What's the probability of the survival of Adolf Hitler in World War I?

What is the probability of the survival of Adolf Hitler in WWI from 1914 to 1918?

  • 10%

    Votes: 5 7.5%

  • 20%

    Votes: 2 3.0%

  • 30%

    Votes: 11 16.4%

  • 40%

    Votes: 8 11.9%

  • 50%

    Votes: 16 23.9%

  • 60%

    Votes: 4 6.0%

  • 70%

    Votes: 9 13.4%

  • 80%

    Votes: 4 6.0%

  • 90%

    Votes: 8 11.9%
  • Total voters
    67

Hnau

Banned
Adolf Hitler served in the Great War from its beginning in 1914 to to its end in 1918, in its entirety. He was a runner, a dangerous job, and was exposed to enemy fire frequently. He was shot in the leg and temporarily blinded by a mustard gas attack. He fought in the First Battle of Ypres, the Battle of the Somme, the Battle of Arras, and the Battle of Passchendaele, up and down the Western Front.

What's the likelihood of his survival during the entire war? With a popular result, we can average them all out and turn out a number for computing, in timelines with Great Wars, whether Hitler will show up further down the line.

Only vote if you have a reason for your opinion, please! :)
 

Xenos

Even if Hitler was killed, and even his chances were fairly good. His life experiences were far from unique in the context of the time and location. There were plently of disgruntled German intellectuals who could have assumed his role in the National Socialists and taken the party to victory.
 
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

LOL, I thought it was 100% ! Its definitely a 1-in-1 probability from where I'm sitting

But had to vote with 90 for some reason...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

Hnau

Banned
What?! Why would there be no chance that Adolf Hitler would die? There had to be some chance that he'd die... it was the Western Front, after all. Explain yourselves!
 

Nicole

Hnau said:
What?! Why would there be no chance that Adolf Hitler would die? There had to be some chance that he'd die... it was the Western Front, after all. Explain yourselves!
Click to expand...
There's no chance that he died, because we all know he was still alive when the war ended... :p
 

Hnau

Banned
You guys, there was a chance he would have died in OTL. What I'm saying is What If butterflies were included during the entirety of World War I? Butterflies mean that Adolf Hitler could have made different choices, or his enemies, which means he might have died during the divergences. What, you think he survived all on skill? Its the Western Front!!! It's like playing Blackjack, man, all it takes is someone to aim slightly better to kill a person where in OTL they would have missed.
 

Berra

Modern warfere tend to wound rather then kill people since it consumes more resources for the enemy. I don't know the general kill to survive ratios for WWI but I put 90 % due to the fact he was wonded twice and never killer.

I bet someone who can these sort of stuff will give you a better number.
 

Hnau

Banned
In modern warfare, about 1 out of 4 casualties are deaths. Casualty analysis of many battles in World War I will show you this is about right on the money.
 

Admiral Canaris

Banned
Didn't Hitler get the Verwundetenabzeichen (German equivalent of the Purple Heart) twice? So he was a casualty, but didn't suffer any permanent damage.
 

Zyzzyva

I'd say fairly low... 4 years of western front takes a hell of a lot out of you. I'd imagine the number of enlisted men who were called up in 1914 and were still alive 4 years later would be pretty low (I know that if you were in the British army in July 1914, your chances of being fit for duty even six months later were practically nonexistent, although obviously the German army didn't take the beating the Brits did in the Frontiers).
 

Earling

I think the closest your going to get is total number of enlisited and the total number of casualties and then do a calculation. Perhaps you could run the calculation based on the battles Hitler was in.

It wouldn't be accurate by any means, but I don't see how else you go about doing it.

I would guess atleast even odds.
 

Snake Featherston

Banned
Bastard loved the war. It was the time of his life. He loved it so much his comrades-in-arms hated his guts. A guy like that isn't gonna get himself killed easily. It would spoil the "fun" of trench warfare.
 

The Gunslinger

I put 50%. I agree, the western front was like playing blackjack, but I don't think Hitler was so incompetant that it would be lower than 50%... but in a TL, you're basically rolling dice on issues like this.
 
Kevin in Indy

Kevin in Indy

I'll guess 80%. I do not know off-hand what the overall percentage of deaths from all causes was in WWI (and I need to keep up on some other things), but I figure 20% dead was probably close.
 
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