What would happen if Mary I of England, Lady Elizabeth Tudor, Frances Brandon and Margaret Douglas somehow all died in 1558?
- Thread starter Geoffrey1016
- Start date
The law says that the children of an English monarch born outside England could succeed the throne, and foreign-born children born of two English subjects are able to inherit their parents' properties. While Margaret Douglas and Lord Darnley were both natural-born English subjects and thus exempt from the law, none of Mary Queen of Scots' parents were English or born in England(they were both Edward III's descendants, though, as James V was a descendant of both John Beaufort, first Earl of Somerset and Edward IV of England, while one of Marie de Guise's ancestors was a French lord who married the eldest daughter of Edward III). Thus during 1560s, many pamphlets written by lawyers and jurists emerged about the application of this law to the English throne.
Anti-Mary faction(especially Suffolkists, or supporters of Lady Frances Brandon's progeny) argued that the Margaret Tudor could not transmit her succession rights to James V and Mary Queen of Scots, since both James V and Mary were born outside England, and James IV wasn't an English subject; while pro-Mary faction argued that the law that limited transmission of succession rights to children of two natural-born English subjects did not extend to the throne itself.
Due to the confusing dating system in Mediaeval Europe, the law has been variously dated from 1350 or 1351.
PS: Some people at the time argued that Margaret Tudor forfeited her birthright upon her marriage to James IV, which is an absurd argument, as Mary "Rose" Tudor would be deemed as having forfeited her birthright upon her marriage to Louis XII under the same argument, which would undermine the very claim Suffolkists had been maintaining according to the said law.
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I had always read that Mary blocked the Charles of Austria match because it was negotiated behind her back by her uncle? Idk it was probably a mix of things
A mix of things. Mary wanted to choose by herself, Charles' territory(Styria, Littoral, Carinthia and Carniola) lacked direct access to Scotland, and Mary at the time wanted to use marriage as a weapon for diplomatic means.
Even worse, it would be unclear whether Mary would need to move to Charles' domains or Charles would move to Scotland, as Styria, Slovene lands and Scotland were both complex lands that needed a present ruler.
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As I saw the ideas above, I have a mini-TL(I wonder whether it's plausible)
In 1558, Elizabeth and Frances Brandon, the Protestant candidates for the throne, died mysteriously amidst the Anglo-French negotiations over Calais, with people suspecting the French, Mary I or Margaret Douglas as being involved. Margaret Douglas died shortly after. On the negotiation table, France required England to stop quartering French arms and recognize Francis and Mary, King-Dauphin and Queen-Dauphine, as heirs to the throne. Amidst the chaos, Mary died as OTL, without specifying who was the heir.
As Mary I died, Marie de Guise, queen-regent of Scotland, declared Mary Queen of Scots and her husband, Francois the Dauphin, Queen and King of England and Ireland. Home Counties Protestants and returnees from Geneva declared support for Lady Katherine Grey, sister of Jane Grey, whom they considered a religious martyr. Philip II of Spain, Emperor Ferdinand I, Catholics and moderate Protestants declared support for Henry Stewart, Lord Darnley. Margaret Clifford was proclaimed Queen by her father-in-law, the Earl of Derby and Lord of Mann.
As a civil war was imminent, Mary offered a proposal in which the Lennoxes' Scottish holdings would be restored in exchange for recognizing her claim, Katherine Grey would be made Duchess of Suffolk, and Protestants would be tolerated. But the Habsburgs would not allow a Franco-British Monarchy, and Geneva returnees would not allow a Catholic woman to be their ruler. The war continued as Mary tried to get Welsh and Irish support, Katherine Grey made a deal with Geneva returnees to make England a Protestant state, and Habsburgs and Guises fought on the English soil.
