If the Moderators feel that this belongs to the modern politics forum, they can move it to that forum. But i would like the discussion to be restricted to events prior to 2005
Say the Pahlavi dynasty survives the crises of 1978 or the crises of 1978 the culminated in the Iranian Revolution didn't happen. How would Iran fare in the modern 21st century assuming that, following the death of Mohammed Reza Shah due to cancer somewhere in the early 80s, the country gradually democratizes in the 80s and 90s eventually by the late 2000s the shah is reduced to the role of a constitutional monarch but the monarchy still retains considerable influence behind the scene, given the fact that they still own companies and industries. I have following questions
1. How better off would Iran be, the question is whether Iran would be better of without the Iran-Iraq war and the Crippling sanctions, how better off would ordinary Iranians be, i want to restrict the conversation to the standard of living and economic development upto 2005, i don't want this to be topic of current politics.
How would shah-regime react to the low oil prices of the 80s and the 90s, would it destabilize the economy and would oil further depreciate since Iraq and Iran aren't fighting a war and both their oil output would be trading in the international markets, will this contribute to the Soviet economy collapsing earlier ?
2. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was as a result of the paranoia on the part of the soviet leadership's interpretation of the events in the middle east, but none the less in my opinion a very limited soviet intervention would take place in Afghanistan, how would the middle east react to the no so secret but overt soviet intervention in Afghanistan, how would the Shah react to these events. How would the US react? would we see the rise of Mujahedeen? Instead of Soviet APC rolling into Afghanistan stories/rumors of spetsnaz and GRU/KGB shenanigans in Afghanistan and Pakistan make into world press.
3. How would Iran and the shah's government react to the fall of the USSR? Tajikistan become closely allied to Iran? how would the relationship between Iran and Azerbaijan be ?
Assume that the Soviet Union dissolves in the late 80s or early 90s in more or less the same manner but probably less catastrophically, maybe the USSR is replaced by a new entity as envisioned in the new union treaty of 1991, since the military might be more loyal to the soviet government in the absence of the afghan war which strained relationship between the CPSU and the soviet military.
4. How radical would the middle east get in the absence of Iran Iraq war, Iranian Islamic revolution, no Iraq Kuwait war, limited soviet intervention in Afghanistan.
5. united states and the west, relationship with the middle east in this new timeline.
Say the Pahlavi dynasty survives the crises of 1978 or the crises of 1978 the culminated in the Iranian Revolution didn't happen. How would Iran fare in the modern 21st century assuming that, following the death of Mohammed Reza Shah due to cancer somewhere in the early 80s, the country gradually democratizes in the 80s and 90s eventually by the late 2000s the shah is reduced to the role of a constitutional monarch but the monarchy still retains considerable influence behind the scene, given the fact that they still own companies and industries. I have following questions
1. How better off would Iran be, the question is whether Iran would be better of without the Iran-Iraq war and the Crippling sanctions, how better off would ordinary Iranians be, i want to restrict the conversation to the standard of living and economic development upto 2005, i don't want this to be topic of current politics.
How would shah-regime react to the low oil prices of the 80s and the 90s, would it destabilize the economy and would oil further depreciate since Iraq and Iran aren't fighting a war and both their oil output would be trading in the international markets, will this contribute to the Soviet economy collapsing earlier ?
2. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was as a result of the paranoia on the part of the soviet leadership's interpretation of the events in the middle east, but none the less in my opinion a very limited soviet intervention would take place in Afghanistan, how would the middle east react to the no so secret but overt soviet intervention in Afghanistan, how would the Shah react to these events. How would the US react? would we see the rise of Mujahedeen? Instead of Soviet APC rolling into Afghanistan stories/rumors of spetsnaz and GRU/KGB shenanigans in Afghanistan and Pakistan make into world press.
3. How would Iran and the shah's government react to the fall of the USSR? Tajikistan become closely allied to Iran? how would the relationship between Iran and Azerbaijan be ?
Assume that the Soviet Union dissolves in the late 80s or early 90s in more or less the same manner but probably less catastrophically, maybe the USSR is replaced by a new entity as envisioned in the new union treaty of 1991, since the military might be more loyal to the soviet government in the absence of the afghan war which strained relationship between the CPSU and the soviet military.
4. How radical would the middle east get in the absence of Iran Iraq war, Iranian Islamic revolution, no Iraq Kuwait war, limited soviet intervention in Afghanistan.
5. united states and the west, relationship with the middle east in this new timeline.