were struck a bloody blow just four short days ago. In anger and apprehension over the democratic process, Southern rebels struck down our chosen leader before he could even take the Oath. They were at once apprehensive about Abe’s politics, and about his commitment to abolition of that most horrid of institutions. Abe was first and foremost concerned with the unity of this Nation, which has endured unimpeded four score and three years. Now he belongs to the ages, along with any hope of unity for this great country.

"We are presently engaged in a grand trial, testing whether this nation conceived in unity and dedicated to liberty can endure terrorism perpetrated by crazed children, poisoned by dangerous ideas of slavery and violent retaliation. We have come here to eulogize our president-elect and immortalize him as a martyr for the great cause of liberty. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this. Yet our efforts pale in comparison to his sacrifice; his blood-stained carriage has done more to immortalize the greatest moral struggle of our time than any of our efforts ever could. History will little note what was said here in this chamber, but it can never and will never forget Abe’s martyrdom.

"We must now dedicate ourselves to his mission of unity and liberty – for this honored martyr we must increase our devotion to the abolitionist cause and bind this nation together with stronger ties. Abe shall not have died in vain. This nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom. These may have been the first shots of this rebellion, but they will not be the last. This government of the people, by the people, for the people that Abe so long defended shall, despite the best efforts of some, not perish from this world. My heart is in the coffin there with him, and I shall not rest till it comes back to me."

This speech did a marvelous job stirring up Union loyalists for a bloody Civil War, but it only served to enrage the Confederacy more. Hamlin talked outright of abolishing slavery as one of his primary presidential goals and of attributing the actions to a few crazed terrorists to an entire country. The seven Confederate states, which had already been encouraged by the assassination of Lincoln, were thus further resolved to mobilize and end the Union before the Union could end them. There were eight states that had yet to make up their minds about which side to join in the war: Arkansas, Delaware, Kentucky, Maryland, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia. Their allegiances would become critically important in the coming years.
 
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Just found those TL (Ironically by your post that you had just found someone else’s!) So far it seems interesting, and I like the textbook format. I’ve always played around with doing something like that (and even entered a contest on this website a year long writing in that form). Best of luck with your work, and I will be watching this TL.
 
Greetings all. It's been some years since I updated my previous TL with the same subject matter. Over that time, I have been refining it, drastically changing some elements of the previous TL, and expanding upon it. I figure today, the 160th anniversary of President Abraham Lincoln's first inauguration, would be the perfect time to unveil this redone version of my old TL. I have a backlog of updates/chapters, which I will be releasing on a weekly basis. However, once I catch up to the chapters I have already written, updates will come a bit slower, at most every two weeks. I currently have 13 chapters written, so for now you will all be getting regular updates, but I wanted to make sure you were clued into the plan. Each chapter will take the form of an excerpt from a history text, usually from a collegiate-level survey course, that would exist in this alternate reality. So, without further ado, I present this TL redux:

Oh, I remember your old version of this TL.

Looking forward to this redone version.
 
Thank you, I appreciate it, both of you!

Some of the major story beats are the same, but I've edited some of the details for greater plausibility. For example, if you remember my old version of this TL, I had rebels forming new states of Bolin, Osage, and Susanna out of Kentucky, Missouri, and California, respectively. That won't be happening in this redone version.
 
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Chapter 2: The Battle of Baltimore
2 THE BATTLE OF BALTIMORE
From Battle Hymn: A History of the American Civil War
By Eric McPherson, 1988

The nation was shocked by the news of Lincoln’s demise. Many had expected war, but no one expected it to begin this way. Northern states had unanimously voted for Lincoln in 1860. They were crushed that his presidency, which they hoped would bring about some reconciliation to the mounting tensions between North and South, ended before it began. In addition, Northerners were worried about the presidential capacities of Hamlin. Many recognized him as a great senator who was supremely passionate about abolition, but many wondered whether he had the resolve to be a wartime president. However, after reading his inaugural address, that doubt quickly dissipated and Northerners began to rally around Lincoln’s martyrdom and see Hamlin as his rightful successor.

