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1) When did Japanese Naval planners stop believing they could fight one of the US or UK or Dutch without fighting the other two?

a) Once Americans and other white powers jointly bombarded Japanese ports in 1863

b) Once Britain added the loophole to the Anglo-Japanese Treaty (1911) that under no circumstances were they obligated to fight the U.S.

c) Once the US successfully pressed for the end of the Anglo-Japanese alliance in 1922

d) Once the Naval Conference ended in 1930

e) Once the Imperial Navy decided in 1932 or so that war plans only war plans involving war with the U.S. justified the desired level of Navy vs. Army spending

f) Once the Japanese withdrew from the League in 1933

g) Once the Naval Conference in 1935 ended

h) 1937 (read possible reasons in OP first)

Relevant events of that year:

July – Full Sino-Japanese War breaks out around Beijing

September – War spreads to Shanghai

By December – Brussels conference on China, Quarantine Speech, Rape of Nanking, Panay Incident, founding of first pro-embargo lobbies in USA

MacArthur, former US Army Chief of Staff, retired and became chief military advisor to Philippine Commonwealth

i) 1938 (read possible reasons in OP first)

Relevant events of that year:

Some U.S. naval increases voted?

International aid to China rises

Japanese seizure of Wuhan and Canton

Japanese proclamation of New Order in Asia

U.S. Moral Embargo on aircraft

j) 1st half of 1939 (read possible reasons in OP first)

Relevant events of those months:

Tianjin Blockade affair with Britain begins

Japanese seize Hainan island

Japanese Changsha offensive fails

June – U.S. give 6 months notice on trade treaty

k) 2nd half of 1939 (read possible reasons in OP first)

Relevant events of those months:

US aid to China rises

FDR makes increasing number of pro-Allied statements before and after beginning of war

l) 1st half of 1940 (read possible reasons in OP first)

Relevant events of those months:

May – U.S. Pacific Fleet stays in Pearl Harbor instead of returning to San Diego

m) 2nd half of 1940 (read possible reasons in OP first)

Relevant events of those months:

Month – US Two-Ocean Navy Bill passes

November – FDR reelected

December – Churchill spends Christmas in Washington for Talks

n) 1st half of 1941 (read possible reasons in OP first)

Relevant events of those months:

March 1941- US Lend-Lease aid begins to Britain and China) - ? Burma Road?

June 1941 – US extends Lend-Lease to Soviet Union

o) 2nd half of 1941 (read possible reasons in OP first)

Relevant events of those months:

Late July – Japanese move south approved, occupation of Indochina

Late July – US embargo and asset freeze begins

Late July – McArthur reactivated and U.S. Forces Far East, based out of Manila, established

August 1941 - American Volunteer Corps, Chennault’s “Flying Tigers” established in China
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