What would the Southern US economy be like in 1870 if there were no ACW

Two scenarios
1) The South accepts slavery not being able to go into the territories
2) The North accepts the spread of slavery south of MO.

How far behind was the South to begin with in 1860 and how much further behind would it be relative to the North by 1870? Obviously not as far behind as OTL but I think it would still be even farther behind in 1870 than in 1860.
 
I was thinking maybe it would be the equivalent to the North of 1850 in the first scenario and 1845 in the second. It was pretty far behind and the industrialization of the North would cause it to get farther and farther ahead while the South languishes in illiteracy and squalor.
 
I was thinking maybe it would be the equivalent to the North of 1850 in the first scenario and 1845 in the second. It was pretty far behind and the industrialization of the North would cause it to get farther and farther ahead while the South languishes in illiteracy and squalor.

That's pretty likely. The South will likely have to depend on agriculture & certain other things for much of its economy until slavery does get banned, even if a little more industrialization takes place.
 
That's pretty likely. The South will likely have to depend on agriculture & certain other things for much of its economy until slavery does get banned, even if a little more industrialization takes place.

Atlanta developes slower by a couple decades.

New Orleans stays relatively the same in size.
 

Cryostorm

Monthly Donor
States like Virginia and North Carolina will probably catch up since they were pretty much the Confederacy's main industrial states not to mention poor farmland in general. The others will keep falling behind until the European powers start growing their own cotton, Egypt and India, or they suffer a major crop failure, the boll weevil, which will send most plantation owners into bankruptcy, many were on the edge by the civil war. I do wonder what the northern banks will do with the slaves since they were the plantation owners largest asset.
 
Two scenarios
1) The South accepts slavery not being able to go into the territories
2) The North accepts the spread of slavery south of MO.

How far behind was the South to begin with in 1860...

What makes you think the South was behind? Here are some numbers derived from the 1860 Census.

Value of farms per capita ($):
213.57 Free states and territories
194.90 Border states
212.08 "Confederate" states

Personal property per capita ($):
167.36 Free states and territories
222.98 Border states
471.15 "Confederate" states

Real estate per capita ($):
373.42 Free states and territories
306.69 Border states
301.56 "Confederate" states

Of course the South was far behind in manufacturing, but there was parity in farm value, and the South was far ahead in personal wealth. Much of that was in the form of slaves, but not all.

Probably the biggest impact on the South, in the absence of the Woah, would be the collapse of cotton prices in the 1860s. There was a cotton glut in 1860, which cushioned the effect of non-export of cotton during the first two years of the war.

If there is no war, then the cotton trade is unimpeded - and cotton planters are facing hard times anyway.
 

Kaptin Kurk

Banned
What makes you think the South was behind? Here are some numbers derived from the 1860 Census.

Value of farms per capita ($):
213.57 Free states and territories
194.90 Border states
212.08 "Confederate" states

Personal property per capita ($):
167.36 Free states and territories
222.98 Border states
471.15 "Confederate" states

Real estate per capita ($):
373.42 Free states and territories
306.69 Border states
301.56 "Confederate" states

Of course the South was far behind in manufacturing, but there was parity in farm value, and the South was far ahead in personal wealth. Much of that was in the form of slaves, but not all.

Probably the biggest impact on the South, in the absence of the Woah, would be the collapse of cotton prices in the 1860s. There was a cotton glut in 1860, which cushioned the effect of non-export of cotton during the first two years of the war.

If there is no war, then the cotton trade is unimpeded - and cotton planters are facing hard times anyway.

Since we know slaves had value, what are these comparative values minus slave labor?
 
What makes you think the South was behind? Here are some numbers derived from the 1860 Census.

Value of farms per capita ($):
213.57 Free states and territories
194.90 Border states
212.08 "Confederate" states

Personal property per capita ($):
167.36 Free states and territories
222.98 Border states
471.15 "Confederate" states

Real estate per capita ($):
373.42 Free states and territories
306.69 Border states
301.56 "Confederate" states

Of course the South was far behind in manufacturing, but there was parity in farm value, and the South was far ahead in personal wealth. Much of that was in the form of slaves, but not all.

Probably the biggest impact on the South, in the absence of the Woah, would be the collapse of cotton prices in the 1860s. There was a cotton glut in 1860, which cushioned the effect of non-export of cotton during the first two years of the war.

If there is no war, then the cotton trade is unimpeded - and cotton planters are facing hard times anyway.


The value of farms per capita were about the same because cotton and tobacco were more valuable than corn, wheat or oats. Cotton and tobacco can't be grown too far north and so was farmed only in the South. When a crop could be grown in both regions such as corn,wheat or oats the North was invariably ahead. I know of no agricultural product that was produced in both regions where the North didn't produce more per acre.

Personal property down South meant basically land and slaves. The South didn't have much else. The South was far behind in manufacturing, commerce, transport and other utilities. The South imported virtually everything from the North even products that were produced from Southern agriculture such as clothing from Southern cotton and cigars from Southern tobacco. Banking was very primitive and most planters owed huge amounts of money to Northern factors.
 
States like Virginia and North Carolina will probably catch up since they were pretty much the Confederacy's main industrial states not to mention poor farmland in general. The others will keep falling behind until the European powers start growing their own cotton, Egypt and India, or they suffer a major crop failure, the boll weevil, which will send most plantation owners into bankruptcy, many were on the edge by the civil war. I do wonder what the northern banks will do with the slaves since they were the plantation owners largest asset.


Sell them, what else? As long as slavery will remain legal they will be bank assets to be sold during bankruptcy proceedings.
 

Cryostorm

Monthly Donor
Sell them, what else? As long as slavery will remain legal they will be bank assets to be sold during bankruptcy proceedings.

Sell them where, the Southern plantations had pretty hit their peak and were already starting to become less profitable and that includes slaves. Once the Boll weevil hits and destroys the cotton crops the Southern slave economy will pretty much fail on it own since slaves will actually become unprofitable for the majority of plantations.
 

Japhy

Banned
We'd be seeing more industry having developed down South for one thing. And all the troubles one can expect with the introduction if Industrial Slavery, fighting to push out wage labor in those industries.
 
Sell them where, the Southern plantations had pretty hit their peak and were already starting to become less profitable and that includes slaves. Once the Boll weevil hits and destroys the cotton crops the Southern slave economy will pretty much fail on it own since slaves will actually become unprofitable for the majority of plantations.

Mine owners, timber companies and other types of farms mainly. The boll weevil never entirely wiped out the cotton crop and the South replaced cotton planting with other types of agriculture. The land was never left to go to weed in OTL as planters replaced cotton with other crops , the same would happen here. Slaves wouldn't be worth as much as before but they would be worth something so they would be sold.
 
We'd be seeing more industry having developed down South for one thing. And all the troubles one can expect with the introduction if Industrial Slavery, fighting to push out wage labor in those industries.

True, there was SOME industry down south and it would probably grow somewhat.
 
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