The first obvious sign of Northern unity was the example of Delaware on March 18, 1861. Delaware was a slave-holding state which had voted for John Breckenridge, a Southern Democrat, in 1860. Nevertheless Delaware was a staunch proponent of national unity in the months between the election and Lincoln’s assassination. Delaware held a referendum on secession on January 3, 1861 and voted overwhelmingly not to secede. The governor remarked that Delaware had been the first state to embrace the Union, and it would be the last to leave it. Most Delawareans supported calls for compromise between the North and South to avoid war. However, Lincoln’s assassination had dashed any hopes for peaceful reconciliation. As such, on March 18, Delaware’s governor held another referendum concerning Delaware’s neutrality in the Civil War. Overwhelmingly and unsurprisingly, state legislators voted to endorse the Union’s cause and unequivocally join with them. Many Delawareans understood this to mean that they would likely have to give up their slaves at some point soon, but this was not a huge issue. Slavery was not nearly as critical to Delaware’s economy as it was in other slaveholding states.

The South too had its own clear-cut case of loyalty in the immediate aftermath of the assassination. Arkansas, while little more than an underdeveloped frontier state in the antebellum years, was still a major slave state in a crucial spot near the Mississippi River. It is no surprise then that the Confederacy had been courting the state for quite some time. Prior to the assassination, Arkansas was sympathetic to the Southern cause yet also supported reconciliation if possible. Arkansans desperately wanted Lincoln and the North to prove that they wanted reconciliation, preferably without abolition of slavery. “The South wants practical evidence of good faith from the North, not mere paper agreements and compromises,” remarked Arkansas Governor Henry Rector at the state’s secession convention on March 2, 1861.

Any hope for this practical evidence of good faith died with Lincoln. Hamlin made it clear that he was unwilling to reconcile with the South until Lincoln’s death was sufficiently avenged, the Southern rebellion crushed underfoot, and slavery abolished. To Arkansas and the rest of the South, Hamlin was the epitome of everything wrong with the North and the Republican Party. On March 19, soon after Hamlin’s inaugural address, Arkansas seceded from the Union; they were welcomed into the Confederacy on March 26.

Meanwhile, President Hamlin was preparing to defend against an all-out assault on Washington, DC. The assassination had sent a wave of terror through the US political system. Another attack, especially from nearby Baltimore, was deemed imminent. Hamlin’s advisers pressed upon him two options to deal with this presumptive attack: crack down on Baltimore itself or temporarily move the national capital out of hostile territory. The latter would prove a massive undertaking and would, in Hamlin’s opinion, be tantamount to surrender, so Hamlin tabled that plan for the foreseeable future. Instead he decided to crackdown on dissidents in Baltimore itself. On March 13 Hamlin gave the order: to prevent further bloodshed in the nation’s capital and maintain some sense of stability, Baltimore was to be placed under martial law.

Hamlin aimed to protect the capital, and indeed the Union, by keeping down dissidents in Baltimore. As such, Hamlin called in the 6th Massachusetts Militia from Boston. The militia arrived on March 22 and expected little resistance. Most of Baltimore’s population was opposed to war in general; only a minority of the population was radicalized enough to cause the Union trouble. Still though, Baltimore was home to the radicalized population that had organized the assassination of Lincoln, and Hamlin deemed it dangerous enough for a strong military response. However, this radicalized minority in turn deemed him dangerous enough for their own strong militarized resistance.

In the days leading up to the 6th Massachusetts Militia’s arrival, Cipriano Ferrandini, the leader of assassin Roger Buckley’s radical organization now called “Buckley's Brigade,” spent his days radicalizing the white population of Baltimore. “You see what that barbarous Hannibal has done to us?” he cried out in one fiery speech in the city’s square. “He means to take away our freedoms, simply because we harbor strong disagreement with his dictatorial regime! The beast aims to rip our Southern hearts right from our chests and force us to take Lincoln for a martyr. A martyr, he says! Clearly that most treasonous of Yankees had not seen Roger Buckley, that greatest of martyrs, with his own eyes!”

