PakistaniGuyUK
Banned
Just seen this thread which seems lively. Have read only a few replies so I'm sorry if I end up repeating stuff. POD I will use is: 1950s when there were suggestions of a Pakistan-Afghanistan Union as an anti-Communist bulwark that would be headed by King Zahir Shah
(Edit: Afghanistan-Pakistan Confederation: I've deleted this part of my answer to answer the main part of OP's question so here goes...)
Full Afghanistan-Pakistan merger
Zahir Shah agrees to become the constitutional monarch and the government resides first at Karachi and later at Islamabad. This might actually work. Country is just called Afghanistan & Pakistan or Islamic Union of Afghanistan & Pakistan or the Kingdom of Afghanistan & Pakistan...
Constitutional Monarch: King Zahir Shah
Government: PM Liaquat Ali Khan and later Pakistani PMs and Presidents
Capital: Karachi and later Islamabad
Foreign Policy: Pro-US and anti-Communist
Probable timeline
Communism would be outlawed very early on by Islamabad. The strongest ethnic groups would be Pashtun and Punjabi - both Sunni and these would dominate every field of life for this new country. The knock on effect would be no more Durand Line dispute and an Afghanistan more on board with Islamabad's aspirations in Kashmir. The Westernized secularized Afghan elite which made more of an impact in OTL become marginalized. This would ultimately be good for Afghanistan as the traditional hinterlands (majority of Afghans) would feel less isolated from the centres of power. Remember the Pakistani elite has always been far more traditional and reactionary than the Shah-influenced secular Afghan elites.
Kashmir
The disappearance of leverage north of Pakistan with the emergence of a single Afghanistan & Pakistan unit becomes a problem for India. AfPak without the presence of OTL Durand Line tensions would focus on merging Kashmir with their new country. Probably a 1961 war which would be more testing for India and further wars as well. On the Kashmiris part, an even more vocal push to be part of the new Afghanistan & Pakistan entity as it would reunite similar peoples and their lands such as Baltistan/Badakhshan etc. Also the Afghanistan Pakistan entity would be mildly more Persianized and this would definitely increase the appeal for Kashmiris who view themselves as a separate and more sophisticated than Indians. India would struggle to keep a lid on this re-invigorated and far more vigorous Kashmir insurgency even more than OTL.
Bangladesh
Bengalis would feel even more alienation than OTL once the Punjabi-Pashtun domination sets in. Bangladesh would leave as OTL but with the unintended domino of Afghanistan's distant northern areas wanting out as well??
Biggest obstacles
* Arguably the inevitable flood of Afghans to population centres in the South - Karachi and Islamabad and Peshawar etc - for better economic opportunities would become a strong argument against such a union and would likely cause tension and resentment in Pakistan.
* The Sunni Pashtun-Punjab dominance of the country may end up alienating smaller groups such as the Hazara, Tajiks, Sindhis, Bengalis etc though its up for debate how far this discontent could actually unsettle the country.
* There may remain a sizeable minority of Afghans with a more Persian and 'European' or secular outlook who resent their country's union with 'tribal' and 'backwards' Pakistan and feel such a union is dragging Afghanistan down. Its possible in ATL these secular elites become even more vocal and violent and export their instability to Pakistani population centres (with the help of the USSR?) or they may struggle to make any sort of impact at all or disappear entirely if Islamabad comes down heavily on them.
Biggest strength
Reuniting of Pashtun peoples, Hazara, Baluchis, etc. No Durand Line.
Pakistan's traditional Muslim-minded elite more in touch with the masses both sides of the border as a counter to the out-of-touch Westernized Afghan elites would result in less friction and prove stabilizing for both countries.
Butterflies
* No invasion by Russia.
* Because no Communism in Afghanistan.
* And ultimately no civil war in Afghanistan.
* Much smaller number of Afghan 'refugees' flooding Europe
* Afghan part of the united country is far more stable and 'boring.'
* Wahhabi influence still very strong but countered by decades of indigenous South Asian style traditionalism which is extremely reactionary.
* Osama Bin Ladin if he emerges finds a base in Yemen or Sudan instead thus the War on Terror does not take place here.
