What would happen if Operation Sealion had been successful?

I've been wondering for a while what the outcome of Operation Sealion would've been if it had succeeded. Anyone care to tell me what the results would be like?
 
I've been wondering for a while what the outcome of Operation Sealion would've been if it had succeeded. Anyone care to tell me what the results would be like?
Hi. As a new member you might not be aware this is a well covered topic. Please read the sticky thread at the top of this page.
 
Fourty years of darkness. Earthquakes , volcanoes ,the dead rising from their graves. Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together-mass hysteria.
It'd be a hell of a time to be alive.
 

Wendigo

Banned
Depends on what supernatural magical event occured that allowed Sealion to succeed in the first place.

This is a personal favorite of mine:
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GarethC

Donor
In general, discussions here along those lines are not very productive - if events follow their historical outcome up to the Fall of France, there is no way that Sealion can be successful.

If you mean, what if it's launched anyway, then a not completely unviable answer is that:

British:
The RAF takes additional losses, up to 200% above the historical loss rates.
The RN loses 1 battleship, half a dozen cruisers, 20 destroyers, and a large number of armed trawlers and fast attack craft.
The Army takes an additional 12,000 casualties.

German
35,000 troops are casualties or prisoners.
Most of the available Kriegsmarine is sunk.
The Luftwaffe takes such losses (including among the transport arm which was just reconstituting after losses in April) that its ability to support a Barbarossa is in question
The losses among the invasion barges are a significant blow to the internal German economy as they are not available to transport goods over the internal river network.

British casualties are not from elements historically associated with the North African campaign, but the Luftwaffe losses may draw replacements from elements historically used in the Med.
However, the need to resupply the home defence formations is likely to mean that the British Operation Compass is not better supplied and/or more successful.
The Greek campaign is likely to have a less aggressive Greek strategy, as Churchill has more room to argue that recovery from the invasion makes Britain less able to support Greece, which in turn will make the Greek defence more successful, though ultimately German intervention will be decisive.
The transport losses will prevent the historical air assault on Crete and it will be held as a Free Greek stronghold.
If Hitler pushes ahead with Barbarossa, then the historical ability of Luftwaffe close air support to break Soviet strongpoints is compromised and the rate of advance is likely to be slower... but that's too complex a set of circumstances to casually scribble about before I have to take my son to school.
 
Follow your passions in alternate history. Enjoy the forum. However, this topic is a taboo as consensus is that it would not have been even conceivably possible to have succeeded and would have been a spectacular failure if tried, which the argument is the Germans never intended to actually use it as more than a bluff. Not to say it is banned, but it gets the reaction it has so far.
 
The Luftwaffe takes such losses (including among the transport arm which was just reconstituting after losses in April) that its ability to support a Barbarossa is in question

Tbh, I doubt Barbarossa would happen before 1942, at best. The massive losses of personel and equipment would bring both the army and luftwaffe to it's knees. Rebuilding would take a long time, and would rob resources that would be used to buy subs to blockade the UK... which would allow it to rebuild faster.

This would also mean that the soviet army would be fully modernized and reorganized by the time Barbarossa would happen... fun.
 
I've been wondering for a while what the outcome of Operation Sealion would've been if it had succeeded. Anyone care to tell me what the results would be like?
To answer the question I think you were asking, there is a section in Wikipedia "Sealion" page on the German plans for occupied Britain. To be honest they seem a bit casual. I suspect they were knocked up by a clerk in Berlin over one night in August 1940 and like all German (non-tactical) plans they are contradictory and confused. There was a list of people who were to be killed and a list of people to be arrested but it was badly researched, there were plans to evacuate the entire male population of military age to work in German factories, there were plans to remove works of art and cultural symbols (Nelsons column was supposed to be moved to Berlin, I think). All in all I get the impression nobody was taking it very seriously apart from the SS who made plans to "relocate" all British Jews.

The only way for the Germans to occupy Britain is if the British surrender without fighting. Personally by 1940 I suspect the German assessment of "major civilian armed resistance expected" is closer to the mark.

With out the RN covering their backs the Americans will panic. Expect massive rearmament and a commitment to 'protect' the british empire to keep it out of unfriendly hands. Stalin will also panic since it is now obvious he is next. Is this enough to stop Barbarossa if Germany does not need to keep any forces facing west? I think it is, until late 1943 German forces facing Britain were minimal compared to the resources going east. Will the US give Russia aid to resist? Yes why not?
 
I've been wondering for a while what the outcome of Operation Sealion would've been if it had succeeded. Anyone care to tell me what the results would be like?

We are all very, very surprised.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/glossary-of-sealion-threads.180901/
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/glossary-of-sealion-threads.180901/
Not that it is a question that has not come up before.

Of course as long as you dodge the awkward how then I think the point by Cerberus above is valid; that the German plans were vaporous and rather open to change, another point raised by Saphroneth elsewhere on this board is in a world where the success of Sea Lion seems likely the British come to negotiated terms first. Both of these points together actually give you a fair degree of wiggle room in plotting out your post-Sea Lion occupation plans.

Likely points to consider though is the British planned to send whatever was left of the Royal Navy abroad to Canada as well as evacuating the Royal Family. British resistance starts early as the Government actually had created units to under acts of guerilla warfare. These Auxiliary Units were not expected to last long and were operationally isolated from the rest of the population but ought to have at least kept the Germans busy while a more 'natural' resistance organisation(s) got itself started.

Really though your best bet at all times in any Sea Lion a Success! type TL is to be very vague on the invasion and conquest itself as the actual German planning and resources for it were woeful, however considering how Britain might have fared under some variant of occupation is perfectly valid an Alternate History exercise.
 
Something just hit: the Manhattan Project!!!

I'd forgotten all about it. The original letter Roosevelt received got him to start researching the issue in late 1939. The final aproval of the atomic program was only given in late 1941, but, if the UK falls, I'd be willing to be that this would be rushed as much as possible. The major problem would be how to carry it, since I doubt the B-29 could do a US-Europe round trip carrying one. The US would have to wait for the B-36.

And what about the UK's atomic program? I know it was started in 1940 and then latter on passed on to the US, but have no idea how far it had gone "when the UK was conquered".
 
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