While his fiery speeches had little effect on the most loyal of Baltimore’s population, especially on the free blacks that comprised a full 49 percent of the city’s black population, it did find quite a large audience in Baltimore’s radicalized white population. Almost overnight, Southern sympathizers rallied to the Buckley Brigade and began to follow Ferrandini with a mad zeal. They fashioned themselves after the Minutemen of the American Revolution and felt that they were fighting for a similar cause of freedom from oppression by a tyrannical government.

The 6th Massachusetts arrived in the city on the morning of March 22, 1861 and was immediately met with resistance. Just as the militia departed their vehicles, they were met with an angry mob which proceeded to bombard the troops with bricks and paving stones. Naturally the troops feared for their lives and fired into the crowd, which only served to further transform these riots into an all-out battle. The rebels began firing upon the troops and heavy gunfire was exchanged. By the end of the first day of fighting, 30 soldiers and 45 civilians lay dead, with many more injured. As news of the assault began to spread through the city, many Baltimoreans flocked to the Brigade’s side. They had been told that the Union had shot first, unprovoked, and that Buckley’s Brigade had previously only been engaged in peaceful protest.

Several Baltimoreans remained skeptical, the violent reputation of the Brigade having preceded them. Yet despite this, Ferrandini’s claims that the Union was attempting to wipe out Baltimore for harboring dissidents gained more validity as a result of this early exchange of bullets. This in turn led to a massive influx of support for the Brigade. By March 24, the Buckley Brigade had overwhelmed the 6th Massachusetts, killing and capturing a large number of the men in that unit. When Governor Thomas Holliday Hicks received word of this so-called “Battle of Baltimore,” he was infuriated. This kind of unrest was exactly what he was trying to prevent. The Brigade’s riot undermined any of Hicks’ attempts to keep Maryland neutral during the war. It was only a matter of time before the Brigade, who had gained widespread support throughout the more-Confederate portions of the state, would rally for secession.

The time finally came on March 27 when the Brigade, led by Ferrandini, stormed into Maryland’s Capitol building in Annapolis. They demanded that Hicks call a special session of the General Assembly to once again vote on the issue of secession. Under immense political pressure and fearing violent backlash should he not adhere to the Brigade’s demands, he called a special session that would convene on March 30 in the pro-Union town of Frederick, Maryland. Unfortunately for Hicks, Frederick’s pro-Union sympathies would not be enough to keep Maryland in the Union. In a tight vote, the Assembly voted to secede from the Union as direct retaliation for Hamlin’s declaration of martial law in Baltimore. Historians have since argued that the vote may have been rigged by Buckley’s Brigade in favor of secession, noting that the majority of delegates had been staunch supporters of Maryland’s neutrality just weeks before the vote. Likely the Brigade used all the tactics of intimidation it had at its disposal in order to coerce the delegates to vote in favor of secession.

Whatever the reason for the flip-flopping of several delegates to the Assembly, Maryland had voted for secession, much to the delight of Ferrandini and the Brigade. Others were obviously not so enthusiastic about the secession. Many free blacks promptly fled the state for Pennsylvania to the north and Delaware to the east, fearing immediate re-enslavement. Hicks, despite his pro-South sympathies, was deeply disappointed by Maryland’s secession. On April 2, he resigned from office. Without a lieutenant governor to replace him, there was a vacancy in the office. The General Assembly held special elections to replace him. Because of his Italian ancestry, which Ferrandini knew voters would not overlook despite his heavy involvement with the Buckley Brigade, he decided not to enter his name into contention. Instead he selected Dr Richard Sprigg Steuart, head of a prominent Baltimore slaveholding family and key orchestrator of the secession vote, as a proxy. Steuart became governor on April 5, 1861. His first act in office was to petition Jefferson Davis and the Confederacy for admission, a request which was granted on April 13, 1861.

