What's the worst that can plausibly happen to the Western Allied cause as a result of them standing up to fight for Czechoslovakia in 1938?

[Bougnas]

There was little shame and regret at the time. I think it is only hindsight that gives the shame and regret.

No, it already was mentionned by British members of parliament in 1938 as sometimes an act of treason or at least something very negative.

 

[raharris1973]

There was little shame and regret at the time. I think it is only hindsight that gives the shame and regret.

That shame and regret has literally been the battery that powers US foreign policy activism and U.K. foreign policy activism and that of any western ally who goes along with them, for about the last 80 years. Munich syndrome, deeper and more enduring than the Vietnam syndrome.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

The combined might of France, Czechoslovakia and Poland (and what ever the British can scrape up) massively exceeds what the Germans had in 1938

The Heer was about 38 Infantry Divisions plus a number of Cavalry, Panzer, Mountain units and some small Brigade sized units granted it could call up reserves etc

Czechoslovakia had about 37 Divisions plus 31 battalions of National Guard

France had 100 odd divisions had it mobilised

Poland had 39 Divisions and 16 Brigades the day it was invaded in 1939 so possibly less in 1938

UK had 5 Regular, 13 TA and 1 reg cavalry division (partially mechanised) in 1938 with the TA units not then fit for service with incomplete tables of equipment

But after a year could expect Imperial reinforcements plus doubling the size of the TA to 26 Divisions through conscription

In 1938 the heer did not have a Campaign under its belt to have blown the cobwebs out

As Naraic points out in his post a large portion of the 'Gun Panzers' used in Poland and particularly the invasion of the Western democracies were Czech tanks (325)

The Majority of the German tanks in May 1940 were Pz I (554) and Pz II (920) - effectively tankettes with only 349 PZ III and 280 Pz IV (which were basically infantry support tanks)

I think had the European powers opposed Hitler at Munich then it would have gone hard for Germany

 

[Cryhavoc101]

That shame and regret has literally been the battery that powers US foreign policy activism and U.K. foreign policy activism and that of any western ally who goes along with them, for about the last 80 years. Munich syndrome, deeper and more enduring than the Vietnam syndrome.

Yes its given the word 'appeasement' which works quite happily 99% of the time from stopping wars to getting your 2 year old to eat her breakfast a bad name

 

[Eivind]

Both a and b. More Czechoslovakians are killed, but overall, the losses of lives are far smaller. You can only begin by mentioning that there would be no Holocaust. There would also be far fewer dead in other countries.

 

[Cudymcar]

The combined might of France, Czechoslovakia and Poland (and what ever the British can scrape up) massively exceeds what the Germans had in 1938

Poland and Cz were hostile to each other, not allies.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Poland and Cz were hostile to each other, not allies.

Oh totally but enemy of my enemy and all that

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

The combined might of France, Czechoslovakia and Poland (and what ever the British can scrape up) massively exceeds what the Germans had in 1938

The Heer was about 38 Infantry Divisions plus a number of Cavalry, Panzer, Mountain units and some small Brigade sized units granted it could call up reserves etc

Czechoslovakia had about 37 Divisions plus 31 battalions of National Guard

France had 100 odd divisions had it mobilised

Poland had 39 Divisions and 16 Brigades the day it was invaded in 1939 so possibly less in 1938

UK had 5 Regular, 13 TA and 1 reg cavalry division (partially mechanised) in 1938 with the TA units not then fit for service with incomplete tables of equipment

But after a year could expect Imperial reinforcements plus doubling the size of the TA to 26 Divisions through conscription

In 1938 the heer did not have a Campaign under its belt to have blown the cobwebs out

As Naraic points out in his post a large portion of the 'Gun Panzers' used in Poland and particularly the invasion of the Western democracies were Czech tanks (325)

The Majority of the German tanks in May 1940 were Pz I (554) and Pz II (920) - effectively tankettes with only 349 PZ III and 280 Pz IV (which were basically infantry support tanks)

I think had the European powers opposed Hitler at Munich then it would have gone hard for Germany

Good points, and i agree with the conclusion.

However, German propaganda had made its armed forces seem more powerful than the reality. Especially as everything was "in the shop window" rather than having the reserves of equipment for each unit that the French etc. would stipulate.

And the Luftwaffe did (I think) have more modern aircraft than the putative Entente forces. Given the fear of aerial bombing of cities this alone probably deterred Chamberlain and Britain from backing the Czechs, leaving France unwilling to act alone.

