What would happen if the Estonian crusade failed?

Someone of his successor would eventually convert Christianity like did Lithuanian grand dukes. And later Estonia would fall under influence Sweden, Poland/Lithuania or some Russian state.
 
Lithuania would have a chance to overrun the Livonian Order for good.

And have an easy target for raiding and taking slaves.
 
What if Lembitu united all of the Estonian counties and the crusade failed?

Long term they probably convert (catholicism or or orthodoxy? This the question) much as the Lithuanians did, and the poles, Hungarians, Norse and Germans before them. Germans could still end up settling there with the rulers permission as they did in Poland and hungary but would probably assimilate eventually or remain a local minority a la the transylvanian saxons.

The history of the region changes pretty enormously without the northern crusades, so its hard to predict- does Lithuania conquer or unite with them (not impossible), do either or both end up going east to hoover up the Russian principalities after the Mongols collapse, do they end up in union with some other kingdom (Sweden? Poland?). These questions are also probably tied to the question of conversion- since a Catholic Estonian kingdom will probably look more towards the western states for marriages, while an eastern focused state will probably end up pursuing more "Russian" policies.
 
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