German or American. Germany went on a shopping spree after Bismark left office because he was opposed to colonies, once Caprivi was in it was free for all, Germany picked up everything that was left over. The US likewise was late, but was able to pickup a lot through the Spanish-American War, which also there's no coincidence that Hawai'i was annexed at the same time, and then the Guana Act, America pretty much said "what little islands are not already claimed- they be mine!". Since it was the Spanish-American War that led to the Spanish selling Micronesia (Palau, Northern Marianas, and Marshall Islands included) to the Germans, this would be butterflied away, but then again if there is no Spanish Philippines there's little reason for a Spanish Micronesia and Guam to begin with. But if the Spanish aren't in the Philippines, they have to be SOMEWHERE otherwise... where are you sending those big convoys of Mexican and Peruvian silver and gold to trade with China?
I dont see the British in the Philippines because it's either redundant or off the trade routes since they have Singapore and Hong Kong as the British are going to China from the west (India, Egypt, South Africa) as opposed to the Spanish going there from Mexico and Peru. The British could have kept Manila and the Philippines after the Napoleonic Wars but chose not to for a reason. Maybe the French. I don't see the Philippines staying independent or the Japanese taking it before the Europeans.