Maryland’s secession and subsequent admittance into the Confederacy would send massive ripples throughout the country. Virginia, angered by Hamlin’s declaration of martial law and heartened by Baltimore’s successful resistance of the 6th Massachusetts Militia, seceded on April 3 and was accepted into the Confederacy on April 8. Washington, DC was surrounded by the Confederacy and quickly found itself in an indefensible position. During the week of April 10, Hamlin quietly organized a mass exodus of the capital, taking all the important political institutions with him. Attack on the capital was imminent, it was thought, so the Union government had to get out of Confederate territory with the utmost speed and urgency. Thankfully for the Union, word of this exodus failed to reach Confederate forces. The US government, in an act of self-preservation, escaped DC and made a safe retreat to Boston.

After seeing Maryland successfully rebuke the Union, several other states were inspired to secede soon after. On April 14, North Carolina seceded, followed by Tennessee three days later. Both states were accepted into the Confederacy on April 23. Battle lines were quickly drawn throughout the fragmented nation with the destiny of only two states, Missouri and Kentucky, now uncertain. By the summer, the situation would become much more complicated.
 
Chapter 3: Drawing Battle Lines
3 DRAWING BATTLE LINES
From Battle Hymn: A History of the American Civil War
By Eric McPherson, 1988

After Hamlin ordered troops to quell uprisings in Baltimore, Confederate sympathizers in the border states of Missouri and Kentucky felt that their way of life was under attack. Many politicians in these two states felt that the only way to prevent Union invasion of their own states was to immediately capitulate and pledge unwavering support for the Union. However, after seeing the Buckley Brigade successfully rout Union troops in Baltimore and coerce the state into secession, these same Southern sympathizers soon realized they had a second option. They could fight back against the Northern aggressors, determine their own destiny, and stand up for their way of life, which included, of course, maintaining slavery.

Kentucky, birthplace of Union President-Elect Abraham Lincoln and Confederate President Jefferson Davis, was the first of these two border states to do so. From the time of South Carolina’s secession to Lincoln’s assassination, Kentucky favored neutrality in any coming war. However, Lincoln’s assassination at the hands of pro-Confederate terrorists made any efforts to maintain neutrality all but impossible. Two factions quickly arose in Kentucky in the assassination’s immediate aftermath.

The first faction was led by John Crittenden. A former US Senator from the Know-Nothing Party, he was elected to the US House of Representatives as a member of the Constitutional Union Party for the session beginning March 4, 1861. For much of his political career, Crittenden had worked to prevent war from breaking out and had argued for neutrality. Fancying himself a successor to Henry Clay, the great compromiser, he worked tirelessly to extend the Missouri Compromise line to the Pacific Coast and establish fugitive slave laws to appease the South and, hopefully, discourage it from rebelling. Lincoln’s assassination eliminated any peaceful compromise Crittenden might have been able to deliver. Because of this act of aggression, Crittenden worked to quell potential rebellion in his home state. He returned to Kentucky in late March to argue vigorously for the state to follow Delaware’s example and declare for the Union.

The second faction was led by Governor Beriah Magoffin. Like Crittenden, Magoffin had long been an advocate of peace between the North and South, despite being a staunch Southern sympathizer himself. However, after Hamlin’s fiery rhetoric in his eulogy and the Battle of Baltimore, Magoffin began to call for Kentucky to secede from the Union and join with the Confederacy. Kentucky organized a formal vote in the General Assembly on May 1 in a joint session in Frankfort to settle the issue of secession. During the resulting two days of debate, both Crittenden and Magoffin gave exhaustive speeches, imploring the Assembly to capitulate to their respective positions. Finally, the Assembly cast its vote: Kentucky would remain with the Union and send troops to fight against the Confederacy.

