What would the effects of an earlier Maritime trade between Asia and North America be?

[Mre64]

So, I did some researching and came across the existence of the Maritime Fur Trade between the Pacific Northwest of North America and Asia, with furs and other goods sold in China. This trade was pioneered by Russians working from Siberia, but I was wondering what would happen if a thousand or so years earlier Asian traders, likely from Japan, China, or Korea, created these trade links. The following questions all suppose that the trade is established and profitable enough for at least a few ships to make the crossing each year.

1) Would this be enough time for the indigenous peoples of the Americas to adapt to the old world diseases brought over by traders?
2) If things like metal working, livestock, and other technologies like irrigation practices and writing made it across, would they be able to make it at least to the Mississippi river basin prior to the arrival of Europeans, or would they be mainly confined to the Pacific Slope of North America?

 

[KMS Hoffnung]

Japan locked itself down in 1663 and didn't open till 1853. So Japan would definitely not be doing any trading, at least in your trade. It would most likely be China, as long as their trips were far more frequent because they did visit America, but it took YEARS. I would suggest a route connecting to Russia before America if you want to make it a little more plausible. Also, I would highly suggest reading the book 1421: The Year China Discovered America to further solidify your query. I imagine it will provide loads of evidence and ways to alternate the history towards your favor.

On to your questions though! If you are saying thousands of years before, then the Native Americans would have become immune or died out. Also, this depends on the Chinese and what they would do. Would they enslave all the native peoples, making it far more likely for a widespread pandemic, or would they trade them as they did with the Europeans? And in most colonial situations the discoverer's people populate the land instead of the natives.

 

[Arkenfolm]

1) Would this be enough time for the indigenous peoples of the Americas to adapt to the old world diseases brought over by traders?

Realistically the numbers coming over would be small enough that most diseases wouldn't have time to spread because they'd kill the ship's crews. If large enough numbers came over then there wouldn't be enough time for every group west of the Rockies (they'd end up colonised), but probably enough time for disease to establish itself in Mesoamerica and the Andes. Maybe Eastern North America too despite the lower population density.

2) If things like metal working, livestock, and other technologies like irrigation practices and writing made it across, would they be able to make it at least to the Mississippi river basin prior to the arrival of Europeans, or would they be mainly confined to the Pacific Slope of North America?

Metalworking, or at least copper-working, definitely, since there was plenty of local use of copper (in the form of native copper) throughout the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. There was also iron salvaged from shipwrecks or traded across from Siberia but this was very rare. I think there'd be enough people striking it out on their own to blend into local groups as smiths, and they could probably help intensify local metalworking and maybe even introduce ironworking. These techniques could spread pretty far.

Livestock, possibly. The big one is horses which OTL spread fast in practically every place they were introduced. Most Chinese and Japanese horses were smaller than Spanish horses, but bring over some of the horses used by Turkic or Mongolic people and those should be very suitable. Other animals would spread slower.

Irrigation would be very questionable, but if there's enough contact with the Colorado River peoples who did use irrigation then it's certainly possible they'd borrow from Asian techniques. Other than them agriculture is very minimal to non-existant on the West Coast.

Writing I could see the same example as OTL where Cree syllabics and other similar alphabets spread very quickly.

Japan locked itself down in 1663 and didn't open till 1853. So Japan would definitely not be doing any trading, at least in your trade. It would most likely be China, as long as their trips were far more frequent because they did visit America, but it took YEARS

OP said centuries before, so this would be Heian-era Japan which potentially did have the capability to explore that far, at least assuming they managed to subdue the Ainu and Kamchatkans first. I don't know if the institutions existed to permit such widespread colonisation. I think you'd have a few coastal settlements directly under Imperial control and plenty of settlements in the interior only nominally (or not at all) respecting the central government. Later I think China or Japan would establish true control.

Both the Chinese and Japanese (IIRC the vast majority of ships were Japanese) did historically "visit" the West Coast of North America before Europeans ever showed up but these were just fishing boats who were blown far off course and stranded there. None ever returned. Such a journey would not take years either, as the favourable sea currents in the Japan-Kamchatka-Alaska-West Coast arc is similar to the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic.

Also, I would highly suggest reading the book 1421: The Year China Discovered America to further solidify your query

Ancient Aliens is a better documentary source for interesting alternate history PODs regarding the Americas (and the entire world). But seriously, that book is at best a work of entertainment presenting itself as serious history. Nothing in it is true.