A naval war in 1938 would have been interesting though. The Royal Navy had no modern capital ships and only Hood and Repulse with the speed to catch the pocket battleships or match The Twins. French Navy to the rescue with one of the Dunkerques tackling a Deutschland and the other helping Repulse with Scharnhorst and Gneisenau?

 

[NedStark]

How about sanctioning the fuck out of the Nazis?

 

[H.Flashman(VC)]

Oh totally but enemy of my enemy and all that

But as Polnad has no obligation to Chechoslowakia, it will stay Neutral, citing it's non agression treaty with Germany.

 

[Post]

A naval war in 1938 would have been interesting though. The Royal Navy had no modern capital ships and only Hood and Repulse with the speed to catch the pocket battleships or match The Twins. French Navy to the rescue with one of the Dunkerques tackling a Deutschland and the other helping Repulse with Scharnhorst and Gneisenau?

I think you're forgetting some carriers.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Good points, and i agree with the conclusion.

However, German propaganda had made its armed forces seem more powerful than the reality. Especially as everything was "in the shop window" rather than having the reserves of equipment for each unit that the French etc. would stipulate.

And the Luftwaffe did (I think) have more modern aircraft than the putative Entente forces. Given the fear of aerial bombing of cities this alone probably deterred Chamberlain and Britain from backing the Czechs, leaving France unwilling to act alone.

A naval war in 1938 would have been interesting though. The Royal Navy had no modern capital ships and only Hood and Repulse with the speed to catch the pocket battleships or match The Twins. French Navy to the rescue with one of the Dunkerques tackling a Deutschland and the other helping Repulse with Scharnhorst and Gneisenau?

Scharnhorst's first operation was Nov 1939

Gneisenau was 5 months later when she took part in the Norway campaign in April 1940

Renown was strutting her new build from Sept 1939

And its not top trumps - the Germans are very aware that they are outnumbered about 13 to 2 out gunned by all 13 but can outrun 10 of them

But that's bugger all good if one of those slower BBs is where they want to be!

That is only BBs etc in Crusiers and DDs they are woefully out numbered and out matched

And that does not include the French!

But as Polnad has no obligation to Chechoslowakia, it will stay Neutral, citing it's non agression treaty with Germany.

Fair comment but German has to appreciate 1,000,000 plus Poles on its eastern boarder with an uncertain Italy to the South

 

[Jito]

Does this scenario save the Spanish Republic? By 1938 they’re definitely at a low point, but the Battle of the Ebro is ongoing and the Republicans still hold Madrid, Barcelona, and Valencia. France would have reason enough to intervene, since there are German troops actively participating in the conflict. Even if France is unable to directly intervene because of their offensives against Germany, the Soviet Union can.

 

[raharris1973]

If war is declared over Czechoslovakia, Canaris and the Abwehr coup Hitler and try to reestablish the monarchy. Probably a civil war ensues with France and UK supporting the monarchists. Would be a very benign ending for Germany, since they likely keep Austria and all the Eastern territories.

In the very broad sense I agree it would be better for Germany than OTL Second World War (almost anything would be better than that!) but I do think an internal coup against Hitler would result in a very bloody, very messy civil war in Germany.

These answers line up with poll choice (a) Nothing, by any measure, goes worse for anyone, than OTL.

Could they have defeated Germany? maybe not, but more interestingly: could Germany have defeated Czech in 1938?

It could have ended in Germany bleeding on the Czech forts, expending too much of men and equipment for no gain.

That could easily have meant that Hitler would be out.

For one, the Czechoslovak Army is generally at least 30% better than Poland during the OTL invasion when it comes to quantity of men and equipment, and some critical elements (fighter aircrafts) are of higher quality than Polish gear. skip

All of these factors indicate that an invasion would be both more costly and longer than for Poland, if it doesn't get outright stopped. snip
If the Germans succeed before January 1st 1939, then they still won't have access to Czech industries and equipment (not in such a good state at least), which reduces their ability to make up for their losses.

The question of Poland is also crucial if France intervenes. It has been said on this board that they would probably honour their alliance, but it's difficult to confirm for sure. If they go to war against Germany, then Czechoslovakia may be saved and Poland will at least fight on much better terms. This also means that Czechoslovakia would have been net losses and lost time for Germany compared to OTL.