Magoffin was furious with the decision, as were many politicians in western Kentucky. In the wake of the decision, Magoffin and these Confederate sympathizers left the General Assembly chamber, promptly resigning their seats. These disaffected politicians immediately moved to Bowling Green and established a new Kentucky state government with Magoffin as its governor and Bowling Green as its capital. On May 11, this new Confederate government declared Kentucky’s secession from the Union. It was invited into the Confederacy on May 22. Meanwhile in Frankfort, the Unionist Kentucky government scrambled to replace Magoffin. His governorship fell to Senate Speaker John Fisk, who immediately set to work establishing fortifications around the state's major cities, knowing that the two Kentucky governments would soon come to blows. Neither of Kentucky’s two state governments recognized the authority of the other, leading to battle lines being drawn where each government could exert its influence. As such, the question of which state government had authority in a particular area depended largely on which side of the war controlled that area most recently. This model would be repeated in three other states: Virginia, Missouri, and California.

Soon after Kentucky’s dual loyalty declaration, two new states would form and declare their allegiance. The first was Kanawha, formed in the aftermath of Virginia’s secession. The delegates in western Virginia voted overwhelmingly on April 3 to reject secession but were outvoted by pro-Confederate delegates in the state’s east. Taking inspiration from Magoffin’s efforts at creating Confederate Kentucky, these delegates convened on May 15 in the town of Wheeling to form what they termed “The Restored Government of Virginia,” declaring their support for the Union cause. They kept Richmond as the capital of their state but met in Wheeling until Union forces could liberate Richmond, a feat not achieved until just before the war ended. On March 18, 1862, this Union government of Virginia allowed Virginia’s western counties to form their own state with its capital in Charleston. Kanawha, named after the Kanawha River that runs through its territory, was formally accepted into the Union on April 30, 1862.

The second new state was Nickajack, established in the aftermath of Tennessee’s secession on April 17. Eastern Tennessee was never a bastion of slavery; in fact, it was quite opposed to the institution and Confederate secession. On May 6, residents from this region protested Tennessee’s secession and formed their own “Free State of Franklin.” It was named in honor of the short-lived former state of Franklin, which lasted from 1784 to 1788 and was intended to be the 14th state in the then-new United States.

At around the same time, several counties in northern Alabama and northwestern Georgia similarly split away from their home states, forming numerous free states of their own, almost all of which were named after their respective counties. Slavery, while present, was not nearly as large an issue in these counties as it was in the rest of their respective states. On June 3, 1862, seeing what western Virginians had done with creating the state of Kanawha, these three regions merged to form the Free State of Nickajack. Residents waited on bated breath for Union liberation to formally vote on a state constitution and petition the Union for admittance. That liberation finally came on October 19, 1863 and Nickajack was welcomed into the Union with open arms.

While Nickajack waited for statehood, two final states would draw their battle lines: Missouri and California. Both these states were admitted, in 1821 and 1850 respectively, as part of sweeping compromises meant to keep the country out of war. Now that war had finally come, both states would become major battlegrounds of the war that had finally come.

First was Missouri, the lone state to vote for Northern Democrat Stephen Douglas in the presidential election of 1860. That same year, Missourians voted for Democrat Claiborne Fox Jackson, running on an anti-secession platform, as their next governor. However, as soon as Jackson got into office, he began working behind the scenes to organize Missouri’s secession. In his inaugural address, given on January 3, 1861, Jackson declared that Missouri shared common interests with other slave states, including those who had already seceded, and that Missouri could not separate itself from them should the Union ultimately dissolve. He called for a state convention to vote on the issue. That convention, which met on February 18, voted 98-1 against secession, despite hard lobbying from Jackson. Crushed, the governor resigned himself to the desire of Missourians and vowed to maintain a position of “armed neutrality.”

That all changed for Jackson when President Hamlin called for Union troops in the aftermath of the disastrous Battle of Baltimore. Jackson responded to this with a letter of his own:

"Sir: Your dispatch of the 15th instant, making a call on Missouri for four regiments of men for immediate service, has been received. There can be, I apprehend, no doubt that the men are intended to form a part of the President’s army to make war upon the people of the seceded states. Your requisition, in my judgment, is illegal, unconstitutional, and revolutionary in its object, inhuman, and diabolical and cannot be complied with. Not one man will the State of Missouri furnish to carry on any unholy crusade."

