True enough, though not punishing her husbands murderers made her look complicit.. In any case I think the Archduke Charles would be the ideal candidate...
What would happen if Mary I of England, Lady Elizabeth Tudor, Frances Brandon and Margaret Douglas somehow all died in 1558?
- Thread starter Geoffrey1016
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But Archduke Charles may disturb the hard-won religious balance. He believed in counter-reformation, while Mary preferred general religious peace. The Archduke, his Austrian advisors and and the Jesuits could probably ally with the Earl of Huntly and several Archbishops appointed by Mary I of England to dismantle any religious compromise Mary(II&I) and her religiously moderate supporters might reach with the Calvinists, and thus would likely repeating another Marian persecution. While the Archduke historically was able to be persuaded by his Estates to tolerate Protestants, I wonder whether he would choose force or moderation once he came to Scotland/England. Would the Scottish Parliament be able to pass Mary's plan into law, thus forcing the Archduke's hand and precluding a conspiracy between Archduke Charles and Earl of Huntly to set up a Scottish Inquisition? Or would Mary ignore the Austrians' advice and continue her policies?
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If Mary inherited the England crown DIRECTLY from Mary Tudor she would NOT need any religious compromise as she would take under her rule two (at least formally) Catholics kingdoms in which protestant religions were NOT accepted (specially in England) or barely tolerated.
Mary and her mother both opposed the existence of a Scottish inquisition, and based on what we knew about Mary's personal book collection, she likely held a deep understanding of both Catholics and Protestants.
There would always be a Protestant resurgence once Mary I of England died, although radical ones would be destroyed by both two Maries.
It's interesting that, until 1558, Charles de Guise, Mary's uncle and Cardinal of Lorraine, supported a peaceful reunification of Catholicism and Protestantism.
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The inquisition will die with Mary I, but protestants will be (barely) tolerated in both Kingdoms. Without a protestant Elizabeth on the English throne is unlikely who Scotland will be forced to play along with protestants. ATL England and Scotland would be Catholics kingdoms in which protestants are tolerated and not persecuted until they start to cause unrest in the best option. ATL protestant nobles would lack support for asking more and Marie has NO NEED to compromise with them (unlike OTL where Scottish protestants were supported by England and Marie was forced to compromise in the hope of being recognised as heiress presumptive of England)
This is an ideal situation, for both Mary, her Privy Councils, her Lords Lieutenant in Scotland, England and Ireland, the Parliaments(although the Irish Parliament needed approval from London for a bill to proceed in the Parliament), and the people of the three kingdoms.
But if Mary then married Archduke Charles of Inner Austria, would the Archduke conspire with the Earl of Huntly(who was then governor of Mar and Moray, at least until Mary restored the rightful heir to the Earldom of Mar, and who was a power-hungry ultra-Catholic) to set up an Inquisition? Or would Scottish Parliament stop them, like how the Estates of Styria stopped the Archduke from setting up inquisition in his own Duchies?
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Pretty unlikely he would do it, specially against Mary’s will. Scottish AND English parliament would NOT support that so is likely who he will dedicate himself only to a strong work for reconvert as many people he can in both Scotland and England with full support of Mary.
I still would like to leave Archduke Charles at his OTL life, marrying Elisabeth of France to don Carlos as originally planned and so leaving Philip free to remarry to Marie once she is widowed (because a Kingdom who included England, Scotland, Ireland and the Netherlands is intriguing amd I think who Philip would be better than his cousin Charles as husband for Marie)
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And the English, Scottish and Irish Parliament together would say "NO". After 4 years of in marital union with Spain and 2 years with France, they would be enough of another marital union with a major continental power. Archduke Charles's territory(Styria, Carinthia, Carniola and Littorale)wasn't that large, thus allowing such a match to happen, while a marriage with Philip II would be politically dangerous.
How hs this come about? Has Mary Tudor lived another year, or has Francois II died a year earlier? If MQoS is still Queen of France she won't stand an earthly.