 

[KMS Hoffnung]

I hadn't read it. My apologies.

 

[Mre64]

Japan locked itself down in 1663 and didn't open till 1853. So Japan would definitely not be doing any trading, at least in your trade. It would most likely be China, as long as their trips were far more frequent because they did visit America, but it took YEARS. I would suggest a route connecting to Russia before America if you want to make it a little more plausible. Also, I would highly suggest reading the book 1421: The Year China Discovered America to further solidify your query. I imagine it will provide loads of evidence and ways to alternate the history towards your favor.

On to your questions though! If you are saying thousands of years before, then the Native Americans would have become immune or died out. Also, this depends on the Chinese and what they would do. Would they enslave all the native peoples, making it far more likely for a widespread pandemic, or would they trade them as they did with the Europeans? And in most colonial situations the discoverer's people populate the land instead of the natives.

Well, the scenario I was thinking was that the contact would happen at the 1000's at the latest, so the 1663 lockdown is beyond the timeframe I'm aiming for. Now, I have read that there is evidence that certain indigenous peoples in Alaska and Siberia had loose and intermittent trade links, so the thought was that a power with the ability to construct slightly more durable ships would be able to make the trade more reliable.

Now, as for colonization I actually am leaning towards the Chinese for this given their lack of desire to be expansionist, or having the intermittent trade between siberia and Alaska become more stable and slowly involve other countries. In short the idea is that they will establish trading posts similar to the early European trade with Africa, so fortified settlements at major ports and defensible locations along the coast to trade with the natives, mainly for furs and the various resources of the coastal mountain ranges that are loaded with mineral wealth. I'm thinking a low steady amount of trade that sustains a few of these settlements along the Pacific coast, which can allow the natives to slowly learn east asian agricultural practices and other technologies, allowing for a massive population rebound once the initial wave of diseases push through them.

If I end up writing this into a story, I'm actually hoping to explore what a sort of synthesis of East Asian, probably Chinese or maybe Japanese, and the indigenous cultures of the pacific slope would look like, with influence spreading via osmosis deep into the continent.

Realistically the numbers coming over would be small enough that most diseases wouldn't have time to spread because they'd kill the ship's crews. If large enough numbers came over then there wouldn't be enough time for every group west of the Rockies (they'd end up colonised), but probably enough time for disease to establish itself in Mesoamerica and the Andes. Maybe Eastern North America too despite the lower population density.

Metalworking, or at least copper-working, definitely, since there was plenty of local use of copper (in the form of native copper) throughout the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. There was also iron salvaged from shipwrecks or traded across from Siberia but this was very rare. I think there'd be enough people striking it out on their own to blend into local groups as smiths, and they could probably help intensify local metalworking and maybe even introduce ironworking. These techniques could spread pretty far.

Livestock, possibly. The big one is horses which OTL spread fast in practically every place they were introduced. Most Chinese and Japanese horses were smaller than Spanish horses, but bring over some of the horses used by Turkic or Mongolic people and those should be very suitable. Other animals would spread slower.

Irrigation would be very questionable, but if there's enough contact with the Colorado River peoples who did use irrigation then it's certainly possible they'd borrow from Asian techniques. Other than them agriculture is very minimal to non-existant on the West Coast.

Writing I could see the same example as OTL where Cree syllabics and other similar alphabets spread very quickly.

OP said centuries before, so this would be Heian-era Japan which potentially did have the capability to explore that far, at least assuming they managed to subdue the Ainu and Kamchatkans first. I don't know if the institutions existed to permit such widespread colonisation. I think you'd have a few coastal settlements directly under Imperial control and plenty of settlements in the interior only nominally (or not at all) respecting the central government. Later I think China or Japan would establish true control.

Both the Chinese and Japanese (IIRC the vast majority of ships were Japanese) did historically "visit" the West Coast of North America before Europeans ever showed up but these were just fishing boats who were blown far off course and stranded there. None ever returned. Such a journey would not take years either, as the favourable sea currents in the Japan-Kamchatka-Alaska-West Coast arc is similar to the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic.

Yeah, I was actually banking on the favorable sea currents in the area reducing travel times enough that sustained contact would transmit the old world diseases without requiring the large numbers that turn the area into a settler colony. And thanks for the information on the native copper working, I knew that was a thing in the Andes but I was not aware of the practice in the northwest.

