When Is The Latest A Second Korean War Could Occur Without It Leading To Inevitable Nuclear War?

Since the 1953, we all know that the Korean peninsula has become such a militarized area. And since China got nuclear weapons since its first successful test in 1964, any war in Korea would go nuclear. So the question is, when is the latest year another war on the Korean peninsula is possible without having it degenerate into a large-scale nuclear conflict (like a few nukes is ok but not on a massive scale)? And who would be the likely victor?
 

Tovarich

Banned
That scenario is far from inconceivable even now.

I really can't see current China choosing to commit suicide in support of a basket-case like Nork, certainly not if there was a US guarantee of no US military moving to their border.

Plus the Chinese nuclear arsenal is tiny compared to the US' (must've been just one at some point), so even if Mao flung over a couple in the bad old days then so long as the US can resist glassing the whole of China in response (fallout from which would possibly piss of everyone else in Asia) then you still get your 'few' nukes scenario.

Is this for a TL you have in mind?
I'll keep my eyes open for it, if so.
 
That scenario is far from inconceivable even now.

I really can't see current China choosing to commit suicide in support of a basket-case like Nork, certainly not if there was a US guarantee of no US military moving to their border.

Plus the Chinese nuclear arsenal is tiny compared to the US' (must've been just one at some point), so even if Mao flung over a couple in the bad old days then so long as the US can resist glassing the whole of China in response (fallout from which would possibly piss of everyone else in Asia) then you still get your 'few' nukes scenario.

Is this for a TL you have in mind?
I'll keep my eyes open for it, if so.

What would the USSR do? Especially when both the USSR and China have their falling out?
 

Tovarich

Banned
What would the USSR do? Especially when both the USSR and China have their falling out?

As with China, so long as there's assurance no US forces are suddenly going to be camped right by their border (and unless it's a 'Nutter POTUS' TL I expect US ambassador to Moscow will be pretty much living in the Kremlin, so as to provide constant reassurance) I doubt USSR would do anything.

Make lots of political capital if they can, of course, and probably start reinforcing the NATO/WP border in Europe, just as a precaution (European NATO almost certainly doing the same thing), but I can't see any reason why the Soviets would kick off.
 
The US has a strict no-first use policy and I'm going to assume the North starts a second war by attempting to cross the DMZ and invade the South. Did China or the USSR sign off on this? If not then they're just going to stand by and watch as the US and ROK wreck the North Korean army and drive them back across the DMZ. I doubt they proceed further than Pyongyang before getting a ceasefire brokered by the Chinese and Soviets.

So no nukes at all unless the North Koreans decide to commit national suicide and lob one at Seoul at any point after they build one.
 
The US has a strict no-first use policy and I'm going to assume the North starts a second war by attempting to cross the DMZ and invade the South. Did China or the USSR sign off on this? If not then they're just going to stand by and watch as the US and ROK wreck the North Korean army and drive them back across the DMZ. I doubt they proceed further than Pyongyang before getting a ceasefire brokered by the Chinese and Soviets.

So no nukes at all unless the North Koreans decide to commit national suicide and lob one at Seoul at any point after they build one.

Did Mao and the USSR made this a policy out loud? Or was this implicit?
 
If there was a second Korean war, then North Korea is over and will be reconstituted to South Korea. Part of that brokered peace would be a nuteral Korea after x amount of time.

I’d imagine that during the Vietnam War that if it went any more worse or the US got embroiled in a similar conflict that’s just as bad North Korea would try to take advantage and invade, though obviously that wouldn’t go so well.
 
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