What's the latest WWI

What's the latest WWI could happen

  • 1915

    Votes: 2 6.3%
  • 1920

    Votes: 16 50.0%
  • 1925

    Votes: 4 12.5%
  • 1930

    Votes: 4 12.5%
  • 1935

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 1940

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 1945

    Votes: 6 18.8%

  • Total voters
    32
  • Poll closed .
What's the latest WWI could happen

poll shows five years in between during that time.
If Archduke Ferdinand was not shot How long before it goes off

An if you would like make up a reason why it started the day month year that triggered the chain reaction of war

I finally figured out how to make a poll
 
The Germans would probably have to move fairly quickly to not become irrelevant. Of course a Europe vs. Russia conflict could probably happen in the 30s or something, but that isn't really a WWI.
 
1917 insofar as the OTL alliance system is concerned, due to the Ausgleich and how Franz Ferdinand would (mis)handle it. For all that German blather over fear of Russian military reform, I doubt three years makes a dent in Russia's political weaknesses.
 
1916, Armenia and Kurdistan were already a mess in August 1914, revolts and massacres will continue to increase. In 1916 with her dreadnoughts complete in the Back Sea, Russia will take the opportunity to move into these areas for good, with the sympathy of much of Europe.

Depending on how this plays out, it would be the last time Germany can pick a fight and it might already be to late. Germany can back Turkey or back down. Britain though might be more worried about Russian power than the German navy by this point (the Queen Elizabeths are complete).

Best case for Europe, some big conference happens and everybody grabs a chunk of Turkey in a last colonial land grab.
 
1916, Armenia and Kurdistan were already a mess in August 1914, revolts and massacres will continue to increase. In 1916 with her dreadnoughts complete in the Back Sea, Russia will take the opportunity to move into these areas for good, with the sympathy of much of Europe.

Depending on how this plays out, it would be the last time Germany can pick a fight and it might already be to late. Germany can back Turkey or back down. Britain though might be more worried about Russian power than the German navy by this point (the Queen Elizabeths are complete).

Best case for Europe, some big conference happens and everybody grabs a chunk of Turkey in a last colonial land grab.

Um, why is this a best case for Europe? Why would massacres and atrocities occur in Armenia and lead to a war without the added impetus of Armenians helping a Russian invasion of eastern Anatolia?
 
Um, why is this a best case for Europe? Why would massacres and atrocities occur in Armenia and lead to a war without the added impetus of Armenians helping a Russian invasion of eastern Anatolia?

The thought here is that uprisings and strife (not necessarily against the Turks but just general factions and ethnic groups fighting) were already taking place in the region and the region would still boil even without a general European war, Russia would use the opportunity to grab another slice of Turkey, with the sympathy of many people in Europe. So basically Turkey is an accident waiting to happen and when it does if something like OTL WW1 can be avoided its better for Europe to be peaceful or just have limited wars. Its hard to imagine that the Europen powers would just let Russia grab a big chunk of Turkey without some compensation for themselves.

So: Russia gets Armenia and Kurdestan, France gets Syria, Britain gets Iraq and Palestine, Bulgaria gets a chunk of Thrace, Greece gets a chunk of Asia Minor, Italy gets a chunk of Asia minor too.

Britain worried more about Russia every day and with the QE class battleships complete has less to fear from Germany, offers Germany as compensation for these gains: the Volta Delta, Tonga, a couple of Solomon islands, a slice of Uganda and Zanzibar in Africa. France allows Togo to enlarge all the way to the Niger, Tirpitz has the Kaisers ear and Tirpitz thought OTL the military mission to Turkey was a stupid idea, encourages him to take the deal as a way to justify the "risk fleet" (which he spins as how these colonies were won)
 
The thought here is that uprisings and strife (not necessarily against the Turks but just general factions and ethnic groups fighting) were already taking place in the region and the region would still boil even without a general European war, Russia would use the opportunity to grab another slice of Turkey, with the sympathy of many people in Europe. So basically Turkey is an accident waiting to happen and when it does if something like OTL WW1 can be avoided its better for Europe to be peaceful or just have limited wars. Its hard to imagine that the Europen powers would just let Russia grab a big chunk of Turkey without some compensation for themselves.