As the French became weary of war, Constable Anne de Montmorency convinced the King to start negotiating with Habsburgs. Francois and Mary refused to cede their claims to Lord Darnley because this time Mary was really the heir general, although France tried to make a plan in which Mary would succeed the English throne but Lord Darnley would be second in line. The two sides agreed, though, to marry off Elisabeth de Valois to Philip II. Meanwhile, a match between Lady Katherine Grey and Lord Darnley was made as an attempt to end the war, to the dismay of the Protestant faction.
Seeing Elisabeth de Valois, her best friend, gone, and Mary's English and Irish birthright beyond her hands, Mary fainted.
Amidst the situation, Marie de Guise had the moderate Protestants successfully co-opted while the radical Protestants continued to try to overthrow the regency, but without English money unlike in OTL.
In 1558, Elizabeth and Frances Brandon, the Protestant candidates for the throne, died mysteriously amidst the Anglo-French negotiations over Calais, with people suspecting the French, Mary I or Margaret Douglas as being involved. Margaret Douglas died shortly after. On the negotiation table, France required England to stop quartering French arms and recognize Francis and Mary, King-Dauphin and Queen-Dauphine, as heirs to the throne. Amidst the chaos, Mary died as OTL, without specifying who was the heir.
As Mary I died, Marie de Guise, queen-regent of Scotland, declared Mary Queen of Scots and her husband, Francois the Dauphin, Queen and King of England and Ireland. Home Counties Protestants and returnees from Geneva declared support for Lady Katherine Grey, sister of Jane Grey, whom they considered a religious martyr. Philip II of Spain, Emperor Ferdinand I, Catholics and moderate Protestants declared support for Henry Stewart, Lord Darnley. Margaret Clifford was proclaimed Queen by her father-in-law, the Earl of Derby and Lord of Mann.
As a civil war was imminent, Mary offered a proposal in which the Lennoxes' Scottish holdings would be restored in exchange for recognizing her claim, Katherine Grey would be made Duchess of Suffolk, and Protestants would be tolerated. But the Habsburgs would not allow a Franco-British Monarchy, and Geneva returnees would not allow a Catholic woman to be their ruler. The war continued as Mary tried to get Welsh and Irish support, Katherine Grey made a deal with Geneva returnees to make England a Protestant state, and Habsburgs and Guises fought on the English soil.
As the French became weary of war, Constable Anne de Montmorency convinced the King to start negotiating with Habsburgs. Francois and Mary refused to cede their claims to Lord Darnley because this time Mary was really the heir general, although France tried to make a plan in which Mary would succeed the English throne but Lord Darnley would be second in line. The two sides agreed, though, to marry off Elisabeth de Valois to Philip II. Meanwhile, a match between Lady Katherine Grey and Lord Darnley was made as an attempt to end the war, to the dismay of the Protestant faction.
Seeing Elisabeth de Valois, her best friend, gone, and Mary's English and Irish birthright beyond her hands, Mary fainted.
Amidst the situation, Marie de Guise had the moderate Protestants successfully co-opted while the radical Protestants continued to try to overthrow the regency, but without English money unlike in OTL.
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Pretty unlikely to happen (and with open conflict between France and Spain over English succession, princess Elisabeth would NOT be married to Philip II (and likely neither to don Carlos).
I have read somewhere that Constable Anne de Montmorency wanted the king to disengage from England, and a peace deal would be likely be brokered.
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Henry II would NOT let go England so easily and Philip was much sceptical about Margaret Douglas‘ claim on the English crown
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My Revised TL(with some ideas repugnant to other TL writers)
In 1558, Elizabeth and Frances Brandon, the Protestant candidates for the throne, died mysteriously amidst the Anglo-French negotiations over Calais, with people suspecting the French, Mary I or Margaret Douglas as being involved. Margaret Douglas died shortly after. On the negotiation table, France required England to stop quartering French arms and recognize Francis and Mary, King-Dauphin and Queen-Dauphine, as heirs to the throne, while Mary I tried to evade the issue. Amidst the situation, Mary died as OTL, without specifying who was the heir.