In 1558? Mary, Queen of Scots is going to definitely claim the throne, but I doubt she'll get it. The most likely scenario I see is the nobility England pushing for Catherine Grey to ascend, maybe marrying her to either Henry Stewart and pushing for a coup to put the Earl of Lennox on the Scottish Throne, or marrying her to Henry Hastings (probably more likely IMO but dealer's choice). Mary might have the might of France behind her, but in 1558 the Hapsburgs will do everything in their power to keep England independent from their enemies, and that means backing the next most legitimate non-Mary heir, which is Catherine. A Catherine/Hastings match also means that they can prevent Mary from claiming her Scottish throne is being usurped, which might be useful. Depends on how invested in Scotland they want to get at this point, considering how shaky their own monarchy is. They probably wait a generation, until the Grey/Hastings or Grey/Stewart dynasty has a few branches.
Here's the thing, those negotiations could never have really gone through. England might not want to go to war, but they also know a foreign Queen who is the bride of the future King of France, a traditional English enemy to which they just lost their one continental jewel, will not be accepted by the country. Even if it's formally announced, which would rely on Mary Tudor agreeing to something she never once even leaned towards on record, it will be ignored by pretty much everyone in order to find an English candidate. You might have the Earl of Huntington marry Catherine Grey and form a coalition against the Earl of Derby and Margaret Clifford, who probably lose simply because they not a united front OTL and the stress of a civil war could make that worse. However, more likely Derby and his wife just allow themselves to be bought off and acknowledged as the next heirs after the Greys, which matches their movements around this time regardless, and scheme behind the scenes.
The claim of the entire Grey family as the heir to the throne in either 1553 or 1558 rested upon Henry VIII's will, which was signed with a dry stamp and thus disputed by many people opposed to Lady Jane Grey and her entire family. Furthermore, the Grey family was linked to Protestantism and anti-Catholicism, alienating them from Catholics. On this point Mary did have an advantage, as while she was a devout Catholic, she was a moderate who would be willing to tolerate Protestants. Unlike in OTL, this time she would be the heir according to both domestic and international law, as the Franco-English treaty to end the Calais war would be part of English law in such a scenario. Pope Paul IV would probably back Mary, as she was the heir-general, and the Pope at the time was in odd with Philip II.
For the issue of English incorporation into a continental empire, the treaty would, as said above, ensure that the throne would go separate once both Francois and Mary died, and the Scottish Parliament would pass a law to ensure this and make Scottish and English succession law in harmony with each other.
Habsburgs would not back an obscure nobody onto the English throne. They would be more likely to back Lord Darnley as King of England, as Margaret Douglas was Mary I of England's preferred heir.
As the supporters of two different granddaughters of Mary "Rose" Tudor fought on the battle, Margaret Tudor's descendants would not keep quiet: A French army led by Francois de Guise would land on England to put Mary Queen of Scots onto the English throne(as Mary II). Habsburgs would declare Lord Darnley King of England, match a Habsburg archduchess to him, and send an army from Flanders to achieve this.
Marie de Guise would notice how the Civil War is spilling into Scotland, would work to prevent the Scottish monarchy from being toppled by Habsburgs and English-backed rebels in case Mary lost the War of the English succession. Mary Queen of Scots would then declare amnesty towards moderate Protestants, splitting off some supporters away from Catherine Grey(although how successful the strategy would be, we would not know).
In the worst-case scenario, the two Maries would rely on Irish support in exchange for the end of Mary I and Philip II's project to settle Englishmen in Offaly and Laois, as well as further non-interference of Gaelic ways of life in Ireland, as either a Clifford or Grey victory would result in increased English plantation of Ireland and thus largescale displacement of Irish from their home.
Who would be the ultimate winner of this War of the English Succession would be unclear, although Mary Queen of Scots would have a clear advantage against the descendants of Mary "Rose" Tudor.
PS: I apologize for the typo above involving King or Queen, it should be "The English Parliament would likely quarrel about whether Lord Darnley, Catherine Grey or Margaret Clifford, should succeed Mary I of England, until someone reminded the English that Henri II would only make peace with the English if they recognize Mary Queen of Scots as the heir to the English throne. "
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That's a possible outcome, but again, England was fiercely anti-French, had just lost their only continental port very recently, and upon Mary Tudor's death are going to finally be free from a foreign personal union, which they hated. Even if the Queen is interested in leaving the throne to the Scottish Queen in France, which I doubt she is (OTL she made moves for Margaret Douglas and her children, not Mary Stuart), no one else is going to back it. The Pope might be at odds with Philip II of Spain, but an overly powerful France is not in his favour either.