So: Russia gets Armenia and Kurdestan, France gets Syria, Britain gets Iraq and Palestine, Bulgaria gets a chunk of Thrace, Greece gets a chunk of Asia Minor, Italy gets a chunk of Asia minor too.

Britain worried more about Russia every day and with the QE class battleships complete has less to fear from Germany, offers Germany as compensation for these gains: the Volta Delta, Tonga, a couple of Solomon islands, a slice of Uganda and Zanzibar in Africa. France allows Togo to enlarge all the way to the Niger, Tirpitz has the Kaisers ear and Tirpitz thought OTL the military mission to Turkey was a stupid idea, encourages him to take the deal as a way to justify the "risk fleet" (which he spins as how these colonies were won)

So a Sevres without WWI? :confused:

I again fail to see why this is 1) going to happen, and 2) the European powers would allow yet another Russian grab at the Dardanelles. You are aware that this scenario means no Turkish nationalism survives and certainly no Turkish state, right? That is not a recipe for stability, which is PRECISELY WHY European states will not allow it to happen. This is either Russia-wank or Otto-screw and either way, Germany, France, and England will not partition the Empire to give Russia the Dardanelles. Europe will not allow the Empire to be partitioned in the Sevres fashion at all without a general war.

The Franz Ferdinand assassination became a casus belli because both Austria-Hungary and Germany were willing to risk a general European war. The tradition of no war over partitioning the Ottoman Empire is far too well established by this point for this scenario to be plausible in any save a Eurofed-style TL where logistics and human personalities are those seen in tabletop games. Oh, and Russia's military recovery would have 3 additional years, but 3 more years will do squat for Nicholas II, who was one of the major issues behind Russia's pitiful performance in WWI.
 
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1917 insofar as the OTL alliance system is concerned, due to the Ausgleich and how Franz Ferdinand would (mis)handle it. For all that German blather over fear of Russian military reform, I doubt three years makes a dent in Russia's political weaknesses.

Wouldn't Russia have completed a new rail network extending to the front by 1917? Thus making mobilization and strategic redeployment that much easier in the face of a German attack?
 
Wouldn't Russia have completed a new rail network extending to the front by 1917? Thus making mobilization and strategic redeployment that much easier in the face of a German attack?

Yes, but without Nicholas II doing serious work to repair the breach left by the 1905 Revolution this means squat.
 
Isnt a Russia wank what the Germans were worried about as being inevitable, and since Russia has been taking slices of Turkey for quite some time despite occasional attempts by the European powers to try and limit them, it makes sense that they would try again. By 1916 the Russians fleet in the Black sea is pretty stout.

The first time somebody shoots some Christains in the region, even if Kurds or some other group and not Turkish regulars, there will be an outcry in Europe, so Russians agents encourage the Armenians to rise up with promises of support, The Turks try to control things, but not very well, the Russians invade.

Now its all about Britain and what she wants to do about this, in this case with this proposed agreement, she has rolled up her borders far away from the Suez, plus she has bought off Germany with relatively small coin and allowed the Germans to quitely drop out of the naval race with some pride left. Worst case: as part of the agreement the Bulgarians and Greeks are holding most of Thrace, the Russians then eventually bully their way into the straits, well Britain has gained a bunch in compensation and they were supposed to be sort of friendly with the Russians by now anyway.

Germany gets a bigger colonial empire, one with a few jewels like Zanzibar and the Volta river delta that she can work with and avoids the expense and entanglements of Turkey which smart people could see could lead to disaster. And she is pushing the Russia wank away from her and the Austrians into the mid east.
 
Isnt a Russia wank what the Germans were worried about as being inevitable, and since Russia has been taking slices of Turkey for quite some time despite occasional attempts by the European powers to try and limit them, it makes sense that they would try again. By 1916 the Russians fleet in the Black sea is pretty stout.

The first time somebody shoots some Christains in the region, even if Kurds or some other group and not Turkish regulars, there will be an outcry in Europe, so Russians agents encourage the Armenians to rise up with promises of support, The Turks try to control things, but not very well, the Russians invade.

Now its all about Britain and what she wants to do about this, in this case with this proposed agreement, she has rolled up her borders far away from the Suez, plus she has bought off Germany with relatively small coin and allowed the Germans to quitely drop out of the naval race with some pride left. Worst case: as part of the agreement the Bulgarians and Greeks are holding most of Thrace, the Russians then eventually bully their way into the straits, well she has gained a bunch in compensation and they were supposed to be sort of friendly with tthe Russians by now anyway.

