What would have been the most and least plausible additions to Soviet territory in Europe by 1922?

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
a) Poland east of the Curzon line
b) Finland
c) Estonia
d) Latvia
e) Lithuania
f) East Prussia
g) Central Poland/old Congress Poland
h) Posen
i) West Prussia/corridor/Danzig
j) Moldova
k) Hungary
l) eastern Germany

List your view of the potential of these territories to be additions to the Soviet Union or Soviet sphere by the time its western borders stabilize in 1922, from the most plausible to the least plausible, and then explain your rationale.
 
(Not an expert on this)

A-G-H)I think if the Soviets could manage to win the Polish-Soviet war, they could take these territories.

F-I-L)Once again, a Soviet victory in Poland would be necessary, but the problem will be pushing into Germany. Although the country will be in an economic collapse and have a small army, it is likely they would be getting Allied support, since Britain and France wouldn't probably want Communist presence in Germany. This, coupled with the Soviets overstretching, means that these territories are highly unlikely to be permanently taken.

B)The problem with taking Finland is that by the time the Reds are strong enough and have mostly dealt with the Whites and are ready for attacks in the East, Finland is already firmly under the Whites and ready to fight an invasion. Thus, the only chance would be a Communist victory in the Finnish Civil War.

C-D-E-J)I think all of these are possible to conquer, but would require focusing specifically on them and taking away resources from other fronts.

K)Hungary is quite far away. The best chance for the Reds is to support the short-lived Communist regime, and that itself is difficult.

Most Plausible
J
C/D/E
A
G
H
B
K/F/I/L
Least Plausible
 
I think Eastern Germany is pretty much ASB while Central Poland is difficult while Eastern Poland and the Baltics it's an either or. With a bit of luck they could have got Eastern Poland in the Polish or they could have pushed into the Baltic. I don't think they could have done both.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
(Not an expert on this)

A-G-H)I think if the Soviets could manage to win the Polish-Soviet war, they could take these territories.

F-I-L)Once again, a Soviet victory in Poland would be necessary, but the problem will be pushing into Germany. Although the country will be in an economic collapse and have a small army, it is likely they would be getting Allied support, since Britain and France wouldn't probay want Communist presence in Germany. This, coupled with the Soviets overstretching, means that these territories are highly unlikely to be permanently taken.

---I think East Prussia and West Prussia, even if not likely are are quite a bit less unlikely than any of "mainland" Germany.

B)The problem with taking Finland is that by the time the Reds are strong enough and have mostly dealt with the Whites and are ready for attacks in the East, Finland is already firmly under the Whites and ready to fight an invasion. Thus, the only chance would be a Communist victory in the Finnish Civil War.

C-D-E-J)I think all of these are possible to conquer, but would require focusing specifically on them and taking away resources from other fronts.

K)Hungary is quite far away. The best chance for the Reds is to support the short-lived Communist regime, and that itself is difficult.

Great points across the board

Most Plausible
J
C/D/E
A

I am going to disagree slightly with your order above. I think that the Baltic states, or at least Lithuania, are a bit less plausible than eastern Poland to the Curzon Line. In the case of Lithuania, I don't see the Soviets getting it without having the intervening space that was northeastern Poland in OTL.

G
H
B
K/F/I/L
Least Plausible

Here again I would not put East Prussia or West Prussia/corridor, in the same league of implausibility as "mainland" Germany or Hungary.
 
If the Soviets conquer Warsaw, then they're guaranteed to annex almost all of Poland. German paramilitary groups would probably try to secure their former territories in the East. The Soviets, out of exhaustion, would likely allow Germany to take back their former territories while they take the rest of Poland. The Baltic states would be easy to conquer. Hungary and Eastern Germany are out of the question. Finland, while difficult, could be conquered under the right circumstances. Romania would be easy to bully into ceding Bessarabia.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
If the Soviets conquer Warsaw, then they're guaranteed to annex almost all of Poland. German paramilitary groups would probably try to secure their former territories in the East. The Soviets, out of exhaustion, would likely allow Germany to take back their former territories while they take the rest of Poland. The Baltic states would be easy to conquer. Hungary and Eastern Germany are out of the question. Finland, while difficult, could be conquered under the right circumstances. Romania would be easy to bully into ceding Bessarabia.

I wonder if the Czechs might intervene to support a buffer state for themselves or a rump Poland in Galicia for that purpose. Maybe them and the Romanians together. Even if they don't, their could be some complications of Polish troops retreating south into Slovakia and Romania. The local governments would probably want to incorporate such forces as retreated within their borders as an adjunct of their own military.
 
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