Almost immediately, Jackson began to engage in secret correspondence with Confederate President Jefferson Davis. In this correspondence, Jackson made plans to force Missouri out of the Union with a military coup. Davis, emboldened by the secession of Maryland and Hamlin’s subsequent abandonment of DC, was eager to press his advantage and was all too willing to provide Jackson with the troops he needed. Confederate troops departed from Arkansas and Tennessee on May 14, taking boats up the Mississippi River to converge with local pro-secession troops for an assault on the US Arsenal in St. Louis. Jackson’s main goal for the assault was to secure this arsenal, but Davis had wider ambitions. He wanted to capture all of St. Louis proper, since its location at the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers made it an incredibly strategic location from which to launch campaigns into the Union-controlled Midwest. Rebel control over western Kentucky gave the Confederacy control over the eastern shore of the Mississippi River. Successfully capturing St. Louis and causing Missouri’s secession would mean they could control the western shore, effectively choking off Union access to the valuable river.

On the night of May 18, Confederate troops launched an attack on the St. Louis Arsenal, then under control of Union General William S Harney. Just a week earlier, he had agreed to a truce with Major General Sterling Price of the Missouri State Guard, who was firmly in Jackson’s back pocket. The Price-Harney Truce permitted Missouri to remain neutral, so long as Missouri state forces prevented Confederate forces from invading.

Harney was naïve in his one-sided adherence to the truce. This was typical of many Union generals at the time who, still in shock over the assassination, believed that people in the border states were actually quite sympathetic to the Union cause. To be fair to Harney, the majority of Missouri’s population did indeed fall into this camp. However, there was a sizable minority of that population, led by Governor Jackson, who were instead emboldened by the assassination.

Due to this naivety, Harney was quite unprepared for Jackson’s assault. By dawn the Confederate forces had taken the arsenal, taking Harney and others prisoner. In the following days, Jackson declared that St. Louis was under Confederate control. The rest of Missouri, Jackson claimed, would soon fall. It would be better, he argued, for Missouri to simply secede rather than experience bloody Confederate invasion. Jackson declared, after Confederate-sympathizing delegates in his back pocket held a sham 39-0 vote in favor of secession, that Missouri had seceded and was now Confederate territory.

Pro-Union Missourians soon gathered in the state’s north and organized their own Righteous Government of Missouri. Delegates serving in this government then voted 60-0 to declare their support for the Union. This Righteous Government of Missouri appointed Hamilton Rowan Gamble, former chief justice of the Missouri Supreme Court, as its governor. Jackson, for his part, remained governor of Confederate Missouri. Gamble and Jackson both saw the other’s government as illegitimate, and both worked tirelessly with their respective armies to gain or maintain control over the vital city of St. Louis.

Second was California, only slightly more than a decade old at this point. Prior to California’s statehood, there was talk about admitting the former territory as two separate states by extending the Missouri Compromise Line to the Pacific Coast. However, this talk was only espoused by pro-slavery Southern politicians; anti-slavery Northern politicians saw this possibility as a gross, unacceptable extension of that vile institution. Even after admission of the territory as a single state, there were moves to split it in two. Southern immigrants had garnered support throughout the state for a bill codifying this hypothetical split. This bill was presented to the US Congress and President James Buchanan in 1859, but it fell to the wayside in light of the secession crisis.

After Lincoln’s assassination and subsequent Confederate victories in the Battles of Baltimore and St. Louis, Confederate sympathizers in southern California were eager to join their Confederate brethren in the fight for liberty. Sensing mass rebellion in the region and not wanting a repeat of the humiliation experienced in Baltimore and St. Louis, Union leaders amassed troops in major cities in the southern portion of California to put down secessionist revolts before they even began. Confederate-sympathizers deemed secession all but impossible and made plans to move to Texas to join with Confederate troops there.

