When is earliest Hitler would have plausibly considered USW in western hemisphere shipping lanes?

When is earliest Hitler would have plausibly considered USW in western hemisphere shipping lanes?

  • A. 1 November 1939 (see more background above in OP for each choice here & below)

    Votes: 2 33.3%
  • B. 1 January 1940

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • C. 10 April 1940

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • D. 10 May 1940

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • E. 1 July 1940

    Votes: 1 16.7%
  • F. 1 October 1940

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • G. 1 December 1940

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • H. 1 April 1941

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • I. 1 July 1941

    Votes: 1 16.7%
  • J. 1 October 1941

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • K. Not until Japan is in the war against US or UK

    Votes: 2 33.3%

  • Total voters
    6

raharris1973

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When is earliest Hitler would have plausibly considered USW in western hemisphere shipping lanes?

I have attached a poll. I outline some potentially relevant strategic and diplomatic events that might argue for plausibility at one time versus another.

One thing I do not deal with directly in this post is perceived capability to undertake any such campaign of value at all, which might not be possible in earlier periods.



A. 1 November 1939

Relevant events by this point: Polish campaign is done, the Nazi-Soviet pact and trade agreements held, the British and French have declared war, tried a weak attack on the Saar, bombed with leaflets and not rescinded or been receptive to German peace offers. Western Allies have started blockade and total economic warfare. The war with the west is on, to Hitler’s surprise, despite the meager fighting on the ground and the air.

B. 1 January 1940

Relevant events by this point: Not many more new developments by this point except for the Soviet-Finnish War. But everything that happened by November indicating the war is definitely on with the west has sunken in further

C. 10 April 1940

Relevant events by this point: The Germans are committed to the attack in Scandinavia, expecting opposition and prepared to accept naval risks

D. 10 May 1940

Relevant events by this point: The Germans are committed to the attack in the west, and might envision winning the campaign that year.

See related poll thread: ( On May 1,1940, how long western campaign did Germany expect? :
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...g-western-campaign-did-germany-expect.453097/)

In OTL WWI, the US took 13 months to have substantial forces at the front. According to many responders on the preceding poll, the Germans might reasonably have predicted that the war would be decided with the French campaign far sooner than the impact of American troops could be felt. If France were defeated that season, American forces would have nowhere to land, except Britain which should be starved, if France were not defeated in that season, well then the war is lost anyway.

E. 1 July 1940

Relevant events by this point:

France has peace's out definitively, time to starve out Britain. Neither the Americans, not British, have a foothold in the European continent. Naval operations can begin to enjoy friendly air cover along the French coast

F. 1 October 1940

Relevant events:

All the above, plus the US intent to build up to a two nation fleet and conscripted military is now apparent.

G. 1 December 1940

Relevant events:

That rat Rosenfeld has been reelected and we know he hates us.

H. 1 April 1941

That rat Rosenfeld has conned the American Congress into voting for Lend-Lease legislation. The US now subsidizes our stubborn British enemy. He also had Churchill over in Washington DC for Christmas for pete's sake.

I. 1 July 1941

All the above, plus:

1) The US has expressed intent to aid the Soviets too
2) The scale of US support is becoming more apparent
3) The attack on the USSR, now going swimmingly, might just give Japan operational freedom to act against the UK and US, thus adding naval strength to the Axis and dividing Anglo-American efforts

J. 1 October 1941

All the above, plus:
At this point Hitler has almost nothing to lose, FDR and Churchill have gone to the point of meeting at Argentia and proclaiming the Atlantic Charter for the postwar world

K. Not until Japan is in the war against US or UK

This is the theory best summarized by Gerhard Weinberg, the time to strike back at America is only when the Japanese, who have some strength on the oceans, are committed to the fight, until then, American entry is a net negative. This is basically OTL.
 
The relevant points are: 1. Whats the lowest limit for damage that you are aiming for?

2. When are there enough of the long ranged Type IX, or the Milk Cow replenishment subs to sustain the desired level.

If all you want to do is sink a few token ships, then early is possible. If you want to inflict serious damage then later is practical.
 
November, 1939. Hitler’s plan was to knock out Britain as quickly as possible so that the German Army could fight the Soviets without distractions. A good strategist would order USW in the opening days of the war.
 
November, 1939. Hitler’s plan was to knock out Britain as quickly as possible so that the German Army could fight the Soviets without distractions. A good strategist would order USW in the opening days of the war.

Well, he did. We're talking about the extension of USW from the eastern and mid-Atlantic to the Western Atlantic along the American eastern seaboard, something that didn't happen until the US's entry into the war.
 
"Unrestricted Submarine Warfare". Basically, if it's in the area, it's a surface ship, and it's not yours, your submarines are to fire on it.

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The relevant points are: 1. Whats the lowest limit for damage that you are aiming for?

2. When are there enough of the long ranged Type IX, or the Milk Cow replenishment subs to sustain the desired level.

If all you want to do is sink a few token ships, then early is possible. If you want to inflict serious damage then later is practical.
I already laid this out in the op's previous thread Carl.
No earlier than Spring of 1941 if we're talking about TypeIX availability. With a surface force of mid-ocean supply ships, then you could get TypeVII's in on the party as well. Pushing the Type XIV (Milchkuh) forward is not happening unless we have some big butterflies upstream. The first of the class (U-459) was only laid down in November of 1940, Launched in Sept '41, Commissioned in Nov '41, and Ready for op's in April of '42.
With a little more aggressive schedule (i.e. a "Fuhrer Directive") they might shave 4-6 months off this historical timeline.
Surface supply elements would be effective for the initial period (supporting Type VII's operating in the US littoral) and this would make a huge difference in the short term while the USN was reeling from the impact of such a move.
There is little doubt that FDR would get a DOW out of Congress post-haste in such a case.
This is why Hitler would never "pull the trigger" on such an idea at this point in the time line.
It makes no sense to give Churchill his "lifeline".
It's the most strategically stupid move Hitler could make...apart from invading the USSR with an inadequate logistic plan...LOL.
 
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