What would it take to force a 1943 invasion of France?

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Great Britain does not intervene in Greece, allowing the British to complete Operation Compass and throw the Italians out of N.Africa in early 1941.
(This can happen be Greece negitiating a truce with the Italians in late 1940 after its early advances in Albania).

The British cannot invade Italy in 1942 alone, the US have just entered the war after all.

The freed up resources not fighting in N.Africa, especially trucks&planes ensure however a swifter advance of the Germans in the East. The not-destroyed german oaratroopers are deployed to capture the Baku airfields, Stalingrad is captured in late summer 1942.

By mid 1943 the Soviets are pressed to the limit. Freed up German submarines and planes not having to fight in the Med, kill more merchants in the Arctic convoys 1942-1943. The Baku oilfields are lost in early 1943, causing severe logistic problems for the Soviets.

The Allies are forced to intervene in the summer of 1943 to prevent a collapse of the Eastern Front. They invade France (and not Ialy) hoping to draw of German forces off the East. It will probably become a slaughter...
 
Casablanca: The Symbol Confrence in Morroco in january 1943. Near the end of the several days of meetings Roosevelt told Churchill he was including the Unc Sur item in the official joint policy document for public release. This was in a one/one meeting between the two with only a few aides & clerks present. Churchill had other things on his mind & did not much consider the implications.

In any case the policy was only enforced in the case of Germany. Eight months later Eisenhower was given authority to negotiate the Italian surrender & a number of significant conditions were included. i.e.: the Italian government remained intact & nominally running Italy, the Italian army remained in existence, & was eventually rearmed (tho a small volunteer force). Italian police & civil authority retained their identity & significant authority.

If paying lip service to the US policy is what it takes to get Italy into a cease fire then I suspect that will be done.




Food and cash would be far more useful for the Italians, and coal. OTL the need to supply southern Italy with fuel, food, and health supplies proved a major drain on Allied shipping. I've seen some rough numbers that suggest the shipping cost of keeping the southern Italian population alive in 1944 offset a large part of the savings from reopening the Mediterranean sea route. Not much use in sending new arms to Italy if the population is dying from the cold in the winter of 1943/44.

Casablanca!!!!! :eek:

Yeah what ever it takes but tell Italy they can bow out 'cheaply' - but as I said German forces in Italy and Italian forces in the east might cause issues.

Regarding the food/coal situation in Southern Italy how much of that was a result of the heavy fighting + very heavy partisan activity as well as an effective partitioning the North from the South?

With no major fighting in Italy and the country remaining 'whole' I would expect many of those issues to not be present in this TL and a much reduced demand on shipping.
 
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Regarding the food/coal situation in Southern Italy how much of that was a result of the heavy fighting + very heavy partisan activity as well as an effective partitioning the North from the South?

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Italy was self sufficient in neither food or coal, & southern Italy more so. since Roman times, perhaps earlier, grain farms in north Africa had been important to Italian urban development & its civilization.

Germany was short food from 1939, but a portion was dribbled to Italy to help. Coal was one thing Germany had in quantity & Italy got a portion of its needs from Germany. This was in part to make up for the loss of Rumanian oil. Italy had been a investor in development there & when Rumania sought German protection from the USSR the price was redirecting Italys cut of the petroleum.

If Italy announces a cease fire & starts withdrawing its armies (OTL the Italian forces in the USSR were withdrawing in the spring of 1943.) Germany is not going to continue coal shipments, dribbling petrol to Italy. Neither can Italian industry expect any connection to the Austrian electrical generation, German machine tools, chemicals, ect… If the Allies make up any of that it means the use of Allied cargo ships.
 
Great Britain does not intervene in Greece, allowing the British to complete Operation Compass and throw the Italians out of N.Africa in early 1941.
(This can happen be Greece negitiating a truce with the Italians in late 1940 after its early advances in Albania).

The British cannot invade Italy in 1942 alone, the US have just entered the war after all.

US ground and air forces were designated & trained for the Gymnast Operations earlier in 1942. Those ops were postponed due to emergencies elsewhere. Shipping material to stop the Japanese in the South Pacific & to the USSR took priority over the Gymnast Ops.

A second point here is a number of important points in the Mediterranean were vulnerable and would not require a entire Allied army group, like Op Husky, or the aggregate, Avalanche/Baytown/Slapstic/Brimstone/Giant ops

Sardinia is particulalry vulnerable & capturing that makes Corsica vulnerable. Given the Allied flexibility in amphib ops & the historical Italian judgement of Sardinias vulnerability its not unreasonable Sardinia/Corsica could be snatched.

Alternately or perhaps in tandem Crete could be taken as well. That allows the Allies to threaten the bulk of the south European littoral. If the Germans don't defend in strength they give the Allies some cheap lodgments in southern Europe. If they do defend they have a very long coast to cover.
 
Italy was self sufficient in neither food or coal, & southern Italy more so. since Roman times, perhaps earlier, grain farms in north Africa had been important to Italian urban development & its civilization.

Germany was short food from 1939, but a portion was dribbled to Italy to help. Coal was one thing Germany had in quantity & Italy got a portion of its needs from Germany. This was in part to make up for the loss of Rumanian oil. Italy had been a investor in development there & when Rumania sought German protection from the USSR the price was redirecting Italys cut of the petroleum.

If Italy announces a cease fire & starts withdrawing its armies (OTL the Italian forces in the USSR were withdrawing in the spring of 1943.) Germany is not going to continue coal shipments, dribbling petrol to Italy. Neither can Italian industry expect any connection to the Austrian electrical generation, German machine tools, chemicals, ect… If the Allies make up any of that it means the use of Allied cargo ships.

But surely that - and making use of Italy's surviving Merchant fleet - is better than fighting a war in Italy and the resources necessary to support such a war?

Coupled with the opening of the Med and Mega tonnage of shipping capacity freed as a result it would still be a plus for the Allies
 
The Allies used the surviving Italian cargo fleet OTL. It helped but was not a panacea. Roughly half the surviving fleet was either interned in neutral ports in South America, or was already in Allied hands and use. When Mussolini decided to declare war in 1940 roughly a third of the Italian cargo fleet was caught outside the Mediterranean. Some remained impounded in neutral ports, but the Brits were aggressive in getting their hands on those. Those impounded had suffered from neglect & needed refits & maintenance. Those in British hands suffered from overuse & half trained crews, like many other Allied cargo ships. Those inJapanese territory were completely out of Allied reach.

Approx another third of the cargo fleet was damaged or sunk.

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Coupled with the opening of the Med and Mega tonnage of shipping capacity freed as a result it would still be a plus for the Allies

Need to see the numbers to judge that accurately. What portions of the cargos to Italy were for Italian use during 1943-44? Maybe Hyper War has something on that. Or Jacksons 'The Battle For Italy' ?
 
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