Right now I feel like the big issue is trying to figure out a way to establish trade links strong enough to transmit the diseases to the new world while being weak enough to not lead to an outright conquest of the pacific coast. So, with that in mind, maybe I will cut the Japanese out and have the trade be via the Kamchatkan people in Siberia to get the diseases and some basic things through to the natives before the Japanese arrive in force, giving them a century or three to rebound and adapt that will let them keep the Japanese confined to coastal enclaves when they do arrive. I know that's a lot to ask for, but I started this brainstorming with thinking about how the cultures of the Pacific Northwest would look with constant trade with Asia, so I'm trying to avoid situations where those same cultures are wiped out or subsumed by the Japanese/Chinese or whoever else spearheads the trade.

Anyway, thanks for the feedback! It's a really interesting topic.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Now, as for colonization I actually am leaning towards the Chinese for this given their lack of desire to be expansionist, or having the intermittent trade between siberia and Alaska become more stable and slowly involve other countries. In short the idea is that they will establish trading posts similar to the early European trade with Africa, so fortified settlements at major ports and defensible locations along the coast to trade with the natives, mainly for furs and the various resources of the coastal mountain ranges that are loaded with mineral wealth. I'm thinking a low steady amount of trade that sustains a few of these settlements along the Pacific coast, which can allow the natives to slowly learn east asian agricultural practices and other technologies, allowing for a massive population rebound once the initial wave of diseases push through them.

For agriculture, the key innovations would be domestic animals (for food and manure) and East Asian charcoal manufacture (for an increased incentive to cut trees plus slash and burn/slash and char). OTL it appears that although potatoes were introduced by Spanish and Russian traders in the 18th century and helped keep population numbers consistent despite disease and warfare, soil fertility was limited because there were (almost) no domestic animals or concept of slash and burn to keep lands fertile. As for what crops, probably mostly buckwheat and millet although a hardier strain of rice would work too, likely supplemented with a few native plants. The former two are hardy grains so could do decently as far north as Anchorage and also spread across the continent to the Plains.

And like Africa you'd see plenty of people "going native" no doubt.

Yeah, I was actually banking on the favorable sea currents in the area reducing travel times enough that sustained contact would transmit the old world diseases without requiring the large numbers that turn the area into a settler colony. And thanks for the information on the native copper working, I knew that was a thing in the Andes but I was not aware of the practice in the northwest.

They didn't smelt it, but instead heated it in campfires and hammered it into plates and other ornaments. Considering it's link with religious beliefs, I think you might end up with something similar to Africa regarding blacksmiths having magical powers or forming specific social groups.

There is also a long-time trade across the Coast Ranges of BC that procured jade for coastal peoples, so this is something that would also be of interest.

Right now I feel like the big issue is trying to figure out a way to establish trade links strong enough to transmit the diseases to the new world while being weak enough to not lead to an outright conquest of the pacific coast. So, with that in mind, maybe I will cut the Japanese out and have the trade be via the Kamchatkan people in Siberia to get the diseases and some basic things through to the natives before the Japanese arrive in force, giving them a century or three to rebound and adapt that will let them keep the Japanese confined to coastal enclaves when they do arrive. I know that's a lot to ask for, but I started this brainstorming with thinking about how the cultures of the Pacific Northwest would look with constant trade with Asia, so I'm trying to avoid situations where those same cultures are wiped out or subsumed by the Japanese/Chinese or whoever else spearheads the trade.

IIRC the Kamchatkans did not have significant amounts of endemic diseases unlike the Japanese and IIRC the Ainu and thus had their numbers decimated when the Russians arrived (and not just because of the warfare/"tax collection" efforts from the Russians either).

 

[Mre64]

For agriculture, the key innovations would be domestic animals (for food and manure) and East Asian charcoal manufacture (for an increased incentive to cut trees plus slash and burn/slash and char). OTL it appears that although potatoes were introduced by Spanish and Russian traders in the 18th century and helped keep population numbers consistent despite disease and warfare, soil fertility was limited because there were (almost) no domestic animals or concept of slash and burn to keep lands fertile. As for what crops, probably mostly buckwheat and millet although a hardier strain of rice would work too, likely supplemented with a few native plants. The former two are hardy grains so could do decently as far north as Anchorage and also spread across the continent to the Plains.

And like Africa you'd see plenty of people "going native" no doubt.

