What would Japan's fate be if Unthinkable happened?

With how war weary the US would be fighting the Nazis AND the USSR I think they would be way more open for a peace deal with Japan, not to mention the USSR might ally with Japan if they were betrayed by US/UK.

Do you think Japan would be better off or worse off in an Unthinkable scenario?
 
With how war weary the US would be fighting the Nazis AND the USSR I think they would be way more open for a peace deal with Japan, not to mention the USSR might ally with Japan if they were betrayed by US/UK.

Do you think Japan would be better off or worse off in an Unthinkable scenario?

Considering that Unthinkable OTL was a late war plan, there wouldn't be much in the way of Nazis to fight if the plan goes off. Though, as it was OTL, there are not nearly enough Western troops on the ground to have a chance of success. In that case, you'd be talking about some alternate plan where the Western allies have far more forces on the ground, where they could hope to match the Soviet armies at the outbreak of war. And that's just more and more butterflies going on...

Likely worse off. Even if Downfall doesn't go ahead because of demands elsewhere, you'd see the Allies simply blockade Japan indefinitely while seizing strategic ports to continue operations elsewhere. They have a surfeit of naval units right now and could keep Japan isolated pretty much indefinitely.

Any Soviet Alliance with Japan couldn't get through a US/UK Naval Blockade as it stands, and effectively this would mean that the Soviets would be paying lip service to any alliance, "supporting" Japanese Units in China, and quietly taking over Japanese-held positions.

And why would the US seek peace? They were already using the minority of the war effort to fight the Japanese as the Germans were a much bigger concern than the Japanese were. This will simply result in isolation for Japan and imminent starvation for many of its people in 45-46.

Worse for Japan than in OTL.
 
Considering that Unthinkable OTL was a late war plan, there wouldn't be much in the way of Nazis to fight if the plan goes off.

I said Nazis and Soviets meaning that with Unthinkable the US would already had fought the Nazis and now the Soviets.

Though, as it was OTL, there are not nearly enough Western troops on the ground to have a chance of success. In that case, you'd be talking about some alternate plan where the Western allies have far more forces on the ground, where they could hope to match the Soviet armies at the outbreak of war.

As far as Im aware the plan was to use nukes to make up for the numbers.

If Moscow is nuked, the Kremlin destroyed and Stalin killed, I dont see the Soviets fighting on, the capital would be lost.
 
I said Nazis and Soviets meaning that with Unthinkable the US would already had fought the Nazis and now the Soviets.

It wasn't clear; to me it sounded like you meant at the same time. Hence my confusion.

In that case, they certainly aren't as war weary as the other factions, and have taken comparatively light losses. The bigger question is what sparks the fight and whether there is unanimity among the allies about the need to pursue the option. If there is dissension among the political and military leadership, that opens up the door for more issues than anything else.

As far as Im aware the plan was to use nukes to make up for the numbers.

If Moscow is nuked, the Kremlin destroyed and Stalin killed, I dont see the Soviets fighting on, the capital would be lost.

Was Moscow in range of any bomber? Even if it was, the air defenses over Russia are quite a bit tighter than Japan...

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Still, I find thatcontinental Europe turning red slightly more likely, as Atomic Bomb Production wasn't quite high enough, and Soviet Industry was safely removed from the front line so as not to be damaged by Allied attacks. Still, not a question for this thread. Regardless, the Soviets cannot support the Japanese in any significant way, and the Japanese cannot hope to break out past the allied navies, so without forces to force a surrender, the war will become a large siege that functions more as a holding pattern until Japan is willing to come to terms.
 
It wasn't clear; to me it sounded like you meant at the same time. Hence my confusion.

In that case, they certainly aren't as war weary as the other factions, and have taken comparatively light losses. The bigger question is what sparks the fight and whether there is unanimity among the allies about the need to pursue the option. If there is dissension among the political and military leadership, that opens up the door for more issues than anything else.



Was Moscow in range of any bomber? Even if it was, the air defenses over Russia are quite a bit tighter than Japan...

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Still, I find thatcontinental Europe turning red slightly more likely, as Atomic Bomb Production wasn't quite high enough, and Soviet Industry was safely removed from the front line so as not to be damaged by Allied attacks. Still, not a question for this thread. Regardless, the Soviets cannot support the Japanese in any significant way, and the Japanese cannot hope to break out past the allied navies, so without forces to force a surrender, the war will become a large siege that functions more as a holding pattern until Japan is willing to come to terms.

Japan was willing to come to terms, just not unconditional ones.
 
Do you think Japan would be better off or worse off in an Unthinkable scenario?

Unquestionably worse off since no surrender means no Allied occupation and food relief. Japan is utterly defeated by V-E Day and is no longer capable of any offensive action with the destruction of their navy. So if the US finds itself in a situation where a war with the Soviets flares up they simply keep the blockade up and switch their focus to Europe. A lot of Japanese will starve to death during the winter.

The Soviets wouldn't be able to provide any material assistance to the Japanese Home Islands due to American naval dominance in the Pacific and I'm not sure they'd want to anyway since it would a bit awkward to tell Mao to take up arms alongside the Japanese to fight the Nationalists if they form an alliance.
 
Japan was willing to come to terms, just not unconditional ones.

Which they won't be receiving - none of the units necessary to blockade Japan would be necessary to assault the Soviets in the West, and an assault into the Soviet Far East would only take a fraction of the Naval Power that the allies have assembled.

There's no reason offer terms against an enemy who is no longer a threat and no longer has any serious ability in which to harm you - the Japanese will end up being starved into submission here. Better than Downfall, but worse than OTL by far.
 
The Anglo-American and Soviet armies killing each other by the bucketload combined with the political clusterfuck that would be ongoing within the Anglo-American countries would certainly embolden the Japanese leadership to hold out much longer. This is very bad news for millions of Japanese lives, as with the demands of having to hold off the Red Army in Europe now ensuring Olympic gets canned the Americans are liable to switch to a "blockade and starve" strategy instead.

As far as Im aware the plan was to use nukes to make up for the numbers.

If Moscow is nuked, the Kremlin destroyed and Stalin killed, I dont see the Soviets fighting on, the capital would be lost.

Operation Unthinkable didn't factor nukes into it's planning at all, as it was drafted before it was clear that the weapons would work. Any usage of nukes would have to be improvised in and would be extremely delayed as a result, especially seeing as none of the infrastructure for carrying out a nuclear attack was ready in Europe. I do not envy the crew that would have to deliver the bomb to Moscow given that the Soviets would know it was coming and would certainly have interceptors waiting, along with the leadership likely evacuated. In any case, the political chaos in the WAllied home countries probably short circuits the war before it comes to that. The WAllies are the ones who have a problem with the will to fight, given that they've just thrown hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of their soldiers lives away launching a offensive war against what is still perceived to be a beloved ally by their publics. This is even worse if the initial battles end in defeats, which is against the 1945 Red Army is a very real possibility.
 
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What if America stay out Europe war in Sumer of 1945. It possible whit Rosvelt still in power. I mean he died later. Or beter Soviet diplomacy.
One of conditions for USA non involvement could be Soviet help whit Japan. Britan might have difrent aliases than USA. Turkey not red Chiana Finland.
 
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