If the war started in 1938 Germans would not invade France after defeating Czechoslovakia. They'll invade Poland first. Poland would not remain neutral when France joined war.
If the war started in 1938 Germans would not invade France after defeating Czechoslovakia. They'll invade Poland first. Poland would not remain neutral when France joined war.
Poland would start mobilization right after German invasion of Czechoslovakia. Germans would need to invade Poland before they'll invade France. Poles IOTL believed, that Germans have no chance against France and UK, and before they'll proved to be wrong Polish-German war would start already.Yes, they would, once the poles see France's pitiful military performance Edward Rydz will drop his planed alliance with the west faster than you would drop a hot potato.
Edward had no intention of sacrificing poland to buy France mobilinzing time. And only agreed to the OTL alliance because the French lied to him and told him they would launch an all-out attack on the Rheinland before Poland fell in order to draw off German forces. With the french revealing their military incompetence in 1938 instead of in 1939 the poles almost definitely stay neutral.
Poland would start mobilization right after German invasion of Czechoslovakia. Germans would need to invade Poland before they'll invade France. Poles IOTL believed, that Germans have no chance against France and UK, and before they'll proved to be wrong Polish-German war would start already.
It is obvious, that Germany can't ignore mobilized Poland. So there is need to neutralise Poland: either invade or make a deal. Problem is Poland would not agree for a deal before France is defeated and Germans would not invade France before Poland is neutralized.Agreed, assuming Germany doesn't try to invade Poland soon after Poland starts mobilizing to slow down the mobilization. Germany would see the mobilization and come to the conclusion it is about to get jumped. I would expect at least air raids to slow that down.
It is obvious, that Germany can't ignore mobilized Poland. So there is need to neutralise Poland: either invade or make a deal. Problem is Poland would not agree for a deal before France is defeated and Germans would not invade France before Poland is neutralized.
You started your interaction with this thread by stating that the Anglo-French alliance and the Soviets would be quickly destroyed. You doubled down on the statement when you were pressed on it. You didn’t state that the Germans would win in a drawn out fight, you didn’t state the Wehrmacht was superior to Allied forces, you didn’t state that Czech fortifications were flimsy, you stated that the French, English, and Soviets would be rapidly destroyed. You are misreading what you’ve written if you think that I misread it.
This is a blatant lie. You started your contributions to the thread by saying that the WAllies and the Soviets could be rapidly destroyed.
It did no such thing, all it did was state that the French army was poorly equipped and that the Germans would be able to have the same effect with their tanks and a much smaller Luftwaffe that it did over a year later.
The idea that the Germans have an overwhelming advantage in 1938 is ridiculous. They still have to deal with the Maginot, which would nullify many advantages, or pull off another miracle in the Low Countries (Eban Emael specifically) with a smaller army. And that’s ignoring the Czechs. At the very least, they’ll be a big distraction that give the French and British time to mobilize and at the most 800,000 men will be too much for the Germans, no matter how fancy their tank maneuvers are. Or are we just going to ignore the Czechs now?
So the French forces would have received 'vital elements' after mobilization in 1938 and would have limited time to exercise with them by 1939 when the Germans could try to invade the West-minus their casualties in defeating the Czechoslovakians and minus the copious amount of equipment they captured when they seized the Czechoslovakian arms and arms factories in early 1939 which outfitted about 1/3 of their 1939 army!
Plus according to Shirer, the Czechoslovakian and French armies outnumbered the Heer by 2 to 1 in September 1938. The Czechs alone fielded over 800k troops and the French mobilized 600k troops on 28 September 1938. Where is the 'overwhelming' German favor when they had less than 1M troops-maybe 850k? Even if Shirer was off in his 2 to 1 estimate, there is no way the Heer outnumbered the 1.5M+ forces that would have been arrayed against them in the Fall of 1938. These are 'simple statistics'.
EDIT: Plus kiss bye-bye to any German trade with the Soviets in this scenario - assuming the Soviets aren't an active enemy of Germany.
1) Even if it takes several months of training and a year of mobilization, it means that the French Army may be no better in ATL 1939 than they were in IOTL 1940. However, I notice that you didn't respond to the fact that the Germans will be significantly weaker due to their losses beating the Czechs and losing the Czech arms. So it will be a somewhat weaker France against a dramatically weaker Germany. At least the French and their Allies have a better chance in 1939.This ignores that:
1) It took a year of mobilization and then several months of training to get that equipment on hand and it was still severely lacking even in 1939/1940. A German invasion in the Spring of 1939 mean that neither of these can be rectified, just as they weren't even into 1940.
2) Why are you making the assumption the Germans don't defeat the Czechs first and then turn West? We saw the Germans do exactly this in September of 1939 IOTL with the Poles.
That is an unfair comparison since the French won't fight the Germans alone. There will be other forces involved such as the Commonwealth countries. And the Germany army will be most likely weaker than OTL due to the Czech war. So your claim of 'overwhelming favor' in this ATL 1938 - 1939 is pretty weak.We were talking about the French Army in comparison to the Heer, as I cited and have now repeatedly stated.
IOTL there wasn't much trade between Germany and the Soviets in 1938. But Germany was able to import a huge amount of goods from the Soviets especially in 1940 when they were fighting the French in the West. Without the improved relations between the two countries that were caused in part by the Soviets reaction to the Munich Agreement, there wouldn't be any trade improvement and the German blockade would be tighter.Which largely wasn't in play at this time anyway.
If the Germans are attacking in 1938 they're doing it with mainly Pz. I & II plus approx. 60 Pz. III & 70 Pz. IV - by 1939/40 these numbers have increased by approx. a further 500 of each (source Wikipedia but the numbers should be in the right ballpark).2) Why are you making the assumption the Germans don't defeat the Czechs first and then turn West? We saw the Germans do exactly this in September of 1939 IOTL with the Poles.