Huh, those are all good points, and I did not know that those grains could work as far north as Anchorage, that does shorten the distance traveled considerably compared to the Salish Sea area.

They didn't smelt it, but instead heated it in campfires and hammered it into plates and other ornaments. Considering it's link with religious beliefs, I think you might end up with something similar to Africa regarding blacksmiths having magical powers or forming specific social groups.

There is also a long-time trade across the Coast Ranges of BC that procured jade for coastal peoples, so this is something that would also be of interest.

IIRC the Kamchatkans did not have significant amounts of endemic diseases unlike the Japanese and IIRC the Ainu and thus had their numbers decimated when the Russians arrived (and not just because of the warfare/"tax collection" efforts from the Russians either).

Hmmm... that comment on Jade has me thinking, perhaps a low level trade between the Kamchatkans and the indigenous tribes of Alaska, which provides Jade which the Kamchatkans trade on to the Japanese/Chinese... or perhaps have the Ainu be the drivers of the trade, if they have the diseases endemic to their population they could both spread the disease and agriculture/livestock to the new world through trade in the north, and as long as they simply operate as an extension of the existing trade routes for the first couple or so centuries of the trade it will be low level enough that the big players won't be all that interested, only drawing their attention after enough time has passed that the diseases are endemic, populations are rebounding, and metal working is spreading through the continent.

I don't suppose you have any recommendations on sources about the sort of ships/boats the Ainu had available to them around 1000CE or earlier? Anyway, this idea is really starting to come together, thanks for the help. It's given me a lot to think about and brought up some questions I will need to look into before I can actually write something.

 

[KMS Hoffnung]

The Chinese and Japanese Junks have been around since the 2nd Century so I imagine those would be perfect vessels. Quick question, were the Ainu the largest Japanese ethnicity at the time? I imagine a minority would have a very difficult time getting the resources and support to create such a vast network.

Also, I think the most plausible way to get from Asia to the Pacific Northwest and Alaska would be to follow along the Kamchatka coast. But from there I'm not sure. Either they could establish a path following the Aleutian islands or continue up the coast of Kamchatka and continue along the Northwestern coast.

However, if Junks got to India and Indonesia by the Middle Ages, what could cause the Ainu to got all the way to America? Perhaps a culture and spirit of adventure and exploration very similar to the Vikings?

 

[TimTurner]

what would the long-term impact on the genes of the people in these places be if you see huge numbers of people "go native"?

 

[Mre64]

The Chinese and Japanese Junks have been around since the 2nd Century so I imagine those would be perfect vessels. Quick question, were the Ainu the largest Japanese ethnicity at the time? I imagine a minority would have a very difficult time getting the resources and support to create such a vast network.

Also, I think the most plausible way to get from Asia to the Pacific Northwest and Alaska would be to follow along the Kamchatka coast. But from there I'm not sure. Either they could establish a path following the Aleutian islands or continue up the coast of Kamchatka and continue along the Northwestern coast.

However, if Junks got to India and Indonesia by the Middle Ages, what could cause the Ainu to got all the way to America? Perhaps a culture and spirit of adventure and exploration very similar to the Vikings?

Well, using 1000CE as a basis, at that time the Ainu were in control of Hokkaidō and Sakhalin, and in fact there are apparently records of them spreading as far north as Kamchatka. Now, that shows they have a decent seagoing tradition, spreading across chains of islands like that, which means we just need an incentive, a chance meeting of some kind where one of their ships ends up riding the currents to North America and makes it back, telling tales of the jade trade. From there, we could see many Ainu traders making the voyage to trade with the natives, providing metal and other goods in exchange for jade and other minerals. After a few years/decades, we could see more ambitious traders establish posts in places like OTL Anchorage and other ports along the coast, and through there we could see agriculture and metalworking begin to spread to the natives.

what would the long-term impact on the genes of the people in these places be if you see huge numbers of people "go native"?

I don't know really. I was thinking that we would see a sort of Ainu offshoot culture that intermarried with the indigenous tribes that were hit hardest by the diseases, and genetically they would end up mostly Ainu if we see the death tolls of OTL, but the thing is so long as the contact is mostly trade and trading posts the tribes further away, such as the Salish tribes, the Rocky Mountain tribes, and tribes even further away will be less influenced genetically. Now, obviously culturally these cultures would be more influenced by the Ainu, but genetically the Salish peoples would likely be mostly native genetically even if they ended up shifting their lifestyle dramatically in response.