In a scenario where Britain rage-quits (read: sues for a mostly white peace) after a disaster at Dunkirk and Barbarossa, without the "distraction" of fighting Britain, succeeds in forcing the USSR east of the Urals, what would the economy of a Nazi Germany which won the war look like? How "efficient" would said economy be? How much would such an economy depend on slave labor of "undesirables"? Would the Nazi vision of autarky be ever achieved or not?
What would the economy of a victorious Nazi Germany look like?
- Thread starter Whiteshore
- Start date
There's going to have to be a massive reorientation of the economy in the 50s-60s without the slave labour and plunder of Europe to fuel the Nazi economy. At the very least, it would be turbelent, but it could be catastrophic for the regime.
Mmmm, I wouldn't want to be the regime with that shit show of an economy finally crashing down.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
You assume the economy isent being demobalized while the resource and labor plunder are still being integrated into Germany. Removing the expense of building up the military and industrial complex underneath and merely needing to sustain it at a partially mobilized level, turning the demobalized labor and industry to civilian production, as well as restarting commerce with the Americas and likely the British Empire will easily soften the landing and lead to sufficent economic growth to counteract the steady decline of the plunder-based "boom".
Personally, I feel the corperate elements of German society are going to strike up a political alliance with one faction of the political establishment or another to create a more blatant, protectionist version of the Iron Triangle https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_triangle_(US_politics) mixed with the ideals of merchantalism. The focus would be on maximizing the industrial and economic capacity of Germany proper and in nations under their influence with as little reliance on other nations as possible for vital/strategic goods so Germany can be secure from both soft attacks (embargo/blockade and sanctions) and hard (all out warfare).
The scenario is your typical "Dunkirk is a disaster forcing Britain to sue for peace and Nazis rekt the USSR without the distraction of fighting the British", so the Nazis were never at war with the US.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
The Americas is more than just the US. I was referring in general to markets shut off to by British dominance of the seas, which effectively included the US due to the 1939 Neutrality Acts preventing US ships from entering the war-zone designated in the seas around Germany while she was at war with Britain, as well as South America. With peace between the UK and Nazi Germany, however, there's no legal tools for Roosevelt to prevent private industry nor Latin America from restarting business as usual with the Fascist bloc.
Anyways, how much would Hitler's successor's policies shape the economy of this hypothetical victorious Nazi Germany?
FillyofDelphi
Banned
That depends: Who are they, what factions did they strike up a partnership/political alliance with to gain their position, how much of Hitler's powers do they actually inherit, ect. FAR too many possibilities.
TheSpectacledCloth
Gone Fishin'
It would heavily depend on who the successor is. Goering would certainly demobilize the economy and seek for better ties to Britain and America. He'd do so to boost his own popularity and make sure the Reich remains financially stable. His overall competence with the economy depends enormously on his wellbeing, especially with his weight and morphine addiction. Himmler would eventually demobilize the economy, but only after he completes Generalplan Ost. He would have wanted better ties with America and Britain, but also sought to create his own utopia for a Germanized Europe. Both men were willing to loot from in order to strengthen the economy and themselves, yet neither wanted to burden the German population with a war economy. Goebbels, on the other hand, would keep Germany on a war footing until he dominated America and Britain. And he wouldn't care if this led to economic ruin.
What about Speer, anyways? Or would he have just been a more technocratic and healthier version of Goering in his economic policies?
I'd imagine a Speer-led Germany would focus on even greater cooperation with industrial giants like IG Farben and the consolidation of the economy in their hands
FillyofDelphi
Banned
Speer is a bureaucrat, not a politician. I honestly don't believe he can realistically take up the position of Fuhrer without making an alliance with some other major faction, but will play a key role in the government none the less as a moderating, pro-industrial representative of the private corporate sector. The exception would be if he managed to snag himself a Reichsommissar position governing one of the eastern polities and does an exceptionally good job at it, at which point he could be a good "compromise candidate" if the more ideological factions can't establish a dominating position to push one of their own.
