What would happen if Mary I of England, Lady Elizabeth Tudor, Frances Brandon and Margaret Douglas somehow all died in 1558?

Who would be the queen of England in 1558 in such a scenario?

  • Mary Queen of Scots

    Votes: 33 64.7%
  • Lady Catherine Grey

    Votes: 15 29.4%
  • Henry, Lord Darnley

    Votes: 3 5.9%
  • Margaret Clifford

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    51
With the lass being born in Scotland, French lords were quickly reacting to the situation of an imminent separation of crowns. Guises, who only grudgingly accepted the treaty, wanted to overturn it so Guises would stay in power forever, while Antoine, King-Consort of Navarre and Prince Conde were enough of this. As Guises planned to convene another Estates-General to overturn the Salic law so the girl would become Queen of France, Prince Conde blocked such an attempt from happening.
Meanwhile, Francois’ health was damaged by the trip to Scotland. Shortly after returning to France, Francois felt ill. People were trying to figure out who would be regent of France, as Charles de Guise, Catherine de Medici, Antoine and Prince Conde were considered by various French notables. Ultimately, Francois chose Mary as regent, to the surprise of all French notables.
Catherine de Medici opposed Mary’s regency, even though both Mary and Catherine were pragmatics. Mary tried to reconcile Catholics and Protestants, but her attempts turned out in vain. Guises, who once thought that Mary would be dependent on them, found their niece a formidable stateswoman in her own right.
 
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In Scotland, powerful lords tried to fill the vacuum left over by Marie de Guise’s sudden death. Protestant extremists and people dissatisfied with the treaty tried to oust Mary and make James, Earl of Arran, King of Scots, and turn Scotland into a Calvinist theocracy, which failed due to disagreements about whether it would lead to toppling Mary or simply making the Earl of Arran regent and heir. The Earl himself, though, remained loyal to Mary throughout the plot. John Knox was believed to be behind the plot, having preached sermons against Mary, but Mary could not have him executed for treason because it would galvanize Protestant rebellion against her. Instead, John Knox was placed under house arrest.
In England, things went fine for a while, and religious peace was generally achieved, although neither Catholics nor Protestants were totally satisfied with the religious settlement.
In Ireland, meanwhile, Mary’s Privy Council of Ireland had the settlement program of Mary I and Philip II in Offaly and Laois reversed.
Amidst religious and political discontent, Francois II died, and in accordance of the treaty, Charles IX succeeded him in France. Mary returned to her British realms with her daughter(who was, after all, the heir to the throne).
 
Mary, being a young, fairly attractive, and powerful woman who ruled three North Atlantic realms, soon attracted many suitors, which, in the eye of her royal makars, were "like Helen attracting a thousand ships." Among the suitors were Philip II and Archduke Charles, both of whom were vetoed by the English Parliament and Scottish Parliament.

Even more controversially was the issue of the Council of Trent. Mary wanted to send delegates to the Council, but Protestants, fearing Papal pressure to set up an Inquisition chamber, tried to block this. Eventually Mary sent an Irish bishop to the Council, as Ireland was much more Catholic and it would attract much less religious discontent, and promised that the proclamation would stay in force.

Since Mary’s only heir was a little girl, her upbringing became a source of controversy. Scots wanted her to be brought up as a proper Scottish princess, while the English wanted her to be brought up in England and be sent to Ludlow once she grew up. Ultimately it was decided that Princess Margaret Antoinette would be brought up mostly in England and then sent to Ludlow, but would nevertheless learn about Scottish stuff(include its culture, languages and political system) and would often visit Scotland. Regardless of those disagreements, Mary and her close associates ensured that the heiress to the throne would receive an excellent humanist education appropriate for a queen regnant.

Eventually, the Scots lords found an ideal candidate for Mary to marry: John Hamilton, son of the very Earl of Arran bastardized by the Franco-Spanish peace treaty. By marrying him, Mary would be able to reconcile with those people, both English and Scots, who felt alienated by the Franco-Spanish peace treaty.
Matthew Stewart was angry, but since Charles Stewart was too young and Lord Darnley was already married to Katherine Grey, he had no alternative but to accept this, especially after Mary appointed him as a member of Privy Council of Scotland and re-assure that the Hamiltons of Arran would not be re-legitimized for the sake of throne of Scotland. Mary, after serious consideration, accepted the proposal. Together with John Hamilton, now King-Consort of Scotland(but without political powers), Mary had two other daughters, Elizabeth and Catherine(named after Elizabeth of York and Catherine de Medici, respectively).

Things went fine for a time, until a Habsburg plot was discovered: Philip II planned to orchestrate a coup by the Earl of Huntly against the moderate government, install him as Lord Lieutenant of Scotland and then push forward for a full inquisition in the British-Irish Isles. The plot was thwarted and the Earl of Huntly was destroyed(somehow later than OTL). In response, Philip II sent an armada against Mary with the explicit goal of regime change(22 years earlier than the OTL Armada), but in spite of its seemed advantage, the armada was defeated by the Scots-English army.

