When is the latest that China could balkanize and undergo European style ethnogenesis

[walmart]

What's the latest that China could break up and the various regions undergo ethnogenesis similar to what happened in Europe?

I imagine anything in the 1800s or even 1700s would likely be too recent for concept of a United China or Chinese ethnic group to die off. If I recall correctly the Jin and South Song were going in the direction of a separate Northern and Southern Chinese identities before the Mongol invasion. Maybe something thing similar occurs in the 1600s with Ming keeping out Qing from Southern China and stalemate continues until the arrival of widespread European ideas see a separate Northern and Southern Chinese ethnic identity.

 

[kholieken]

I think Tang dynasty. Tang long reign after Han consolidate Han Chinese ethnogenesis. Without Tang, tribal and regional feeling might triumph.

 

[Lalli]

I think that you have go far as end of Han Dynasty or even to days to Qin Dynasty.

 

[Avrorrange]

I think Tang dynasty. Tang long reign after Han consolidate Han Chinese ethnogenesis. Without Tang, tribal and regional feeling might triumph.

Regional feelings did triumph during the Tang Dynasty. One of the forces underpinning An Lushan’s rebellion and the subsequent semi-independent nature of Hebei was regionalism. Modern studies showed that regional ‘heroes’ such as Dou Jiande and An Lushan became deified by locals due to their opposition to the Tang Dynasty. Several military governors tried to return the region to central control, only to be run out of office/killed by their subordinates who wanted to maintain the semi-independent nature of Hebei. Certain areas of China like the Hetao region for example actually became de-sinicized.

 

[RexSueciae]

The reign of the Song dynasty saw the development of most "Chinese" institutions that became codified during the late imperial era. The Jin were distinct from the Song, and although they made great effort to present as an orthodox Chinese imperial dynasty (and have been traditionally been accepted as such in historiography, just like the other dynasties of non-Han ethnic origin who established a state in line with imperial ideals) the Song always saw themselves as being the true heirs to the imperial legacy.

If you want a split in the identity of "China" (much like how multiple countries today can plausibly claim to be heirs to "Rus," for example), your best bet is to splinter the Song even further. Yes, the Song (and the Jin, for that matter) were stomped flat by an invading neighbor, but the Mongols proceeded to keep their new conquest more or less unified and indeed identified themselves as the Yuan (i.e. an orthodox Chinese imperial dynasty, although traditionally their reception as a "real" dynasty has been a lot more ambiguous). China remained politically unified, and the rebellion which installed the Ming created a new but still unified China.

Maybe shatter the Song even further, so that there is no chance of reunification. Maybe make it so that only part of China is conquered, so that the Jin or their equivalents create a rival China that takes on its own identity (I vaguely remember years ago a timeline being criticized for having a divided China, which I thought was dumb, because China has been divided many times in its history). Maybe have multiple anti-Yuan rebellions succeed, carving out their own states.

Even then, I dunno. Maybe this alternate China will end up like Europe after the fragmentation of the Carolingians. Maybe it will end up like Korea, divided among warring kingdoms which eventually united (yes, in the present day Korea is divided again, but that's beside the point).

 

[Beatriz]

European colonial rule in the south where there are local dialects?

 

[walmart]

European colonial rule in the south where there are local dialects?

The backlash to European rule would likely come in the form of Chinese nationalism.

 

[Avrorrange]

European colonial rule in the south where there are local dialects?

????? Not sure what you meant. There are local dialects all over China.

 

[Sacer Bubonicus]

????? Not sure what you meant. There are local dialects all over China.

The southern dialects languages that the government refuses to accept are actual languages that aren't mutually intelligible with the Beijing variety.

Edit: However, that doesn't make @walmart's statement any less true.

 

[Avrorrange]

The southern dialects languages that the government refuses to accept are actual languages that aren't mutually intelligible with the Beijing variety.

Edit: However, that doesn't make @walmart's statement any less true.

I was asking the poster about what has it got to do with Europeans? Didn’t quite understood what she was trying to say.

 

[Remitonov]

The backlash to European rule would likely come in the form of Chinese nationalism.

True, but as OTL showed, the best salesmen for local independence are, ironically, the advocates for Chinese nationalism themselves. Chinese nationalism soured tremendously with the Taiwanese Han after Chiang unleashed his White Terror on the former Japanese colony. Later on, the CCP would piss off the people of Hong Kong and Macau after reunification as well. I probably shouldn't go on with the latter, since that's well into Chat.

For a more permanent and larger split, perhaps the very latest would be for the Taiping kingdom to consolidate power in the south with the help of the colonial powers. Dropping the heretical beliefs in Hong Xiuquan's brotherly ties to Jesus would be practically required. Alternatively, the European powers can try to colonize a bit more, but holding the concessions is hard enough as it is.

 

[Sacer Bubonicus]

I was asking the poster about what has it got to do with Europeans? Didn’t quite understood what she was trying to say.

The poster was saying that if the Europeans colonized the south, they could leverage this regional difference into nationalism.
Unlikely in my view, but that's what the poster said.

For a more permanent and larger split, perhaps the very latest would be for the Taiping kingdom to consolidate power in the south with the help of the colonial powers.