As Mary I died, Marie de Guise, queen-regent of Scotland, declared Mary Queen of Scots and her husband, Francois the Dauphin, Queen and King of England and Ireland. Home Counties Protestants and returnees from Geneva declared support for Lady Katherine Grey, sister of Jane Grey, whom they considered a religious martyr. Philip II of Spain, Emperor Ferdinand I, Catholics and moderate Protestants declared support for Henry Stewart, Lord Darnley. Margaret Clifford was proclaimed Queen by her father-in-law, the Earl of Derby and Lord of Mann.
As a civil war was imminent, Mary offered a proposal in which the Lennoxes' Scottish holdings would be restored in exchange for recognizing her claim, Katherine Grey would be made Duchess of Suffolk, and Protestants would be tolerated. But the Habsburgs would not allow a Franco-British Monarchy, and Geneva returnees would not allow a Catholic woman to be their ruler. The war continued as Mary enjoyed Welsh and Irish support(she was, after all, a legitimate descendant of Llywelyn the Great and Brian Boru via her ancestor, Robert the Bruce), Katherine Grey made a deal with Geneva returnees to make England a Protestant state, and Habsburgs and Guises fought on the English soil over succession to the English throne. Cliffordites quickly surrendered as Scottish forces captured the Isle of Mann and annexed it to Scotland.
As the war passed, anti-Guise forces began to gain power in France. As the French became weary of war, Constable Anne de Montmorency convinced the King to start negotiating with Habsburgs, to the Guises' chagrin. Francois and Mary refused to cede their claims to Lord Darnley, because this time Mary was really the heir general, and France continued to back the Dauphin and Dauphine's rights, although France tried to make a plan in which Mary would succeed the English throne but Lord Darnley would be second in line. Meanwhile, a match between Lady Katherine Grey and Lord Darnley was made as an attempt to end the war and to prevent a foreign takeover of England, to the dismay of the Protestant faction.
The final Franco-Spanish treaty was a compromise on both sides: Mary would succeed the English throne, but the throne would be separated after Mary and Francois’ death:
If there were two male offspring issued from Francois and Mary, then the eldest one would succeed the British domains;
If there was a single offspring, then the offspring would succeed the British domains, while Charles, Francois' brother, would succeed France;
Lord Darnley would be heir to all British domains if Mary died without heirs.
Elisabeth de Valois would be married to Don Carlos, Prince of Asturias and Prince of Girona. France would renounce its claims over all Italian territories and recognize Spanish rule in Upper Navarre, while Spain would recognize Antoine de Bourbon and Jeanne d'Albret as King and Queen of Lower Navarre. Calais would be transferred to England in exchange for a promise that the future monarchs of England, after the re-separation of crowns, would not quarter French arms. Mary felt saddened by her best friend, Elisabeth de Valois, being married abroad, but she felt glad that her birthright was now enshrined by the international treaty. The Treaty was soon passed by the Estates-General, thus formally ending the War of the English Succession.
With main issues settled and having Katherine Grey neutralized with the Dukedom of Suffolk, Francois and Mary travelled to England, where they were crowned by Nicholas Heath, Archbishop of York(since the See of Canterbury was vacant and the Protestants had uprooted the entire Catholic hierarchy in Wessex and the Home Counties during the War), in the Westminster Abbey as “Francis and Mary, by the Grace of God, King and Queen of England, Scotland and Ireland, Dauphin and Dauphine of Viennois, Defenders of the Faith”.
(Francois and Mary's coat of arms, Scottish version, 1559-1560)
The coronation was celebrated with great pomp, with pageantries and symbolic scenes shown throughout the procession. The main themes throughout the procession were the Union of Valois and Plantagenets, unification of British realms under one crown, and the end of religious strife.
To spite John Knox, the image of Mary as a new-age Deborah was deliberately used in the coronation pageantry.