Two events conspired to turn the tide. The first and most minor was the Confederate creation of the Arizona Territory. According to the Confederate claim, the Arizona Territory comprised the southern half of the larger New Mexico Territory. Specifically, this comprised land in that larger territory south of the 34th parallel, nearly identical to the borders of the modern state of Arizona. The strategic location of the Arizona Territory provided a direct supply line from Texas to Confederate sympathizers in southern California with minimal interference from Union troops, meaning that Californian secessionist forces would be well-supplied in any hypothetical revolt.

The second development was much more significant, both nationally and globally. Across the US-Mexico border, while the US Civil War was just beginning, the Mexican Civil War was just ending. Starting in 1857, liberal forces inspired by the ideals of the European Enlightenment hoped to form a federalist government. These liberal forces clashed with conservative forces who advocated for the creation of a monarchist government fueled by a powerful Catholic Church. On January 3, 1861, conservative forces under the command of Félix Zuloaga and Miguel Miramón surrendered to liberal forces under the control of Benito Juárez. Liberals took control of Mexico’s government and Juárez was elected president in March of 1861.

Despite liberal victory, conservatives continued engaging in guerilla warfare. In northern Mexico, this went one step further. A small contingent of conservative forces in the region saw the early success of the Confederacy and hatched a plan. If they helped the Confederacy emerge victorious, perhaps the Confederacy would aid them in defeating Juárez’s liberal government. Without knowledge from the Juárez government, this contingent crossed the US-Mexico border and joined up with Confederate troops in Arizona and Texas, planning to join with Confederate sympathizers in southern California and aid in secessionist efforts. This plan was helped along by Santiago Vidaurri, governor of the Mexican states of Nuevo León and Coahuila. Vidaurri was disillusioned with the Juárez government due to the latter’s opposition to Vidaurri keeping funds from custom houses on the border for himself rather than turning those funds over to the federal government. To circumvent this opposition, and keep more funds for himself, Vidaurri declared the Republic of the Sierra Madre, formed from the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo León, and Tamaulipas. After its formation, Vidaurri met with Confederate ambassadors about the possibility of the Republic of the Sierra Madre being annexed to the Confederacy, likely as the state of Sierra Madre. During its existence, the Confederacy never acquiesced to Vidaurri’s request, fearing that such an annexation would infuriate Juárez and lead to Mexico declaring war on the Confederacy. Nevertheless, the short-lived Republic of the Sierra Madre and its capital, Monterey, served as the perfect staging point for conservative Mexican guerrillas to amass and join the Confederate war effort in the American Southwest.

Events finally came to a head in California on August 15, when a Confederate army bolstered by this influx of Mexican conservatives marched across southern California and proceeded to rout Union troops throughout the region. On September 14, the army finally met staunch resistance and temporarily halted their invasion at roughly the 37th parallel north. These troops established a provisional Right-Minded Government of California in Los Angeles and convened delegates from throughout the region to vote on secession, a measure which the delegates overwhelmingly supported. On September 30 the delegates proclaimed California’s secession from the Union. It was admitted into the Confederacy on October 23rd as the rebel region’s 15th state. The battle lines had finally been drawn, but the war had only just begun.
 
At this point, if Hamlin manages to win the Civil War, he deserves the title of America's best president...
Once I finish this timeline (and God, it will be awhile; the backlog of chapters I have at this point only goes up to 1873 right now), I would absolutely love to try to get people to rank the presidents ITTL. Historiography is one of my favorite things to think about with alternate history, so that exercise would be a great window into TTL's presidential historiography.

Only one way for the north to salvage this. Give control of the union armies to Grant
In the immortal words of Yoda: "No. There is another."
 
Sherman or Kearney? Those are the only other two (that I can think of) that would do what needs to be done to break the will of the South to fight.
I think you're forgetting someone...
whirmjb51zl31.jpg
 
*Thinks of all the Union Generals that were actually GOOD*

*Thinks harder*

Maybe Meade? I'm running out of GOOD union Generals that I know about.

*Mumbles under his breath*
(I swear if he saids George Mcclellan....) 😁
 
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