That would mean dropping the heresy and abandoning their openly-stated desire to strengthen China against foreigners(*), and thus abandoning any hope of actually attracting Chinese people to fight for them, because proper Christianity on its own was very unpopular and alien to Chinese culture, so this idea has literally sub-zero chances of working. The crazy syncretism and heresy was actually Hong Xiuquan's main selling point, not an aberration.

(*): Something the Qing also stated, but which the Europeans believed was less likely because supposedly the Qing were old and decrepit and the Taiping were new and innovative. Supposedly. They wanted a weak but stable China, not a civil war freeforall or a stronger China.

CIXI DELENDA EST.​

 

[DocJamore]

We would have to go back well before the Song. The Sui were the dynasty that I think set the precedent of unification after periods of disunity. So you would have to go back pretty far. Even in Europe, the continuity of the concept of Rome endured for a very long time. For example, the Holy Roman Empire was abolished in 1806 but was thought as sharing a history that dated back to Augustus, perhaps further. Europeans were obsessed with Rome and I don't think a shattered China would be any less obsessed with it's past.

 

[Whiteshore]

We would have to go back well before the Song. The Sui were the dynasty that I think set the precedent of unification after periods of disunity. So you would have to go back pretty far. Even in Europe, the continuity of the concept of Rome endured for a very long time. For example, the Holy Roman Empire was abolished in 1806 but was thought as sharing a history that dated back to Augustus, perhaps further. Europeans were obsessed with Rome and I don't think a shattered China would be any less obsessed with it's past.

Well, there could be a "Rus" situation where multiple states with their own identities all claim to be the only true heirs to China the same way Russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians all claim to be the sole heirs to Rus but no one (outside of [REDACTED DUE TO CURRENT POLITICS]) would say they are one people despite the similarities in language and culture between them.

 

[Jiraiyathegallant]

What if something discredits the Chinese identity? Perhaps it is partitioned and the only distinctly Chinese led bloc becomes a North Korea style state while the other pieces gradually develop under foreign domination and then independently. By the present, nobody really wants to identify with the only chunk of China that keeps the name.

 

[Sacer Bubonicus]

What if something discredits the Chinese identity? [snip]

First of all, has anything even vaguely like that ever happened historically, in any other nation?
If not, I am automatically skeptical that this can work, especially in the modern era.

A good counterpoint would be the Roman Empire. As far as the Germans were concerned, the West was occupied by barbarians and the East was run by heretics... and yet they still claimed to be the Holy Roman Empire. Similarly, the Greeks called themselves Romaioi long after Constantinople fell.

 

[Avrorrange]

The poster was saying that if the Europeans colonized the south, they could leverage this regional difference into nationalism.
Unlikely in my view, but that's what the poster said.

That would mean dropping the heresy and abandoning their openly-stated desire to strengthen China against foreigners(*), and thus abandoning any hope of actually attracting Chinese people to fight for them, because proper Christianity on its own was very unpopular and alien to Chinese culture, so this idea has literally sub-zero chances of working. The crazy syncretism and heresy was actually Hong Xiuquan's main selling point, not an aberration.

(*): Something the Qing also stated, but which the Europeans believed was less likely because supposedly the Qing were old and decrepit and the Taiping were new and innovative. Supposedly. They wanted a weak but stable China, not a civil war freeforall or a stronger China.

CIXI DELENDA EST.​

Depending on the circumstances and the time period, it absolutely could be done in my personal opinion. OTL HK and Taiwan for example could be turned into an independent country and the locals would absolutely embrace such identity if only the powers that be allowed it. Things were shit enough in OTL China that the denizens of these two places saw foreign rule as sanctuary from the ‘corrupt and chaotic’ rulers of the mainland. They actually took pride in it and saw themselves as superior to the poor shods of who lived in China.

 

[NedStark]

Keep the Song-Jin division going for a few more centuries, perhaps? Let's say having a strong Mongols to check on the Jin, but not too strong like IOTL. The Song military is a joke with very weak cavalry and would not reconquer the North anytime soon.

 

[Sacer Bubonicus]

Depending on the circumstances and the time period, it absolutely could be done in my personal opinion. OTL HK and Taiwan for example could be turned into an independent country and the locals would absolutely embrace such identity if only the powers that be allowed it.

Taiwan could do that in the next few decades, as the grandchildren of the exiled generation die off and their successors, who are by and large uninterested in the ROC's claims over China and think of themselves as Taiwanese, take over. The problem is the fact that the CCP likes Taiwan better when it's a challenger for Chinese supremacy than when it is a separatist state.

That's not very much of a nation next to [insert XXXX million people in mainland China], so I wouldn't consider that a meaningful balkanization.

 

[Avrorrange]

Taiwan could do that in the next few decades, as the last children of the exiled generation die off and their successors, who are by and large uninterested in the ROC's claims over China and think of themselves as Taiwanese, take over.

That's not very much of a nation next to [insert XXXX million people in mainland China], so I wouldn't consider that a balkanization.

If the Europeans actually bite off larger chunks of mainland China, same deal would have likely happened. You see the same deal in OTL HK with the locals developing a separate identity to the mainland. The late Qing to Mao era was chaotic and corrupt enough that people under European occupied territories often preferred the European powers to being ruled under ‘native’ Chinese rule.