TheSpectacledCloth
Gone Fishin'
Speer would likely do the same as Goering, if on a much higher moral ground. He wouldn't be willing to loot like Goering or Himmler, but he'd likely give greater autonomy to German corporations.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
Speer also seems more likely to invest in large-scale infrastructure projects. Even if he's not in power, he'd certainly be pushing whoever's in power in that direction, with a Goering government likely being the most susceptible for the glory/vanity of it. The https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breitspurbahn has appeal.
Anyways, what about my question on how much the Reich would depend on slave labor of undesirables?
TheSpectacledCloth
Gone Fishin'
Slave labor is probably still going to be utilized by the Reich in order to 'stabilize' the economy. Factories would still need to be built, and people needed to work in them. It'd actually be cruelly convenient for the Germans to live gloriously, while the Eastern slaves did all the work. I think Hitler and his four mentioned successors would still be willing to utilize slave labor.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
Good, high-paying industrial/factory jobs would likely be preserved for the demobalized heros of the Heer though, right? Not only would that help keep the Fatherland ethnically "pure", keep the more squimish civilians/women/children away from the worst atrocities in the East and secure against crime/ethnic unrest from the slaves, ect. while being able to tone down on the police/military presence (Himmler might not follow the policy, if only to strengthen the SS as an internal security force). As the need to build-up the industrial war machine decreases (You have enough tanks to keep the Soviets back and no other major threats), you only need to convert wartime production back to civilian while keeping maintenance, which is largely a matter of engineering and industrial work rather than construction (Which you can do by hiring and training demobalized soldiers, who can be counted on to be loyal/not conduct sabotage and can be educated in the relevant fields to meet the economic demands of the corperate-economic elements of society. Why waste time and resources educating as Slav in increasingly-complicated manufacturing when you can just have them toil on the estates of Eastern Europe?) Hitler himself was rather keen on improving conditions in factories and saw the Slavs and other undesirables as "Unclean" anyways, and so would probably to push to keep them as far away as possible rather than scatter them among the Volk.
Slave labor is probably better utalized in German agriculture; particularly in the soldier-colonies out East. There they can be kept under the watchful eye of organized communities of German soldiers, take advantage of economies of scale that aren't going to fly in domestic German farming culture, and could be effectively bred to produce a steady stream of workers without reaching concentrations at which they could pose a threat. Think of it as a modern-day version of the plantation system that was used in the American South to keep what amounted to a feudal system alive long after its economic viability started to drop of.
how victorious? they invaded America?! that's in the ASB realm
if its france was defeated and occupied.. England withdraws.. stalemate in the east. then okay..
whats the result. they don't get to de-mobilize . the rest of the world is gunning for them and round three wont be far behind. you need victory before the bomb is developed. once the US has that, well.. hey surprise.
I also think that the salve/death labor will slow down as the resource pool drops. why kill off your next to free work force. ( actually far from free.. the cost of trying to exterminate them wasn't cheap )
then hey.. what do you have, Heinrich .. hey look we now have all this virgin land!
Speer. great.. and no one to work it or run the factories or rebuild. yay.. way to go..
what is the point of war with no spoils besides land.. war is expensive. Odds are it becomes an apartheid society layered from "Aryan" ( or what ever twistd idea there is of that . ) down the rung to death camps.. different levels.. different rights.. etc etc
its pointless .. if the Reich was to continue in said direction it would collapse under its own non-productive weight by 1960...
if its france was defeated and occupied.. England withdraws.. stalemate in the east. then okay..
whats the result. they don't get to de-mobilize . the rest of the world is gunning for them and round three wont be far behind. you need victory before the bomb is developed. once the US has that, well.. hey surprise.
I also think that the salve/death labor will slow down as the resource pool drops. why kill off your next to free work force. ( actually far from free.. the cost of trying to exterminate them wasn't cheap )
then hey.. what do you have, Heinrich .. hey look we now have all this virgin land!
Speer. great.. and no one to work it or run the factories or rebuild. yay.. way to go..
what is the point of war with no spoils besides land.. war is expensive. Odds are it becomes an apartheid society layered from "Aryan" ( or what ever twistd idea there is of that . ) down the rung to death camps.. different levels.. different rights.. etc etc
its pointless .. if the Reich was to continue in said direction it would collapse under its own non-productive weight by 1960...