Deleted member 1487
Sure, it wasn't the Soviets killing German aircraft, that was the wallies. Had the Allies not done it the Luftwaffe would have been slaughtering the VVS.And? Of course the Germans lost that many fighters over there. That's where most of their fighters were and were most active.
Ah no. According to "When Titans Clashed" the Soviets lost over 24k aircraft in 1944. Based on the numbers in the other link I posted, the Germans lost somewhat over 2000 in the East in 1944. Not really boding well for the Soviet air force if the bulk of German fighters were in the East in 1944.Instead, they get slaughtered in the East as the Soviets now have a lot more German aircraft to shoot at.
Except the Luftwaffe, despite being massively outnumbered IOTL, was well able to operate and inflict damage even in 1945 in the East, while being unable to in the West. The VVS was not able to really go toe-to-toe against the Luftwaffe if the Germans massed for a main effort in a sector. Locally the VVS could get through based on sheer numbers, but that wouldn't have the total run of the field as IOTL if the Germans actually had a few hundred operational fighters. What the Soviets had for Bagration was it, the rest of the VVS was occupied in other sectors.Oh, the Soviets would still get that. The VVS would still be able to seize air superiority for several weeks by maneuvering and concentrating its forces as any competent Air Force can do. So for several weeks from the start of the offensive, the VVS will still be able to do all that. And the Soviets only need one week before they take Minsk.
Weren't you the one above tongue bathing the Soviets for their glorious deception efforts that drew off critical German AFV forces from AG-Center? Apparently the Soviets thought that German AFV numbers really mattered to the situation, otherwise they wouldn't have tried to ensure that German reserves were not present in Belarus. And given that Soviet AFV losses for 1944 were about 24k and they didn't have to face 1/3rd of available German AFV strength IOTL, having that addition 1/3rd of AFVs, including some of the very best remaining German armor divisions, present in the East is going to majorly raise Soviet losses and prevent them from accomplishing their missions.In Wiking's fantasy world where numbers are the only thing that matters and all you need is a certain amount of equipment with no regard for the Soviets qualitative advantages that made Bagration happen. Most of those AFVs won't even be in AGC when the offensive happens, much less appropriately emplaced or employed to stop the initial onslaught within the Army Groups sector itself.
I mean just going from the Normandy situation from June-August 1944 the Germans inflicted over 4000 AFV losses on the Wallies, despite the Allies having an even more crushing air superiority than the Soviets ever achieved (over 6000 tactical bombers/fighter-bombers in a far more concentrated place). 4000 AFVs were more than double what the Soviets had for Bagration, so if the Germans could inflict even half of that with half of their addition 2200 AFVs not used in Normandy the entire Soviet AFV strength for Bagration would have been wiped out.
Its interesting how you ignored the entire point that if there is a German AFV strategic reserve in June AG-Center won't be sending its armor to AG-South, AG-South would be reinforced from the 2200 AFV strategic reserve. So while yes of that pool of 2200 AFVs in the strategic reserve none would initially be with AG-Center, but then AG-Center would have at least double the initial AFVs, because in this scenario without Normandy AG-Center wouldn't be stripped of armor to send south, because the strategic reserve would be able to give those reinforcements to the Ukrainian front. So a strategic armor reserve means more AFVs for AG-Center by simple fact that Soviet deception efforts mean that the transfers of AFVs to Ukraine don't have to come from AG-Center. That alone gives AG-Center a lot of additional punching power they lacked in the critical early fighting in June. And its not like the Germans didn't know about the Soviet build up opposite Belarus, they just didn't realize the full extent because they lacked the ability to conduct aerial recon.
And in those first days in this scenario AG-Center would have a greater armor reserve due to not having to rob AG-Center of armor to reinforce Ukraine due to the existence of a strategic reserve. So there is probably double the historical amounts of armor, as the reinforced Ukrainian Front instead comes from the strategic reserve. Then when the Soviet offensive begins and there is trouble getting as far as fast due to greater German armor reserves already on hand, that buys additional time beyond what was available IOTL to move in the strategic reserve and counter attack the Soviet exploitation forces moving on Minsk and other targets. Yes AG-Center will suffer quite badly initially, but not as bad as IOTL and Soviet forces will get hit harder sooner and not be allowed to exploit freely as IOTL.And the Soviets tore a hole measured hundreds of kilometers wide in those first few days. That is a frontage that makes the WAllied breakout at St Louis look embarrassing.