* Emergence of groups such as 'Jamaat Islami' focussed on turning Afghanistan & Pakistan into a Shariah state countered by the 'boring majority' who are happy to trudge along having a lower tier 'Second World Democracy' with a titular Afghan head of state.
* Lack of War and Paranoia and greater stability from the 1950s onwards (apart from the Kashmir problem) means that both countries could have much more consistent and stable economic development if the flow of people from north to south is somehow managed properly.
Culture
* A more South Asia oriented Afghanistan: the Central Asian/Iranic influence diminishes. Urdu and Pashto are made joint official languages. More cross-cultural influence between Punjab/Sindh on one hand and Pashtuns/Northern Afghans on the other
* A more traditional and boring Afghanistan but also a more stable Afghanistan: Islamabad's influence will encourage a more stable and traditional Afghanistan to emerge with alien concepts like 'Communism' and 'Women wearing Short Skirts in public' remaining just that - alien concepts!
* Music & Cinema: Stronger Afghan Music and Cinema scene. Lollywood emerges as the Urdu/ Punjabi speaking Cinema as OTL but a more vigorous Afghan cinema scene with possible "Kabulwood" created - something absent in OTL.
* Sports: much earlier Afghan interest in Cricket. Possibly many more talented and good-looking Imran Khan-esque Cricket Playboys emerging from this part of the world with the knock-on effect of making cricket even more popular. If Afghanistan-Pakistan manage to win a Cricket World Cup this would cement the sport in both nations even if they eventually split.
* Tourism/Hippy Trail: Much more tourism to both countries. The Hippy Trail does not disappear and encourages Western tourists to the country, despite official attempts to crack down on the narcotics industry.
Best case for Afghanistan and Pakistan based on the original proposal
1950 - 1995 Union of Afghanistan & Pakistan helps stabilize Afghanistan
1995 Peaceful and amicable split of the country on the Durand Line after the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union makes the original point of the Union redundant. Afghanistan is left with a boring and economically stable country which is Islamic and traditional but no militancy is present. Pakistan more or less same as OTL unless the Union somehow manages to gain Kashmir - in which case it may be better than OTL.
(Edit: Afghanistan-Pakistan Confederation: I've deleted this part of my answer to answer the main part of OP's question so here goes...)
Full Afghanistan-Pakistan merger
Zahir Shah agrees to become the constitutional monarch and the government resides first at Karachi and later at Islamabad. This might actually work. Country is just called Afghanistan & Pakistan or Islamic Union of Afghanistan & Pakistan or the Kingdom of Afghanistan & Pakistan...
Constitutional Monarch: King Zahir Shah
Government: PM Liaquat Ali Khan and later Pakistani PMs and Presidents
Capital: Karachi and later Islamabad
Foreign Policy: Pro-US and anti-Communist
Probable timeline
Communism would be outlawed very early on by Islamabad. The strongest ethnic groups would be Pashtun and Punjabi - both Sunni and these would dominate every field of life for this new country. The knock on effect would be no more Durand Line dispute and an Afghanistan more on board with Islamabad's aspirations in Kashmir. The Westernized secularized Afghan elite which made more of an impact in OTL become marginalized. This would ultimately be good for Afghanistan as the traditional hinterlands (majority of Afghans) would feel less isolated from the centres of power. Remember the Pakistani elite has always been far more traditional and reactionary than the Shah-influenced secular Afghan elites.
Kashmir
The disappearance of leverage north of Pakistan with the emergence of a single Afghanistan & Pakistan unit becomes a problem for India. AfPak without the presence of OTL Durand Line tensions would focus on merging Kashmir with their new country. Probably a 1961 war which would be more testing for India and further wars as well. On the Kashmiris part, an even more vocal push to be part of the new Afghanistan & Pakistan entity as it would reunite similar peoples and their lands such as Baltistan/Badakhshan etc. Also the Afghanistan Pakistan entity would be mildly more Persianized and this would definitely increase the appeal for Kashmiris who view themselves as a separate and more sophisticated than Indians. India would struggle to keep a lid on this re-invigorated and far more vigorous Kashmir insurgency even more than OTL.
