What's more likely - a Germanized or Slavicized Hungary?

Which is more likely?

  • Germanization

    Votes: 67 57.8%
  • Slavicization

    Votes: 49 42.2%

  • Total voters
    116
I would bet that, much like adjacent Slovenia and the lands of West Slavs like the Czechs and Slovaks, the Pannonian plain would be populated by partly Germanized Slavs with substantial pockets of German settlement.
 
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WI Kara Mustafa does not attack Vienna (or dies before he can do so). Austria is sufficiently preoccupied with Louis XIV that she is unlikely to attack Turkey for at least a generation, and will have other fish to fry even after that. So it could be several generations later before Austria conquers Hungary from them.

Population growth in Hungary seems to have been very slow under Ottoman rule, so when it is finally acquired, the Magyar element in the Habsburg realm will be appreciably smaller relative to the German. German settlers will be a correspondingly greater percentage of Hungary's population, and could be even a majority in much of it. When the Hungarian Parliament abandons Latin in the 1840s, it may switch to German rather than to Magyar.
 
I dont see either happening witout massive genocides.

I would go with German for the simple reason that it wee germanic states that were positioned at various times to take over Hungary.
My best bet for this would be Hungary becoming part of the HRE early. OTL there was a short time when the hungarian king gained his throne with HRE help end in exchange accepted vassal status however he was overthrown in a few years. And later there has been camaigns to restore this status I think around 1052.

So have Hungary become part of the HRE and maybe install a german ruling class - doable in the case of military conquest. Bring in german settler to the sparsly populated areas - not just the OTL saxons to transylvania and Szepes. Than we still need the massive population losses of the mongol invasion and the ottoman period. Bring in even more german settlers and prevent the mass immigration of others. For example the serbs - like dont loose Northern Serbia etc once liberated from ottoman rule. You should also do something to lessen the romanian immigration - there was a significant romanian population to begin with but their percentage was growing thanks to more hungarian population loss and immigration as well. This could result in a Hungary where about a third, maybe a bit more of the population is german and the elit is german as well - this is crucial. It would be a very multiethnic country with a slight german majority. Thats the best I can come up with but seeing how big a hungarian screw OTL was its hard to do more.
 
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