What would the European economy be like without the EU?

Let's say that the EU never forms for one reason or another - maybe the idea never really pops up or it just can't get off the ground, the reason doesn't particularly matter. How would the European economy be today without it? Which countries would be 'better off' and which countries would be the worse affected from the lack of it? What kind of economic alliances might spring up in its absence?
 
Last edited:
After the Great Depression and World War II, the consensus of the the policy makers of the non-Communist world was that the elimination of tariffs was beneficial and should be pursued. So we would see economic agreements of some kind. Possible alternatives to the process kicked off by the Treaty Of Rome could be;

  • Transatlantic trade bloc led by US
  • Trade blocs based around the great powers and their empires
An interesting question is how West Germany would fare if European integration was not pursued after WWII.
 
Depends on what you mean. If by no EU, you mean no Maastricht, Eurozone or any other change from pre-Maastricht and it staying the EEC, then probably better.
If you mean no EEC at all and the European countries no more integrated than the U.S. and Canada, then almost certainly worse even if there's a Continent Wide NAFTA analogue in place, due to the individual counties having much less bargaining power when negotiating deals with trade partners outside of Europe.
There'd probably be an EEC analogue between the Scandinavian countries which might even include Norway and the same the the Lower Countries, though.
 
greece would have a devalued currency that would make it a vacation hotspot for stressed people in more fincially successful countries.
 
I guess it would depend on why there is no EU and whether there was some other form of trading block at least, all things being equal I would expect an EFTA type of thing and regional blocks with more integrated markets such as the Nordics/Baltics (assuming no USSR) and the Mediterranean Co-Prosperity sphere etc.
 
Top