Mary then issued a royal proclamation that would formally recognize the Reformed denomination as a distinct religious group under the condition that they would not actively proselyte among existing Catholic population. Mary and Francois then travelled North to Scotland, where Francois was crowned King of Scots for his lifetime(as a junior co-ruler) by the Archbishop of St. Andrews.
Marie de Guise was proud of Mary’s newly shown stateswoman-ship, while the Ultra-Catholics were disappointed. Catholic sees in Home Countries were gradually re-filled with new appointments, while moderate Protestants enjoyed the religiously tolerant atmosphere. In spite of rants from John Knox, moderate Protestants in Edinburgh and Glasgow were content to be able to hold services in discreet congregations. Marie de Guise continued to serve as regent of Scotland until her death in 1560(as OTL), while Matthew Stewart was pardoned and made regent for England(after all, his son was now the heir presumptive to the unified crowns, with the Earl of Arran bastardized as required by the treaty).
In 1558, Elizabeth and Frances Brandon, the Protestant candidates for the throne, died mysteriously amidst the Anglo-French negotiations over Calais, with people suspecting the French, Mary I or Margaret Douglas as being involved. Margaret Douglas died shortly after. On the negotiation table, France required England to stop quartering French arms and recognize Francis and Mary, King-Dauphin and Queen-Dauphine, as heirs to the throne, while Mary I tried to evade the issue. Amidst the situation, Mary died as OTL, without specifying who was the heir.
As Mary I died, Marie de Guise, queen-regent of Scotland, declared Mary Queen of Scots and her husband, Francois the Dauphin, Queen and King of England and Ireland. Home Counties Protestants and returnees from Geneva declared support for Lady Katherine Grey, sister of Jane Grey, whom they considered a religious martyr. Philip II of Spain, Emperor Ferdinand I, Catholics and moderate Protestants declared support for Henry Stewart, Lord Darnley. Margaret Clifford was proclaimed Queen by her father-in-law, the Earl of Derby and Lord of Mann.
As a civil war was imminent, Mary offered a proposal in which the Lennoxes' Scottish holdings would be restored in exchange for recognizing her claim, Katherine Grey would be made Duchess of Suffolk, and Protestants would be tolerated. But the Habsburgs would not allow a Franco-British Monarchy, and Geneva returnees would not allow a Catholic woman to be their ruler. The war continued as Mary enjoyed Welsh and Irish support(she was, after all, a legitimate descendant of Llywelyn the Great and Brian Boru via her ancestor, Robert the Bruce), Katherine Grey made a deal with Geneva returnees to make England a Protestant state, and Habsburgs and Guises fought on the English soil over succession to the English throne. Cliffordites quickly surrendered as Scottish forces captured the Isle of Mann and annexed it to Scotland.
As the war passed, anti-Guise forces began to gain power in France. As the French became weary of war, Constable Anne de Montmorency convinced the King to start negotiating with Habsburgs, to the Guises' chagrin. Francois and Mary refused to cede their claims to Lord Darnley, because this time Mary was really the heir general, and France continued to back the Dauphin and Dauphine's rights, although France tried to make a plan in which Mary would succeed the English throne but Lord Darnley would be second in line. Meanwhile, a match between Lady Katherine Grey and Lord Darnley was made as an attempt to end the war and to prevent a foreign takeover of England, to the dismay of the Protestant faction.
The final Franco-Spanish treaty was a compromise on both sides: Mary would succeed the English throne, but the throne would be separated after Mary and Francois’ death:
If there were two male offspring issued from Francois and Mary, then the eldest one would succeed the British domains;
If there was a single offspring, then the offspring would succeed the British domains, while Charles, Francois' brother, would succeed France;
Lord Darnley would be heir to all British domains if Mary died without heirs.
