What would life in Europe been like if Germany won WW1?

[ZeldaOwner]

Let's say Germany wins WW1 and gets to enact its "September Program."

Germany gets:

* The iron ore producing regions of Northern France become annexed.
* Much of the Channel coast is annexed.
* France's northern forts are destroyed and its military severely limited in size.
* France pays Germany a steep indemnification that eliminates Germany's debt and turns France into an economic rump state.
* France is not allowed to trade with England and is wholly dependent on German markets.
* Belgium is annexed/turned into a vassal state.
* The Netherlands are annexed/turned into a vassal state.
* The formation of a Central European trading bloc dominated by Germany.
* Expansion of German colonies in Africa and elsewhere.

Far-fetched, yes. But if this does happen, my questions:

1) What was German culture like in the years of Wilhelm and WW1?
2) How would German's conquests get influenced by that cultural change?
3) What does this mean for the future of democracy as France is essentially a German client state. (I'd imagine any French government would have to be allied with Germany or face punishment.)
4) Without Europe as a trading partner, what becomes of the England and its economy?
5) What would German/US relations be like? (Assuming the US didn't enter WW1.)

 

[Pyramus]

* The Netherlands are annexed/turned into a vassal state.

Huh?
The Netherlands were neutral for the entirety of the war.
Perhaps I'm being ignorant, but why would Germany make plans to annex them?
Obviously if those plans got on the Dutch PM's desk, Holland enters the war on the side of the Entente...

 

[Riain]

Obviously the scenario you put forward would be totally shit for the subject people. Fortunately it bears no similarities with any sort of war aim or opportunity raised by the fortunes of war.

I'v said it before and it bears repeating, the German Empire were not proto-Nazis itching to conquer Europe to have a genocidal party. They were a democracy at a particular level of constitutional development that found itself in a situation that structure wasn't well equipped to handle.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

German Empire during late stages of ww1 drifted towards military dictatorship. Guys like Ludendorff were definitely not nice...

 

[Riain]

German Empire during late stages of ww1 drifted towards military dictatorship. Guys like Ludendorff were definitely not nice...

The Silent Dictatorship was legally vased on the 1851 Prussian Siege Law allowing Corp area commanders widespread powers in an emergency. H & L coordinated the use of these powers at the highest level and marginalized the civilian government as a result. There was no military coup, the Kaiser, Reichstag, Bundesraat and the like remained in place and continued to function at reduced effectiveness for the entire war and would regain power with the coming of peace.

Military Government of occupied territories during wartime is generally shit, you would be amazed at how many Germans the French deported from the meagre territory they captured temporarily in 1914.

 

[Aphrodite]

Huh?
The Netherlands were neutral for the entirety of the war.
Perhaps I'm being ignorant, but why would Germany make plans to annex them?
Obviously if those plans got on the Dutch PM's desk, Holland enters the war on the side of the Entente...

THe British thought this would happen. Grey even mentions it in his speech to Parliament. If France is beaten, then the small European states would not be able to resist Germany. Any independence would be nominal. He mentions this as Denmark's fate as well

Obviously the scenario you put forward would be totally shit for the subject people. Fortunately it bears no similarities with any sort of war aim or opportunity raised by the fortunes of war.

I'v said it before and it bears repeating, the German Empire were not proto-Nazis itching to conquer Europe to have a genocidal party. They were a democracy at a particular level of constitutional development that found itself in a situation that structure wasn't well equipped to handle.

The terms seem moderate to me. Many are in the September program which was put together by the foreign office to moderate the terms. The annexation of the Channel coast seems a stretch but occupation seems reasonable as long as Britain would remain in the war.

France will be destroyed as a military power- this means the Northern fortresses will be occupied or destroyed, the iron fields annexed and a crushing indemnity imposed.

These terms are after all what "democratic" France, Italy, Great Britain and the US imposed on Germany

 

[Mikestone8]

Any thoughts on the day to day life of the average French (or German or Russian) peasant, shopkeeper or factory worker? Would it be hugely better or worse?

