What would the population of the Southwestern U.S. be right now if it had remained a part of Mexico?

CaliGuy

Banned
What would the population of the Southwestern U.S. be right now if it had remained a part of Mexico?

Specifically, how much smaller would this population be in comparison to our TL?

Any thoughts on this?

Also, for the record, the reason that I am asking this question is because the Southwestern U.S.--especially (but not only) Texas and California--experienced an extremely massive population increase during the almost 170 years that they were a part of the U.S. in our TL.
 
Overall I'm sure it would be less populated, but the areas near the US border would still be very populous - think Tijuana, Juarez, etc. But they'd be shifted up - they'd be around OTL Northern California, Colorado, Utah, etc.
 
Well with the discovery of gold in California, silver in Nevada and later oil in Texas there is a possibility the population would be on par with the current levels. All these would drive the want to development and industry and immigration.

Demographics would be vastly different depending on policies and who the Mexican government let's flow into the mining areas (Whether Anglos, fellow Latin Americans -many Chileans went to CA in OTL, Chinese -without exclusion acts might see more prominent Asian influence in pacific cities)
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Overall I'm sure it would be less populated, but the areas near the US border would still be very populous - think Tijuana, Juarez, etc. But they'd be shifted up - they'd be around OTL Northern California, Colorado, Utah, etc.
So Del Norte County would take Tijuana's place in this TL?

Well we might see increased Catholic European immigration
To Mexico?

Well with the discovery of gold in California, silver in Nevada and later oil in Texas there is a possibility the population would be on par with the current levels. All these would drive the want to development and industry and immigration.

How many people immigrated to Mexico in our TL, though/

Demographics would be vastly different depending on policies and who the Mexican government let's flow into the mining areas (Whether Anglos, fellow Latin Americans -many Chileans went to CA in OTL, Chinese -without exclusion acts might see more prominent Asian influence in pacific cities)

What was Mexico's immigration policy in our TL?
 
So Del Norte County would take Tijuana's place in this TL?


To Mexico?


How many people immigrated to Mexico in our TL, though/


What was Mexico's immigration policy in our TL?

1) depends how far up the border goes, and how well off is the US in comparison. Tijuana, Juarez, Nuevo Laredo, and the rest of the border cities grew due to accesibility to the US marekets while providing cheap industry for the US as well. If the border goes all the way up, how powerful is the US to Mexico? A borken US might cause a reverse border situation. In my TL where I tried to have them more or less as equals, border cities in California would be much more akin to border cities in Europe.

2), 3), yes. A few, especially southern Europeans, and later Catholic (mostly Lebanese) Arabs. But not as much as it could have been.

4) Pretty bad, before the 1857 Constitution, there was the whole" had to be Catholic" issue. Afterwards Mexico was still sour from the Mex-American War, which was seen as caused by American "immigrants" and the Pastry War provoked by French immigrants. So despite how liberal that Constitution was, it still limmited immigration as did the genereral political attitude. Then came the Reform War, which didn't help. By the end, of the Porfiriato things seemed to be changing, until the Revolution and the American occupation of Veracruz. Once again, the resulting Constitution of 1917 was somewhat anti-immigrant; it has been reformed since, but the only time Mexico recieved healthy immigration levels was around the 1930s, when it recived significant Spanish, Italian, and Eastern Europeans fleeing Europe.

Overall Mexico in OTL was too problematic to be atractive to those emigrating, and when it was attractive it was odly anti-immigrant.
 
Their numbers were smaller OTL mostly due to the lack of political stability and ongoing poverty in Mexico for long stretches of time. A Mexico that holds on to the northern territories will also be a Mexico that attracts more immigrants, since in order to hold on to the north it must be more politically stable and economically prosperous. Catholic immigrants would of course be given preference, but even non-Catholics would still come. In OTL, non-Christians from East Asia and the Middle East still came to Mexico and other Latin American countries, and Catholics still immigrated en masse to the United States despite the anti-Catholic sentiments there.
 
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