Foreign nationals were also an iffy area when it came to royal succession, and considering that Mary Tudor's Lancastrian claim could quite easily have been superseded by about a dozen foreign royals, including her husband, it's safe to say that at this point England had a domestic preference which would prefer Henry Stewart, Catherine Grey, Margaret Clifford or Henry Hastings. I think that Catherine probably has the best bet, paired with one of the male claimants, and if you have Mary doing the work of setting up a successor in a scenario where it's only these four to choose from, she probably marries Catherine off to Henry Stewart and calls it a day. Mary Stuart is legally, shakily, going to claim the throne, but it'll probably end up being on par with Henry VIII still claiming France. Just because you say you're heir doesn't make it so, and even if the Pope agrees, doesn't make it so.
I agree that the Hapsburgs are likely to back Henry Stewart, particularly if he's picked by Mary Tudor as heir, but also, they did definitely support Catherine Grey during Elizabeth's reign over Margaret Douglas and her children, so it's kind of a tossup. And again, they probably get married. It should also be noted that the Lennox clan seem to have been really unpopular at pretty much every point of the Tudor reign outside of Mary Tudor personally, so it's possible that they're just set aside and fume about it, maybe supporting Mary Stuart, particularly since Henry VIII's will gives a shaky grounds to exclude Margaret Tudor's descendants, and they are technically foreign nationals.
Now a French invasion is a possibility, but I'm guessing would probably never actually happen in that way. Henry II of France was not a really prolific warrior King, and if he dies as OTL Catherine de Medici will certainly not push for it. The Guises' may want to, but it's going to come down to the actual royals, and invading England on shaky legal grounds, for a country that is doing everything it can to oppose you, when you have the Spanish King backing your opponent, is going to be difficult, particularly if they start making noises that they could usurp the Scottish Queen's throne. Most likely it does end up breaking out by 1560, but I just cannot see a Stewart/Grey or Hastings/Grey dynasty falling in this scenario. It just doesn't seem plausible.
It ultimately comes down to what would be more effective in a War for English Succession: domestic support w/ some foreign support, or foreign support w/ some domestic support. Mary Stuart had about the same amount of claim against Elizabeth Tudor, so it isn't like we never saw a version of this happen OTL. If Mary Tudor supports an heir and they ascend, there's probably a minimal chance that France will actually invade.
Mary and the Lennox Stewarts' claim against Catherine Grey would be more solid than her claim against Elizabeth Tudor, as there are two Margaret Tudor descendants on the line between Mary and Catherine in this TL(and Catherine was 7th in line in 1558 in OTL).
Since a majority of English people in 1558 were either Catholic or nominally Catholic, Papal endorsement for either of the two major descendants of Margaret Tudor would boost support for either Mary or the Lennox Stewarts. No good Catholic would like to find himself/herself supporting a candidate denounced by the Pope as an usurper. Catherine's main support base would be Protestants(especially Southeastern English ones).
Talking about Lennox Stewarts' ability to enforce their claim, while Mary could co-opt the Lennox Stewarts by restoring the title of Earl of Lennox and all of the Scottish holdings of Matthew Stewart, Earl of Lennox, to Lord Darnley, as well as removing the Earl of Arran and his extended family from the line of Scottish succession(a major goal of Lennox Stuarts over years), Habsburgs would still use the Lennox Stewarts as figureheads. This is the exact meaning of being a claimant, which doesn't mean that one actually claims a throne, but means that someone can use one to claim a throne. Or, in worst-case scenario, Philip II could claim the throne outright.
The overall foreign and domestic endorsement of English claimants would be like
France would endorse Mary Queen of Scots, of course.
The Habsburg Monarchy would endorse Lord Darnley. If the Lennox Stewarts capitulated to Mary, then Philip II might claim the throne by himself as the heir of John of Gaunt through both Blanche of Lancaster and Constanza of Castile. (Lady Catherine Grey was descended from Blanche's second daughter, while Philip II was descended from Blanche's first daughter).