Elisabeth de Valois would be married to Don Carlos, Prince of Asturias and Prince of Girona. France would renounce its claims over all Italian territories and recognize Spanish rule in Upper Navarre, while Spain would recognize Antoine de Bourbon and Jeanne d'Albret as King and Queen of Lower Navarre. Calais would be transferred to England in exchange for a promise that the future monarchs of England, after the re-separation of crowns, would not quarter French arms. Mary felt saddened by her best friend, Elisabeth de Valois, being married abroad, but she felt glad that her birthright was now enshrined by the international treaty. The Treaty was soon passed by the Estates-General, thus formally ending the War of the English Succession.
With main issues settled and having Katherine Grey neutralized with the Dukedom of Suffolk, Francois and Mary travelled to England, where they were crowned by Nicholas Heath, Archbishop of York(since the See of Canterbury was vacant and the Protestants had uprooted the entire Catholic hierarchy in Wessex and the Home Counties during the War), in the Westminster Abbey as “Francis and Mary, by the Grace of God, King and Queen of England, Scotland and Ireland, Dauphin and Dauphine of Viennois, Defenders of the Faith”.
(Francois and Mary's coat of arms, Scottish version, 1559-1560)
The coronation was celebrated with great pomp, with pageantries and symbolic scenes shown throughout the procession. The main themes throughout the procession were the Union of Valois and Plantagenets, unification of British realms under one crown, and the end of religious strife.
To spite John Knox, the image of Mary as a new-age Deborah was deliberately used in the coronation pageantry.
Mary then issued a royal proclamation that would formally recognize the Reformed denomination as a distinct religious group under the condition that they would not actively proselyte among existing Catholic population. Mary and Francois then travelled North to Scotland, where Francois was crowned King of Scots for his lifetime(as a junior co-ruler) by the Archbishop of St. Andrews.
Marie de Guise was proud of Mary’s newly shown stateswoman-ship, while the Ultra-Catholics were disappointed. Catholic sees in Home Countries were gradually re-filled with new appointments, while moderate Protestants enjoyed the religiously tolerant atmosphere. In spite of rants from John Knox, moderate Protestants in Edinburgh and Glasgow were content to be able to hold services in discreet congregations. Marie de Guise continued to serve as regent of Scotland until her death in 1560(as OTL), while Matthew Stewart was pardoned and made regent for England(after all, his son was now the heir presumptive to the unified crowns, with the Earl of Arran bastardized as required by the treaty).
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Mary and Francois’ reign was marked with religious discontent in all of their realms. Back in France, the struggle between the Huguenot Prince of Conde and Catholic Charles, Cardinal of Lorraine continued, with religious bloodshed continuing to haunt the people of France, something Mary could not stop(as unlike in Scotland and England, she was devoid of political powers in France). Black legends about Francois and Mary circulated across France and ultimately to England and Scotland, providing fertile ground for Habsburg intervention, which, ironically, caused the rivalry to subside.
Amidst the chaos, Henri II died(a year after OTL) on a hunting trip, and Francois succeeded as Francois II. Rumours circulated in France that Francois had killed his own father(or even that Mary had murdered her father-in-law in order to seize power in France), which were, of course, false. But such rumours continued. Shortly after, Francois was crowned King of France in Reims Cathedral by his uncle-in-law, Charles de Guise, Archbishop of Reims. Mary was separately crowned Queen of France with the Crown of Jeanne d'Everux in accordance of French customs.
(Francois and Mary's coat of arms, French and Scottish version, 1560-1561)
PS: I have used Scottish versions for both coats of arms since Mary was Queen of Scots first and then Queen of England and Ireland and in recognition of the ancient Auld Alliance. Since Pope Paul IV declared Philip II and Mary I as King and Queen of Ireland, it would be likely for Ireland to be shown on Mary's arms as the title had now been recognized in the Catholic world.
On the St. Andrews Day of 1561, Mary and Francois embarked on their first official visit to Scotland since Francois' coronation as King of Scots in 1559 and as King of France in 1560. In Stirling Castle, Mary gave birth to a girl. While Francois wanted the girl to be named Catherine, Mary wanted to give her a more Scottish/English-sounding name, as she would be going to be heir to all of their British realms. The girl was ultimately named Margaret Antoinette, after Mary’s two grandmothers, Margaret Tudor and Antoinette de Bourbon. The news was met with an angry rant from John Knox. As the monarchs travelled to England, Francois received boos from many English people, while Mary was well-accepted(except by some Protestants who refused to recognize the treaty).