 

[yourworstnightmare]

1) The Netherlands were neutral the whole war and the Dutch government did not have any hostile relations with the Germans, so why would they do anything to the Dutch?

2) Say hello to Red France.

 

[David T]

How bad a German-dominated Europe will eventually be is a difficult question to answer because too many people assume that the Kaiserreich of OTL will continue fundamentally unchanged *or* will evolve toward greater democracy. But there is another possibility--that when the next major Depression hits, to quote one of my old soc.history.what-if posts,"[Germany] could eventually be led by someone--probably not Hitler but sharing many of his views--considerably worse than those who led it in 1871-1918."

 

[Mikestone8]

How bad a German-dominated Europe will eventually be is a difficult question to answer because too many people assume that the Kaiserreich of OTL will continue fundamentally unchanged *or* will evolve toward greater democracy. But there is another possibility--that when the next major Depression hits, to quote one of my old soc.history.what-if posts,"[Germany] could eventually be led by someone--probably not Hitler but sharing many of his views--considerably worse than those who led it in 1871-1918."

Iirc, OTL there were a number of "Royal dictatorships" in the Balkans during that era. Given Prussian history I could easily imagine one in a surviving Second Reich.

 

[Augenis]

Well, I would speak German and wank Germany instead of Lithuania if/when an equivalent of AH.com arises.

 

[BlondieBC]

German Empire during late stages of ww1 drifted towards military dictatorship. Guys like Ludendorff were definitely not nice...

1. If Germany is decisively winning the war, then the forces that pushed Germany towards dictatorship are reduced.
2. Go read Ludendorff book written in 1919. He is fairly moderate there, and you will see his radicalization is probably near to the 1922-1925 period.

 

[BlondieBC]

THe British thought this would happen. Grey even mentions it in his speech to Parliament. If France is beaten, then the small European states would not be able to resist Germany. Any independence would be nominal. He mentions this as Denmark's fate as well



The terms seem moderate to me. Many are in the September program which was put together by the foreign office to moderate the terms. The annexation of the Channel coast seems a stretch but occupation seems reasonable as long as Britain would remain in the war.

France will be destroyed as a military power- this means the Northern fortresses will be occupied or destroyed, the iron fields annexed and a crushing indemnity imposed.

These terms are after all what "democratic" France, Italy, Great Britain and the US imposed on Germany

The September Program was not an approved program, and even this program did not call for annexing of neutral countries.

As to the Netherlands, Germany has access to trade with the Dutch colonies if the Dutch are left alone. If they annex the Dutch, then the UK/Japan will occupy all these colonies.

Now to the harsh terms. If the UK refuses to negotiate, we can ballpark the terms. Yes mines near the German border are likely to either be formally annexed. The French will be militarily crippled by some combination of destruction of border defense, arms limits, and occupation. Belgium will be forces into the German economic zone. The coastline will be occupied and fortified. And not just the Belgium coast, a good chance the Germans have actual bases on the English Channel. And this type of cease fire in place slowly becoming permanent is possible in a big German win. However, when looking at German invasion forces permanently being station in Belgium, the UK is likely to come to the negotiation table. And it will be a negotiation. The Germans lack the navy to take back colonies or to force open the British Empire to trade. The UK lacks the army to get the Germans to move back to southern Belgium or even out of Belgium. And both have things the others side wants that are less valuable. The Germans would love peace, accepting the German domination of the middle Europe, and return of colonies. The UK would love not to spend the next 50 years having both a large navy and a large army in SE England to defend against invasion. There is a middle ground that both sides are happier with, the question is can each side leadership see past the immediate dangers of not making peace.

 

[BlondieBC]

How bad a German-dominated Europe will eventually be is a difficult question to answer because too many people assume that the Kaiserreich of OTL will continue fundamentally unchanged *or* will evolve toward greater democracy. But there is another possibility--that when the next major Depression hits, to quote one of my old soc.history.what-if posts,"[Germany] could eventually be led by someone--probably not Hitler but sharing many of his views--considerably worse than those who led it in 1871-1918."