Germany gets a bigger colonial empire, one with a few jewels like Zanzibar and the Volta river delta that she can work with and avoids the expense and entanglements of Turkey which smart people could see could lead to disaster. And she is pushing the Russia wank away from her and the Austrians into the mid east.

Russia already tried your scenario in 1877. It didn't work for them. Europe has no sympathy for the Ottomans, but it has still less sympathy for Russia doing this kind of thing. And just because Germany worried about it doesn't mean it was actually likely to happen.
 
[...]

Germany gets a bigger colonial empire, one with a few jewels like Zanzibar and the Volta river delta that she can work with and avoids the expense and entanglements of Turkey which smart people could see could lead to disaster. And she is pushing the Russia wank away from her and the Austrians into the mid east.
It is already debatable, whether either France or Britain are keen on having Russia unchecked access to the Mediterranean.

But Germany would most likely not accept such a move by Russia (or the other powers). The Ottoman Empire was important for Germany in many ways. First of all, it was an important export market, especially for arms. Furthermore Germany had alerady significantly invested in important economical projects like the Baghdad railway. Secondly, the Ottoman Empire was an important potential ally against the feared "Russian wank". Germany had several long-lasting military missions in the Ottoman Empire. They were not there just for fun. If Russia was allowed to dimantle the Ottoman empire it would grow stronger by simultaneously eliminating a potential foe and therefore important ally of Germany. This would only increase the danger of a "Russian wank".

If this happens than most certainly without German consent and against its resistance.

Kind regards,
G.
 
There should have been a "Never" option in the poll. While not terribly likely, I wouldn't say it was impossible to have a TL through 2012 where there was never a war on the scale of WWI.
 
Russia already tried your scenario in 1877. It didn't work for them. Europe has no sympathy for the Ottomans, but it has still less sympathy for Russia doing this kind of thing. And just because Germany worried about it doesn't mean it was actually likely to happen.

You may be right. Britain could just push Russia to back down. Turkey keeps her heel on the region and most Europeans are too concerned with getting on with their ever more prosperous lives to worry too much about what happens in Turkey.

Buts it hard for me to believe that Amenian independence is something that the powers are just going to ignore though. There will be revolts, there will be reprisals. 1878 still ended with another slice taken away from Turkey, that could happen here again sometime with Russia adding a slice of Armenia, Britain formally annexing Cyprus as compenation for her "services", but I don't see Germany with her military mission and railway interests allowing that (not without large compensation for herself) so could WW1 start here.
 
FranzFerdinand was strongly opposed to going to war - he clearly saw that this would mean the certain loss of the Empire.

IMHO he would have done everything to keep the peace.

Which would not mean that he would suceed in saving AH.

I believe FF is one of the persone not really understood by his conteporaries and totally misinterpreted by later historians because there is so much "he might have done" (good fodder for AH stories ;))

I even think he might have stood aside when Germany finally had gone to war if he thought it the best for A-H.

He was a proponent of a strong military and despite fostering a South Slavic "kingdom" (Withou´t serbs) he was going for a more centralised government for A.H.

He might have lost the Hungarian part (with or without Croatia), but maybe he could have held on a smaller, but more cohesive Cisleitanian Empire.

But thats another topic :D
 
A Great War may come, or it may not. There were many historical seeds planted which grew into the war, but not all seeds of history end up growing.

As we all likely know, World War 1 was the result of things which had been growing in Europe for years: alliances, both secret and public, and international agreements (likewise both secret and public) entangled Europe in a dangerous web, and one which created the environment where a chain reaction was possible if one party in chain of alliances disagreed with another nation. You also had Germany growing as a power, and seeking its own place in the sun. Germany as a continental power threatened Britain and older powers like France, and its seeking overseas colonies and building up its military to be on par with other great powers also threatened the security of those other nations.
Still, though, World War 1 was not necessarily inevitable. The great powers, or rather some of them, could avoid involving themselves in a conflict, thus making a European war or multiple wars in Europe not a World War. The great powers could signal that they'd take military action if a nation was molested, thus deterring aggression by their possible adversaries. The great powers could see the crisis brewing, and resolve matters diplomatically (I believe a Four Powers conference was proposed before WW1 became what it did).
 
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