Amidst the chaos, Henri II died(a year after OTL) on a hunting trip, and Francois succeeded as Francois II. Rumours circulated in France that Francois had killed his own father(or even that Mary had murdered her father-in-law in order to seize power in France), which were, of course, false. But such rumours continued. Shortly after, Francois was crowned King of France in Reims Cathedral by his uncle-in-law, Charles de Guise, Archbishop of Reims. Mary was separately crowned Queen of France with the Crown of Jeanne d'Everux in accordance of French customs.
(Francois and Mary's coat of arms, French and Scottish version, 1560-1561)
PS: I have used Scottish versions for both coats of arms since Mary was Queen of Scots first and then Queen of England and Ireland and in recognition of the ancient Auld Alliance. Since Pope Paul IV declared Philip II and Mary I as King and Queen of Ireland, it would be likely for Ireland to be shown on Mary's arms as the title had now been recognized in the Catholic world.
On the St. Andrews Day of 1561, Mary and Francois embarked on their first official visit to Scotland since Francois' coronation as King of Scots in 1559 and as King of France in 1560. In Stirling Castle, Mary gave birth to a girl. While Francois wanted the girl to be named Catherine, Mary wanted to give her a more Scottish/English-sounding name, as she would be going to be heir to all of their British realms. The girl was ultimately named Margaret Antoinette, after Mary’s two grandmothers, Margaret Tudor and Antoinette de Bourbon. The news was met with an angry rant from John Knox. As the monarchs travelled to England, Francois received boos from many English people, while Mary was well-accepted(except by some Protestants who refused to recognize the treaty).
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Why would Francis agree to this? It makes more sense that their second son get Scotland and their eldest gets France.
The legality also seems iffy.
It is several centuries down the line from this point, but IIRC IOTL there was a whole debate over whether the Spanish Bourbon's renunciation of their claim to the French throne was a legitimate action. Francois effectively renouncing the throne on behalf of his unborn future children might raise the same issue?
It might, but idk the ins and outs of that one so I can't say.
What I really don't see happening is Francis effectively disinheriting his children in favor of his brother or anyone so much as suggesting so. Why would anyone give up France to have England and Scotland?
Because Francis has a clear heir of his own (plus a daughter would be unable to inherit France)? Charles inheriting France is not a given if Francis and. Mary had at least two surviving children and one of them is a boy. Also if they can not keep all the crowns made more sense renouncing to France (who can go to Francis’ next brother) instead of England and Scotland (who would go to the Lennnox)
The Guises would presumably be quite perturbed as well, particularly given there's already anti-Guise forces on the rise in France.
A great-nephew on the French throne is much better for them than one on the Anglo-Scottish one.
The way its worded- at least to me- suggests that France will go to Charles, regardless of Mary and Francis having a boy.
Idk if I misread "Scotland go to their offspring and France to Charles, brother of Francois" but it sounds like Francis' offspring won't be allowed to get France, whether or not they have a son(s).
The treaty is worded badly but in that point is clearly talking about offspring aka only one child not more so is giving the split in the case in which Mary and Francis had only one surviving child as the crowns MUST be separated, if you see the treaty do say nothing about England (who must be named together with Scotland). That is Henry II’s work to guarantee who his line will rule on both England/Scotland and France
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AFAIK "offspring" does not have a grammatically correct plural and thus is referring to all the children that Francis and Mary have.
True. I haven't clarified about this. The part has been revised.
@isabella @CaptainShadow
The new edition is:
In this TL Francois and Mary had a daughter, so the second situation applied. Guises hated Earl of Arran, so bastardizing Earl of Arran would be a must if Guises had to approve this treaty.
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