What would my CSA Victory timeline peace negotiations look like in my scenario?

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: Before 1900' started by Jabe Shepherd, Apr 15, 2019.

  1. Jabe Shepherd Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2018
    Hey everyone, i was wondering if you could give me an idea of what the terms of the peace negotiations of the USA and the CSA look like in my scenario of a Confederate Victory. So here it goes...

    The Confederate campaign in New Mexico goes really well and they eventually get to California and take control of it and it's gold and all it's resources. The gold is then shipped to Europe, where Britain and France recognize the CSA after seeing the gold and conquering California. Britain and France then warn the USA to end the blockade or face naval war with Britain and France. Lincoln seeing this is a lose lose situation agrees to a ceasfire with the South. Also Jefferson Davis makes sure Kentucky's neutrality is not violated and Leonidas Polk doesn't invade it, the ceasefire occurs in April of 1863

    What would the terms of the peace be?, What would happen to the border states? Would Britain and France make any concessions?

    Tell me what would it be Thanks!
     
  2. m0585 Well-Known Member

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    Dec 11, 2015
    The Confederacy was stretched just maintaining a presence in the Southwest. Even if they won at Glorieta Pass, they would soon be confronted by the Union' California Column.
     
  3. Zach Rowe New Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2019
    I'm pretty sure the CSA would've accepted nearly any peace terms, most likely, the CSA would've just kept the territory they conquered & the US would recognize southern independence, perhaps Lincoln would demand California & New Mexico back if he wanted to be that demanding.
     
  4. 606jae Well-Known Member

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    Apr 24, 2012
    if Kentucky remains neutral I can see a plebiscite for the state
     
  5. m0585 Well-Known Member

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    Dec 11, 2015
    I apologise, but I really don't see this as being plausible.
     
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  6. Alex Zetsu Well-Known Member

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    May 21, 2017
    No British help, no Southern victory
     
  7. marathag Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 2, 2013
    Outside of the Wank in the West. here is what 1862 looked like
    [​IMG] Texas, and the uncaptured bits of Arkansas and Louisiana would be the sole source of Sibley's supplies, 1200 miles away.
    [​IMG] and much of the railnet isn't usable to supply a Pacific campaign with Corinth captured and Vicksburg under seige
     
  8. Blobfish Shoom

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2018
    I don't feel it's fair to judge plausibility at the moment. It's not like he's made the timeline yet, so certain aspects could be explained down the road and the idea is quite interesting. As for the original question, California is a no go even if the Confederates do take it, but I think they can realistically take the New Mexico territory in a peace deal. I believe that area was technically under popular sovreignty before the war anyway, so significant popular support was probably there. I'm no expert on Kentucky and who they would join postwar, though if I had to place a bet I would say the Confederacy. I would imagine West Virginia's split was pretty inevitable at this point as well.
     
  9. Johnrankins Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2007
    Since you apparently spotted them Army Group Center from the Nazis, I guess the Nazis/CSA then conquer all of the US, invade Canda and Mexico and build a navy to take over the world!
     
  10. Amateur Cold War Baby

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2019
    First, California had essentially the same population as Texas in 1860, if we discount slaves. This would be a Texas operation, due to lack of control of the Mississippi River very early in the war. So the operation would require diverting the bulk of the Texas contribution to the CSA.
    Second, there were no rail lines or usable 12-month overland routes from Texas to California at this time (there are good reasons the Oregon and California Trails were well north of the deserts of the Southwest).
    Third, taking Texas troops out of the OTL missions would really screw either the Army of Northern Virginia (taking half their shock troops plus several divisions) or the defense of Vicksburg (or both). How does the South win if they lose either Richmond or Vicksburg?
    Fourth, California's gold was from the northern part of the state. CSA sympathizers were limited to the southern part of the state, which had very few people in 1860.
    Fifth, Nevada's silver and gold were far more important to the financing of the civil war.

    So, while it is conceivable that the CSA could hold or at least raid the old New Mexico Territory (current states of Arizona and New Mexico), marching a significant army from Texas to California and having it fit to fight once it got there is simply not conceivable.
     
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  11. Fiver Curmudgeon

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2007
    Considering Confederate logistics, the march from New Mexico to California would probably have a lot in common with Hannibal crossing the Alps - half the Confederate troops dead. Unlike Hannibal, there wouldn't be any equivalent of the Gallic allies that replaced his depleted ranks - only a few dozen Californians joined the Confederate army. Over 15,000 Californians served in the Union Army, so a Confederate expeditionary force in California would probably have to win multiple battles outnumbered 5-to-1 or worse.

    The Confederates did not have any commanders good enough to do that.