You scenario is unlikely. Few of the winning powers went that route. The USA, UK, and France retained their democratic governments. It was the losing powers of Russia and Germany that turned out bad. Italy is the interesting exception. And we can spend a lot of time on this one. IMO, if Italy had been broadly rewarded with colonies such as the UK or even major land gains in the Adriatic area, then Italy does not go fascist. If you look at all the lands gained by the UK and France, it would have been a fairly simple matter to give Italy some colonial gains to make the war a "win" for the Italians. There is no reason that Italy could not have been given Tunisia and Syria, for example. Or control of the Holy sites in Palestine. Or the entire Adriatic coastline.

 

[sendô]

These terms are after all what "democratic" France, Italy, Great Britain and the US imposed on Germany

Much has been made of how "harsh" the Versailles treaty was, but in reality it wasn't as harsh as Brest-Liitovsk was on the Russians.

The UK would love not to spend the next 50 years having both a large navy and a large army in SE England to defend against invasion. There is a middle ground that both sides are happier with, the question is can each side leadership see past the immediate dangers of not making peace.

That would fly in the face of British strategic policy for the preceding few hundred years. You'd probably end up with an Amiens style peace while Britain tried to feel around for allies.

 

[Aphrodite]

1) The Netherlands were neutral the whole war and the Dutch government did not have any hostile relations with the Germans, so why would they do anything to the Dutch?

The September Program was not an approved program, and even this program did not call for annexing of neutral countries.

As to the Netherlands, Germany has access to trade with the Dutch colonies if the Dutch are left alone. If they annex the Dutch, then the UK/Japan will occupy all these colonies.

I guess you missed the "vassal state' option. The Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark are going to be vassals whether the Germans invade them or not. After the war, the Germans would be so powerful no one could challenge them

Right, the September program wasn't an approved list. It was a list of suggestions put forth by moderate elements of the German government. the real terms are going to be far harsher

Now to the harsh terms. If the UK refuses to negotiate, we can ballpark the terms. Yes mines near the German border are likely to either be formally annexed. The French will be militarily crippled by some combination of destruction of border defense, arms limits, and occupation. Belgium will be forces into the German economic zone. The coastline will be occupied and fortified. And not just the Belgium coast, a good chance the Germans have actual bases on the English Channel. And this type of cease fire in place slowly becoming permanent is possible in a big German win. However, when looking at German invasion forces permanently being station in Belgium, the UK is likely to come to the negotiation table. And it will be a negotiation. The Germans lack the navy to take back colonies or to force open the British Empire to trade. The UK lacks the army to get the Germans to move back to southern Belgium or even out of Belgium. And both have things the others side wants that are less valuable. The Germans would love peace, accepting the German domination of the middle Europe, and return of colonies. The UK would love not to spend the next 50 years having both a large navy and a large army in SE England to defend against invasion. There is a middle ground that both sides are happier with, the question is can each side leadership see past the immediate dangers of not making peace.

Back to the "British can't lose" school? The British are in the same boat they would be in WWII after the fall of France. The only terms they are likely to get would leave them so weak and vulnerable to be worthless.
The Kaiser had spent twenty years trying to rival the British at sea and now he has them. The Germans are freed of any threat from land, they are collecting huge indemnities and the peace terms are likely to either give the Germans the French and Russian navies or reduce those two to vassal status which is the same result. British hegemony at sea is over and the Germans have no reason to negotiate with Britain at all.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Regarding Britain: There would basically be a Cold War for some years, and a ctive war in the Middle East (Germany goes down to save Ottoman ass, and show Britain the CAN be a threat to the colonies). Then a White Peace (German colonies restored and Germany able to actually make good on Colonial gains from Belgium and France, while Britain keep her Empire intact).

 

[Simeon]

Stormy with a chance of meatgrinder wars.

 

[longsword14]

You'd probably end up with an Amiens style peace while Britain tried to feel around for allies.

No Russia or Austria. This is no Amiens.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

THe British thought this would happen. Grey even mentions it in his speech to Parliament.

Not quite the most reliable source, is he?