It's the last part that's unlikely, AFAIK 25% of the forces used for the OTL battle of France by the Germans were either captured Czech equipment, or equipment from Czech factories. They will not possess these and thus lack the strength to do a full scale attack on France ala OTL. More pragmatically Sickle Cut being adopted required specific circumstances that would not exist here, so the German offensive is a more conventional one than OTL, undertaken by less forces. In all probability France does not fall in this case.

Found the below table about German tank strength in the battles of Belgium Holland and France. If you exclude Czech tanks you cut a lot of the medium tanks out of the formations.


If you exclude Czech tanks and cut a year of production and account for losses in the battle of Czechoslovakia the German tank force will look like a shell that will fail to pull something like a Sickle cut.

In 1938 the heer did not have a Campaign under its belt to have blown the cobwebs out

As Naraic points out in his post a large portion of the 'Gun Panzers' used in Poland and particularly the invasion of the Western democracies were Czech tanks (325)

The Majority of the German tanks in May 1940 were Pz I (554) and Pz II (920) - effectively tankettes with only 349 PZ III and 280 Pz IV (which were basically infantry support tanks)

I think had the European powers opposed Hitler at Munich then it would have gone hard for Germany

These answers line up with poll choice b), and would probably be incompatible with choices g) or h) or higher

 

[RuneGloves]

Once war breaks out, Hitler gets couped, replaced with military-conservative establishment and war probably ends in white peace.

 

[MickCz]

No, it already was mentionned by British members of parliament in 1938 as sometimes an act of treason or at least something very negative.

Oh, I agree... but not by the majority of the British people, I think.

 

[MickCz]

That shame and regret has literally been the battery that powers US foreign policy activism and U.K. foreign policy activism and that of any western ally who goes along with them, for about the last 80 years. Munich syndrome, deeper and more enduring than the Vietnam syndrome.

Yes, unfortunately very true...and what a fantastic success it has been (sarcasm alert)

 

[Bougnas]

Once war breaks out, Hitler gets couped, replaced with military-conservative establishment and war probably ends in white peace.

How realistic was the Oster conspiracy really? They did not act later when the situation was just as bad.

 

[Garrison]

Oh, I agree... but not by the majority of the British people, I think.

It's hard to be certain. We have film of the crowd cheering at Hendon and newspaper reports but how well did they reflect the feelings of the general public. I think the reaction was based on the fact that for several months war had seemed inevitable and now it had been averted. It took a while for people to understand the price and that war had been postponed not prevented.

 

[Sam R.]

But if we assume that the USSR tries to honor its pact with CZ if France does, I am happy to hear about the worst (and the best) possible outcome for the Soviet Union from this Soviet choice, instead of the M-R pact.

Best (Contested workers' state): The Soviet Union is socialised under workers control.
Best (Contested Stalin clique): Czechoslovakia undergoes a workers revolution which is horrifically crushed by fascism, but eventually as a result of a social democratic vote after the Soviet Union frees Czechoslovakia, its social democratic party decides on voluntary economic and military unification with the Soviet Union. As do rump German occupied zones.
Best (Soviet Union as nomenklatura society): As per Stalin, but cheaper as far as a war goes.

Worst (Contested workers' state): See Best for Stalin.
Worst (Contested Stalin clique): See Best for workers.
Worst (nomenklatura): See Best for workers.

The problem with the Soviet Union is that it is in 1937/8 a society in the middle of a massive class war against its labouring population, with the aims of eliminating the peasantry as a class, proletarianising agricultural production, and destroying industrial workers' power. Historically the GPW achieved these aims, incidentally defending the remnant Soviet Population from fascist genocide, and making a breach in the Franco-Anglo-Dutch capital bloc which failed to result in revolution / successfully nomenklaturised Central Europe.

Because the Soviet Union is contested I've outlined six outcomes corresponding to the three major interests which were capable of organised society wide action, please do note how closely aligned the Stalin clique and nomenklatura interest generally are.

However, at the time of Czechoslovakia's crisis, nobody in the Soviet Union imagined that German fascism would kill around 20 million soviet citizens, (that's more than Stalin managed, quite a lot more, and unlike Stalin the aim was killing them, not just stealing their livelihoods and making their lives a grey expanse of the horror of wage labour). The unimaginable dictated the limited horizons of Soviet Policy making, along with the externally quite cautious habits of the nomenklatura. (Internally, of course, massive agricultural restructuring without a famine amelioration plan is just par for the course when the urban working class threaten to feed you your own balls.)

yours,
Sam R.