What Would Politics and Society Look Like if Pakistan and Afghanistan Were One Country?

[Shutenmaru]

So two potential PoDs. First is that the British annex Afghanistan into the British Raj (would need some way to butterfly away the Great Game and Afghanistan's status as a buffer). Both Russia and Britain certainly had the ability to conquer Afghanistan. And once independence comes around Afghanistan is rolled into the concept of a homeland for the Muslims of Northwest British India. The entire country would perhaps be called Pakistan in such a scenario.

Second PoD is in the 1950s when there were suggestions of a Pakistan-Afghanistan Union as an anti-Communist bulwark that would be headed by King Zahir Shah as a constitutional monarch. But this proposal was rejected by the Pakistani side and the rest is history. The former scenario seems more likely to me as the latter scenario seems more fragile.

But leaving aside the PoD, that is less important, I don't want discussion on whether it could happen or not, I want to focus this discussion on what such a union would look like. What would the politics and society look like if Pakistan and Afghanistan were one county. Pashtuns would number 60 Million in today's numbers compared to 90 Million Punjabis (or 65 Million if you subtract Seraikis and Hindkowans). Pashtuns definitely could be as dominant as Punjabis would be in this country. I can imagine Islamabad being constructed next to Peshawar instead of Rawalpindi as a more central location for a capital. Perhaps Farsi would be the official language or co-official with Urdu. After all Farsi has been the lingua franca of this region for centuries before the British came (even used by the Sikh Empire).

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

I imagine that a Pakistan which boarders the USSR would tread much more carefully around its border disputes with India.

 

[_12]

Would such a state frame itself as the successor to the Mughals and thus claim Delhi?

 

[Deleted member 94680]

The entire country would perhaps be called Pakistan in such a scenario.

I doubt it. It’d be Afghanistan.

Second PoD is in the 1950s when there were suggestions of a Pakistan-Afghanistan Union as an anti-Communist bulwark that would be headed by King Zahir Shah as a constitutional monarch. But this proposal was rejected by the Pakistani side and the rest is history. The former scenario seems more likely to me as the latter scenario seems more fragile.

If that happens it’d be a pretty shaky foundation for a country to formed on. Domestic strife and terrorist campaigns would be the order of the day. Unless it’s a pretty weak federal state allowing a lot of autonomy for the constituent states.

I want to focus this discussion on what such a union would look like. What would the politics and society look like if Pakistan and Afghanistan were one county. Pashtuns would number 60 Million in today's numbers compared to 90 Million Punjabis (or 65 Million if you subtract Seraikis and Hindkowans). Pashtuns definitely could be as dominant as Punjabis would be in this country. I can imagine Islamabad being constructed next to Peshawar instead of Rawalpindi as a more central location for a capital. Perhaps Farsi would be the official language or co-official with Urdu.

You’d probably have a lot of tribal identities as the majority of the regions that OTL caused the cross border issues in Afghan/Pakistan would be within the same country here. Language would be heavily regionalised and “internationally” or that used by government would be Pashto or Dari as that was the language of the Barakzais

 

[WhiteDragon25]

The closest historical precedent for a country that controlled (and only controlled) what would be the modern territories of both Afghanistan and Pakistan would be the Durrani Empire, which existed between 1747 to 1823 (and briefly again in 1839 to 1842, for some reason).

I don't know what would be a good post-1900 divergence point that would allow for a (re)unification of Afghanistan and Pakistan in this sort of arrangement, but in such a scenario the newly-formed country could be named Durranistan as a historical callback.

 

[walmart]

I doubt it. It’d be Afghanistan

The A in Pakistan stands for Afghan .

 

[Deleted member 94680]

The A in Pakistan stands for Afghan .

I know. But Afghanistan already exists, Pakistan was an artificial creation of the Raj and Muslim Indian politicians. Theses Muslim regions of India are joining Afghanistan and the Afghani regime is remaining in power. I doubt that the country would rename itself if smaller regions are joining it.

 

[walmart]

Theses Muslim regions of India are joining Afghanistan and the Afghani regime is remaining in power.