Mary continued her personal rule, with England going mostly peaceful, order mostly restored in Scotland, tensions between English and Gaels in Ireland subsided somehow and royal succession secured with three princesses. As she reached the majority, however, rumours about a Henry VIII-style great purge started circulating in Scotland as Matthew Stewart and other Lords knew that Mary could reverse all of those grants and attainders made under her minority, although in England things were largely quiet aside from a few grumbling Puritans writing some controversial books, at least until a scandal broke out.

Mary Hamilton, a scion of Hamiltons of Arran who served under Mary as a maid-in-waiting(following the Hamilton marriage), was found to commit adultery with Lord Darnley(who, being a senior royal, was frequently seen in court). She was soon imprisoned for adultery, but rumours about Mary’s court being a court of Jezebel soon arose among Protestants, and a ballad somehow spreaded among Scots, which somehow conflated Mary Hamilton with the Four Maries, the core ladies-in-waiting for Queen Mary. Unlike in OTL, however, since all of the heirs to the throne were religiously fluid lasses and John Hamilton was fairly popular among both Scots and English, attempts to depose Mary had been unsuccessful. As time passed following the scandal, Mary gradually regained her popularity, and Princess Margaret Antoinette was greeted with massive welcome when she was sent to Ludlow as heir to the throne. By the end of Mary’s reign, peace had returned to the British-Irish Isles, and the prophecy of a new Deborah had indeed came true for the people of the three realms.
 
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Mary remarrying to Arran made little sense also why Protestants are so strong in both England and Scotland without Elizabeth’s reign?
Also Arran would not get the royal title if he must be a powerless consort. Also if Philip offered to brought again the Netherlands for his heirs by Marie Stuart, England and Scotland would be likely interested
 
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Mary remarrying to Arran made little sense also why Protestants are so strong in both England and Scotland without Elizabeth’s reign?
Also Arran would not get the royal title if he must be a powerless consort
Since Protestants in this TL had only grudgingly accepted Mary after their own candidate was neutralized in the War of English Succession by both Habsburgs and French. While unlike in OTL, they would not be able to make Scotland and England a Protestant state and an Act of Uniformity would never happen in any of Mary's realms, but by the time of 1558 the modern-day Home Counties was already a Protestant bastion that only needed a Protestant heir to stir up.
Both the Darnley-Grey match and Mary-Hamilton match were essentially attempts of mass neutralization of political rivals, similar to Henry VII's marriage to Elizabeth of York or Richard III's offer of hand to Princess Joanna of Portugal.
 
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But with out Elizabeth’s reign they would be pretty low in power in both countries for the start
Historically, in 1558, the Home Counties had already been a Protestant bastion, and arrival of a number of Geneva Protestants would make the area even more Protestant in contrast with the Catholic-majority in other areas. Without Elizabeth Protestants would never become a majority in any of her realms, but they would still command a sizeable power in the most powerful region of England, enough for the idea of an English delegate to the Council of Trent to alarm a large number of people in this region.
 
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Why would Francis agree to this? It makes more sense that their second son get Scotland and their eldest gets France.
IIRC, the rights to the French throne were inalienable and "unabdicateable", it's why the Bourbons supporters are split between those who recognize the treaty of Utrecht (and recognzie the Orléans) and those who support the Carlist/Legitimist claimant
 
IIRC, the rights to the French throne were inalienable and "unabdicateable", it's why the Bourbons supporters are split between those who recognize the treaty of Utrecht (and recognzie the Orléans) and those who support the Carlist/Legitimist claimant
But it's generally agreed that a French prince who went to rule another country without being granted windfall rights would forfeit his French rights, and at the time of 1550s, the Estates-General was generally considered to have the power to set aside the fundamental succession laws of France. So if Estates-General decided to say yes to a treaty that modified the succession laws of France, it would be passed.
 
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Talking about a TL that involved Mary and her daughter with Francois II, I have some questions:
1. How would Mary deal with the Gregorian Reform? Mary and the Catholic lords, commissioners and MPs would definitely support immediate calendar reform, but many peasants and Calvinists(as Calvinists would likely have a significant number of MPs in English Parliament and followers among Scots lords) would disapprove this. Would the reform be passed through the Parliaments? Or would Mary try to bypass the Parliaments in order to pass the calendar reform?
2. How would Mary and her daughter deal with the Ottoman Empire? Mary was a Catholic, but she was also a solid Francophile. Historically both Charles IX, Henri III and Elizabeth I were allies of Ottoman Empire. Would Mary's relationship with Ottomans be friendly or hostile, and would she support Venice or Ottomans at Lepanto?
3. How would Mary or her daughter react to the Dutch Revolt?
 
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