What's The Very Latest Slavery Can Be Legal In The South With No CSA ACW Defeat Etc?

If there is no Civil War or it ends in stalemate or CSA victory, how long can formal slavery last in the United States?
I heard one expert say at a max 10 years - 1875 before we can say goodbye to this horrific abomination in a formal sense at any rate!
 
A Confederate victory could have so many unpredictable effects on attitudes regarding social stratification, slavery, human rights, property rights, racism, and nationality (both in the CSA and USA) that the institution theoretically could survive until today.

My own belief is that the CSA fought the ACW primarily because they saw independence as the only way to preserve their right to own slaves after Lincoln's election. Slavery is a foundation stone of the CSA and it was enshrined in the CS Constitution. Even if the institution becomes economically less viable (which it would), it would likely survive at least into the early 20th century. I have a hard time imagining that it would be made illegal until virtually all of the leaders of the generation that fought in Civil War passed away. Slavery probably would fade away as an actual practice, but stay legal long after the economic justifications for it no longer applied. I see this as equivalent to modern US use of the death penalty (it is still legal on the federal level and in most states, but its actual application in many states is becoming virtually nonexistant).

I would also hate to be a "freed" black person in the CSA because I think it's a near certainty blacks would be treated far worse than blacks in South Africa under Apartheid. No citizenship, no political rights, second-class legal protection at best, no opportunity for all but the lowest level of education, and probably not welcomed with open arms if they attempt to immigrate to other nations such as the USA.
 
If the CSA obtained independence since it was founded to preserve property in human beings.

If there were no Civil War (and possibly if there were a quick Union victory) getting rid of slavery would be slow.

The Federal government had no means to do so.

Those holding human property had disporortionate influence in those states,
 
Mason-Dixon line...

Assuming the Civil War fizzled out, leaving an armistice and a de-facto secession...

Can we expect attitudes to harden and the KKclan to become a semi-official instrument of repression ??

Given that, you could get a virulent, enduring version of SA's apartheid, with the 'Thought Police' callously lynching or 'disappearing' dissenters...

Uh, CSA might stay neutral through WW1, but I suspect they'd side with the Axis in WW2...

This has a lot of potential butterflies, including a ground war on 'US' soil, possible attack on Panama etc etc...

One thought: Given that a dam impinges on water rights down-stream, would eg Hoover dam get built ??
 
If there is no Civil War or it ends in stalemate or CSA victory, how long can formal slavery last in the United States?
I heard one expert say at a max 10 years - 1875 before we can say goodbye to this horrific abomination in a formal sense at any rate!
I would give it a little longer (until 1885). This is about the same year that Brazil ended slavery for economic reasons. Slavery would end due to purely economic reasons. Mechanization made large scale plantation slavery uneconomical. Once this occured, slavery was doomed as slaves could not be transfered to industrial jobs with out seriously impacting poor whites. Slavery would then be replaced by the historical coerced "share cropper" system
 
Possibly to the present, if the South manages to do away with slavery-based cotton plantations but not the institution itself. It might be as meaningful as the Boston law rescinded last year that barred Indians from entering Boston, but it would still exist de jure. However if the Civil War ends even in the shortest viable POD (Timeline-191 style September 1862 victory) the problem of what happens with Hunter's Emancipation Proclamation will be a big one. As will be the legacy of the contraband policy, as I can hardly see the USA inclined to yield *that* to the Confederacy even after Confederate victory. An independent Confederacy will see the collapse of slavery far faster than a single United States with no war at all. Too, Confederate free blacks might well start getting bolder with demanding their rights, which itself will put the Confederacy's leaders in a fix.
 
If there is no Civil War or it ends in stalemate or CSA victory, how long can formal slavery last in the United States?
I heard one expert say at a max 10 years - 1875 before we can say goodbye to this horrific abomination in a formal sense at any rate!

Expert in being out to lunch.
 
A Confederate victory could have so many unpredictable effects on attitudes regarding social stratification, slavery, human rights, property rights, racism, and nationality (both in the CSA and USA) that the institution theoretically could survive until today.

My own belief is that the CSA fought the ACW primarily because they saw independence as the only way to preserve their right to own slaves after Lincoln's election. Slavery is a foundation stone of the CSA and it was enshrined in the CS Constitution. Even if the institution becomes economically less viable (which it would), it would likely survive at least into the early 20th century. I have a hard time imagining that it would be made illegal until virtually all of the leaders of the generation that fought in Civil War passed away. Slavery probably would fade away as an actual practice, but stay legal long after the economic justifications for it no longer applied. I see this as equivalent to modern US use of the death penalty (it is still legal on the federal level and in most states, but its actual application in many states is becoming virtually nonexistant).

I would also hate to be a "freed" black person in the CSA because I think it's a near certainty blacks would be treated far worse than blacks in South Africa under Apartheid. No citizenship, no political rights, second-class legal protection at best, no opportunity for all but the lowest level of education, and probably not welcomed with open arms if they attempt to immigrate to other nations such as the USA.

People do forget that there were free blacks in the prewar South. What happens to them and to the slaves who used the contraband policy as a gateway to freedom and to the Sea Islanders is a damn good question. Any hypothetical Confederacy would face a horrible Catch-22. If it re-enslaves those people by force it gives the Union an easy PR victory, if it grants them full rights, that sets a precedent that directly undercuts the very "cornerstone" of its civilization.

Assuming the Civil War fizzled out, leaving an armistice and a de-facto secession...

Can we expect attitudes to harden and the KKclan to become a semi-official instrument of repression ??

Given that, you could get a virulent, enduring version of SA's apartheid, with the 'Thought Police' callously lynching or 'disappearing' dissenters...

Uh, CSA might stay neutral through WW1, but I suspect they'd side with the Axis in WW2...

This has a lot of potential butterflies, including a ground war on 'US' soil, possible attack on Panama etc etc...

One thought: Given that a dam impinges on water rights down-stream, would eg Hoover dam get built ??

I doubt anything like the Klan would have been necessary. Instead the state militias would have taken over the job, becoming paramilitary more than militias typical of the time. The Confederacy would have become something like an Apartheid South Africa with slavery. The Confederacy would never be able to match the US militarily or economically, and with the problems posed by free blacks, the freed slaves under Hunter's Proclamation, and white Unionists it would have very much on its plate domestically.

And if at some point another US-CS War happens the Confederacy goes down.
 
If there is no Civil War or it ends in stalemate or CSA victory, how long can formal slavery last in the United States?
I heard one expert say at a max 10 years - 1875 before we can say goodbye to this horrific abomination in a formal sense at any rate!

If there is no ACW, the soonest slavery could end would be when there's a high enough ratio of free to slave states to pass a Constitutional Amendment. That would be 1889, assuming Delaware, Maryland, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee have become free states. And that southern political leaders don't attempt to delay the addition of new non-slaveholding states or force slaveholding Constitutions on them like they did with Kansas. And that the Supreme Court doesn't declare it's unconstitutional.

An independent CSA has fought for the right to maintain slavery and has it very firmly embedded in their Constitution. Nigh ASBs would be the CSA ending slavery before Brazil did in OTL - 1888. Brazil hung on to slavery for 24 years after it became the last slaveholding nation. An independent CSA wouldn't become the last slaveholding nation until 1888, so the soonest they might end slavery would be around 1912.
 
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