Bangladesh
Bengalis would feel even more alienation than OTL once the Punjabi-Pashtun domination sets in. Bangladesh would leave as OTL but with the unintended domino of Afghanistan's distant northern areas wanting out as well??
Biggest obstacles
* Arguably the inevitable flood of Afghans to population centres in the South - Karachi and Islamabad and Peshawar etc - for better economic opportunities would become a strong argument against such a union and would likely cause tension and resentment in Pakistan.
* The Sunni Pashtun-Punjab dominance of the country may end up alienating smaller groups such as the Hazara, Tajiks, Sindhis, Bengalis etc though its up for debate how far this discontent could actually unsettle the country.
* There may remain a sizeable minority of Afghans with a more Persian and 'European' or secular outlook who resent their country's union with 'tribal' and 'backwards' Pakistan and feel such a union is dragging Afghanistan down. Its possible in ATL these secular elites become even more vocal and violent and export their instability to Pakistani population centres (with the help of the USSR?) or they may struggle to make any sort of impact at all or disappear entirely if Islamabad comes down heavily on them.
Biggest strength
Reuniting of Pashtun peoples, Hazara, Baluchis, etc. No Durand Line.
Pakistan's traditional Muslim-minded elite more in touch with the masses both sides of the border as a counter to the out-of-touch Westernized Afghan elites would result in less friction and prove stabilizing for both countries.
Butterflies
* No invasion by Russia.
* Because no Communism in Afghanistan.
* And ultimately no civil war in Afghanistan.
* Much smaller number of Afghan 'refugees' flooding Europe
* Afghan part of the united country is far more stable and 'boring.'
* Wahhabi influence still very strong but countered by decades of indigenous South Asian style traditionalism which is extremely reactionary.
* Osama Bin Ladin if he emerges finds a base in Yemen or Sudan instead thus the War on Terror does not take place here.
* Emergence of groups such as 'Jamaat Islami' focussed on turning Afghanistan & Pakistan into a Shariah state countered by the 'boring majority' who are happy to trudge along having a lower tier 'Second World Democracy' with a titular Afghan head of state.
* Lack of War and Paranoia and greater stability from the 1950s onwards (apart from the Kashmir problem) means that both countries could have much more consistent and stable economic development if the flow of people from north to south is somehow managed properly.
Culture
* A more South Asia oriented Afghanistan: the Central Asian/Iranic influence diminishes. Urdu and Pashto are made joint official languages. More cross-cultural influence between Punjab/Sindh on one hand and Pashtuns/Northern Afghans on the other
* A more traditional and boring Afghanistan but also a more stable Afghanistan: Islamabad's influence will encourage a more stable and traditional Afghanistan to emerge with alien concepts like 'Communism' and 'Women wearing Short Skirts in public' remaining just that - alien concepts!
* Music & Cinema: Stronger Afghan Music and Cinema scene. Lollywood emerges as the Urdu/ Punjabi speaking Cinema as OTL but a more vigorous Afghan cinema scene with possible "Kabulwood" created - something absent in OTL.
* Sports: much earlier Afghan interest in Cricket. Possibly many more talented and good-looking Imran Khan-esque Cricket Playboys emerging from this part of the world with the knock-on effect of making cricket even more popular. If Afghanistan-Pakistan manage to win a Cricket World Cup this would cement the sport in both nations even if they eventually split.
* Tourism/Hippy Trail: Much more tourism to both countries. The Hippy Trail does not disappear and encourages Western tourists to the country, despite official attempts to crack down on the narcotics industry.
Best case for Afghanistan and Pakistan based on the original proposal
1950 - 1995 Union of Afghanistan & Pakistan helps stabilize Afghanistan
1995 Peaceful and amicable split of the country on the Durand Line after the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union makes the original point of the Union redundant. Afghanistan is left with a boring and economically stable country which is Islamic and traditional but no militancy is present. Pakistan more or less same as OTL unless the Union somehow manages to gain Kashmir - in which case it may be better than OTL.
Last edited:
