What would the Cape Colony be like if it didn't join South Africa?

Suppose that the Cape Colony decided that it didn't want to join the Union of South Africa for various reasons and thus continued to be its own dominion. What would the Cape look like today, and how would its history be different than that of OTL South Africa?
 
Longer-lasting/harsher Apartheid as the Afrikaner nationalists now have a country to play around in.

How do you say genocide in Afrikaans?
Surely that might have Apartheid last shorter. I doubt that the world would really allow the Afrikanners to kill off 80-90% of their population
 
Longer-lasting/harsher Apartheid as the Afrikaner nationalists now have a country to play around in.

How do you say genocide in Afrikaans?

The Cape was actually fairly liberal by SA standards. An independent Cape probably wouldn't have apartheid (although there would still be discriminatory laws).

And it's 'volksmoord'.
 
The Cape was actually fairly liberal by SA standards. An independent Cape probably wouldn't have apartheid (although there would still be discriminatory laws).

And it's 'volksmoord'.

I think he was referring to the remaining union of South Africa, based around Transvaal/free state

Would natal be integrated in the union in this case?
 
I think he was referring to the remaining union of South Africa, based around Transvaal/free state

Would natal be integrated in the union in this case?

Unlikely. Natal was the only province with more English than Afrikaner whites, so I doubt they'd join a Union with no Cape. Natal was also always a fairly reluctant member of the Union, and even in OTL there was a Natal secession movement.
 
If there's no Second Boer War, I expect the Afrikaaner Confederation to eventually absorb a portion of Portuguese Mozambique.

Assuming WWI still occurs as per OTL, I expect Southwest Africa to be administered by the Cape.

Without Apartheid, the country wouldn't have the "Dutch and Low Saxons only" immigration policy of OTL. Nor would it have the economic handicaps of Apartheid South Africa. I expect a country of 21-22 million people that is fairly wealthy.
 
If there's no Second Boer War, I expect the Afrikaaner Confederation to eventually absorb a portion of Portuguese Mozambique.

Assuming WWI still occurs as per OTL, I expect Southwest Africa to be administered by the Cape.

Without Apartheid, the country wouldn't have the "Dutch and Low Saxons only" immigration policy of OTL. Nor would it have the economic handicaps of Apartheid South Africa. I expect a country of 21-22 million people that is fairly wealthy.

I think the Afrikaner in the Transvaal/free state won’t treat the black Africans nicely, I could see a lot of them fleeing to the cape or natal (considering there is the orange river the later would be most likely), OTL south Africa didn’t have a multiracial neighbour for people to flee to.


6.5 millions people have emigrated to australia since ww2, let’s be honest, the cape wouldn’t be as wealthy as Australia, and if some go to natal too then it would likely only add less than 5 million white people while including natural growth, I could see it reach 20 with black immigration though.

I wonder, if by the 60s the Afrikaneer Union is going full apartheid, since it may be landlocked in most of its side except the invaded southern Mozambique, could Portugal try to retake it (assuming Salazar or an equivalent is in power), could natal, Rhodesia and the cape either turn a blind eye or even support directly or indirectly the Portuguese since they are the less bad option?
 
I doubt millions would be moving from the Boer states to the Cape. Many would, but millions I'm not so sure.

In 2015 the average White South African had a household income of around ~30,000. Indian Household ~18,000. Coloured around 12,000. I can see a comparable amount of migrants moving to the cape from Eastern and Southern Europe post-WW2, as they would expect a lifestyle comparable to one of these demos.

I see no reason why, without the economic restrictions of apartheid (both in terms of sanctions and in terms of policies designed to screw blacks like the labor-backed minimum wage, white quotas, etc) the economy wouldn't be stronger and incomes wouldn't be comparable to Australia or New Zealand. Racism really isn't good for economic growth.
 
I think the Afrikaner in the Transvaal/free state won’t treat the black Africans nicely, I could see a lot of them fleeing to the cape or natal (considering there is the orange river the later would be most likely), OTL south Africa didn’t have a multiracial neighbour for people to flee to.


6.5 millions people have emigrated to australia since ww2, let’s be honest, the cape wouldn’t be as wealthy as Australia, and if some go to natal too then it would likely only add less than 5 million white people while including natural growth, I could see it reach 20 with black immigration though.

I wonder, if by the 60s the Afrikaneer Union is going full apartheid, since it may be landlocked in most of its side except the invaded southern Mozambique, could Portugal try to retake it (assuming Salazar or an equivalent is in power), could natal, Rhodesia and the cape either turn a blind eye or even support directly or indirectly the Portuguese since they are the less bad option?

Well, if the blacks start emigrating due to the... prodding of poor government treatment, racial segregation and lingustic isolation as Afrikaner becomes the mandated language of legal services and bussiness, ect. then harsh apartheid might eventually be considered unessicery. If the white population develops a majority, which a combination of emmigration, a steady flow of immigration, a high Boer birthrate, and perhaps some application of eugentic principals that were popular in the early 20th century I imagine the social patterns might end up resembling something closer to the climate in the American South. Not a pleasent place to live, but no attempts to shove the Blacks out of white society entirely as they would be perceived as less of an existential threat. The economy is up in the air though; would they invest their gold and diamond resource boom wisely to build the base for a developed economy (Perhaps in the aftermath of WW I? I could see them making a big push to attract German immigrants prior to Weiner going into a book)?
 
Well, if the blacks start emigrating due to the... prodding of poor government treatment, racial segregation and lingustic isolation as Afrikaner becomes the mandated language of legal services and bussiness, ect. then harsh apartheid might eventually be considered unessicery. If the white population develops a majority, which a combination of emmigration, a steady flow of immigration, a high Boer birthrate, and perhaps some application of eugentic principals that were popular in the early 20th century I imagine the social patterns might end up resembling something closer to the climate in the American South. Not a pleasent place to live, but no attempts to shove the Blacks out of white society entirely as they would be perceived as less of an existential threat. The economy is up in the air though; would they invest their gold and diamond resource boom wisely to build the base for a developed economy (Perhaps in the aftermath of WW I? I could see them making a big push to attract German immigrants prior to Weiner going into a book)?
While I definitely think that this was the intent of most of the Afrikaners, I don't know if it is really possible without some sort of apartheid (regarding like larger, more formal bantustans). From what I can see from a census taken in 1904, 58% of the Orange Free State and 73% was black, and that number only will grow since now 87% of the Free State province is African. Unless the Boers had some serious family planning programs for both Africans and Boers, pushing African birthrates down extremely low with migration to the Cape, and pushing boer birth rates extremely high, I don't see that being really likely.

Another thing that might be interesting to see is how Apartheid ends in this Boer Commonwealth of sorts. Nelson Mandela, O.R. Tambo, and some of the big players are born in the Cape, so without sort of that unitary tone that Mandela had after the end of Apartheid, would things more easily fall apart?
 
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