Other way around, Pakistan is way more populated and powerful than Afghanistan.

 

[Shutenmaru]

I know. But Afghanistan already exists, Pakistan was an artificial creation of the Raj and Muslim Indian politicians. Theses Muslim regions of India are joining Afghanistan and the Afghani regime is remaining in power. I doubt that the country would rename itself if smaller regions are joining it.

That wasn't the first PoD, the first PoD was the British conquering Afghanistan and incorporating it into the British Raj. In this scenario Afghanistan is included in the demands of a separate Muslim homeland. The word "Pak" is Farsi anyways so it wouldn't be out of place if Pashtuns and Tajiks are included in this homeland.

Afghan is an alternate historic term for Pashtun (only changing meaning now that Afghan is a nationality) so it would not apply to a multiethnic country with many other groups.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Other way around, Pakistan is way more populated and powerful than Afghanistan.

But there is no Pakistan in this scenario, it’s Sind, parts of Punjab or whatever joining the kingdom of Afghanistan.

 

[Atterdag]

Would there be a Soviet invasion? When did Pak get nukes?

 

[walmart]

But there is no Pakistan in this scenario, it’s Sind, parts of Punjab or whatever joining the kingdom of Afghanistan.

No even with Afghanistan, the Pashtuns would not be dominate to the point of simply annexing everyone. Punjabis would still be the most dominate part of Pakistan here.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

No even with Afghanistan, the Pashtuns would not be dominate to the point of simply annexing everyone. Punjabis would still be the most dominate part of Pakistan here.

I never mentioned annexing anyone. But the pashtuns are the royal family and hence the government

 

[walmart]

I never mentioned annexing anyone. But the pashtuns are the royal family and hence the government

Afghanistan was a constitutional monarchy while Pakistan is a republic and the stronger half . There is no reason for a Pashtun dominated state in a democratic state.

 

[Shehryar]

the next day after Pakistan and Afghanistan join to form one country. the military launch a coup and take out the royal family
if not the next day, a few years, after the royal family start to mismanage the economy and alienate them.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Afghanistan was a constitutional monarchy while Pakistan is a republic and the stronger half . There is no reason for a Pashtun dominated state in a democratic state.

There is no Pakistan in this scenario

 

[walmart]

There is no Pakistan in this scenario

I’m lost here . What scenario do you have in mind ?

 

[Emperor-of-New-Zealand]

Afghanistan was a constitutional monarchy while Pakistan is a republic and the stronger half . There is no reason for a Pashtun dominated state in a democratic state.

What Stenz is saying is that if we take the first POD (Afghanistan being absorbed into the British Raj, and later being released with OTL Pakistani regions joined to it) then Pakistan literally never existed, so the resulting state would not be called Pakistan. Under the Raj the area we know as Pakistan was made of up a bunch of local principalities and chieftains and British governates, whereas Afghanistan was a unified kingdom (and presumably still would be in this scenario as part of the Raj, akin to say Hyderabad or something). So it follows that in the interest of creating a Muslim state when the Raj is dissolved the British would take the existing power structure of the existing Kingdom of Afghanistan and simply add to that the pieces of Northwest India that they wanted to.

Pakistan doesn't factor into it and is wholly irrelevant to the discussion, because in this scenario it simply doesn't exist and never did.

 

[walmart]

So it follows that in the interest of creating a Muslim state when the Raj is dissolved the British would take the existing power structure of the existing Kingdom of Afghanistan and simply add to that the pieces of Northwest India that they wanted to.

Britain opposed the creation of Pakistan. In addition Britainh as no reason to favor the Afghan monarchy over the Muslim league and as previous mentioned Punjabis and Sindhis and would still be the majority of the population, economy, and dominate political groups.

 

[Emperor-of-New-Zealand]

Britain opposed the creation of Pakistan. In addition Britain as no reason to favor the Afghan monarchy over the Muslim league.

Oh, look, I don't really care - I was just lurking, read the exchange, and thought I might as well clarify it for you since you seemed to be getting confused. Otherwise I don't have a horse in this race.