Domestic Protestants would endorse Catherine Grey.
Domestic Catholics would be in disarray, although they are a majority. Some would back the candidate backed by the Pope. Others would stick to one of the three Catholic claimants. Margaret Clifford would jump out and get some support from surrounding Catholics, but she would be the weakest of the three claimants, as she was the most junior one among the three major Catholic candidates. Lord Darnley would theoretically be the main candidate, but in case of Lennox capitulation, the subsequent actions of English Catholics would be unclear. Either endorsing Mary in exchange for separating the French crown from the British crowns after Mary died or turning toward Margaret Clifford would be possible.
Foreign Protestants would also endorse Catherine Grey, as English emigres in Geneva would likely want to avenge for the execution of Lady Jane Grey.
Some additional notes:
Margaret Clifford's father-in-law was the Lord of Mann, which was close to Mary's home territory. A Scottish occupation of the Isle of Mann(or, in the eye of Marie de Guise and Mary Queen of Scots, "confiscation") would likely discourage Margaret Clifford from claiming a throne for which she was only 6th in line per primogeniture even after the elimination of two major candidates, the Countess of Lennox and Duchess of Suffolk, in this TL.
In any scenario of Catherine Grey victory, Catholicism would be equivalent to treason, and there would be a return to 1552.
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I don't disagree with a lot of this, I just don't think it ends with Mary Stuart being Queen. Domestic Catholics OTL sided with the domestic, Protestant option over Mary Stuart, and here, with a teenaged Catholic King in Henry Stewart likely married off to the Protestant heiress of Henry VIII's will, there's really no reason to consider anyone else for most Englishmen. That, paired with Hapsburg support, is probably enough for Matthew Stewart to stick it out. Plus, if Catherine and Henry are married, they can probably ascend without executing Catholics, which will dampen most Catholic support of the Scottish Queen. Mary Stuart, as with OTL, probably responds by claiming England without much action, reaches out to a likely more open English court for conciliation circa 1560 when she's widowed, and probably marries an Archduke by 1565. Margaret Clifford and her husband have more to argue about.
And the Earl of Arran would feel that a time bomb is going to explode in the South, as the Stewarts of Lennox believed that Earl of Arran was illegitimate, making Matthew Stewart Mary's immediate heir to the Scottish throne if both Mary and Francis died without children. Maybe an agreement between the Earl of Arran and Matthew Stewart would be needed before Mary could sign the agreement that would recognize the legitimacy of Stewart-Lennox rule in England.
Note: Much of my earlier ideas about how a Franco-Habsburg agreement related to Mary's claim to the throne would involve the total bastardization of the Earl of Arran, whom the Guises hated both in France and Scotland. But in such a scenario, in which a Stewart descended from Margaret Tudor married a Grey heiress descended from Mary "Rose" Tudor, the opposite would be going to happen, with the Stewarts of Lennox renouncing their claim to the Scottish throne in exchange for Mary's removal of English arms from her blazon.
The key problem for the two rival claims from Margaret Tudor was over the 1351 Act about foreign-born heirs. Whether the monarchy itself was affected is unclear, leaving something that Mary I of England and Charles de Guise, Archbishop of Reims and Cardinal of Lorraine could debate through a lot of pamphlets. Recognizing the validity of the stricter interpretation of 1351 Act would be much easier for Mary than to recognize Henry VIII's will(or the crackpot legal theory floating in England at the time that Margaret Tudor had forfeited her rights upon her marriage to James IV).
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Honestly everything to do with the Lennox claims in Scotland is going to take forever to sort out, it'll be held over their heads for decades, and once England and Scotland inevitably end up in a union later anyway it'll probably become the moot point it was OTL. It relies on Mary totally setting aside the Arrans, which she can't do easily. Mary probably recognises them eventually once it becomes clear she doesn't really have the man power or allies to make her claim known, but plots regardless. It probably backfires later. That was kind of her style.
Didn't Max II refuse permission for that match OTL? Not to mention that given how poorly-received Felipe II was a few years earlier, would a Habsburg match be accepted by the English?
Charles was also the main proponent of a match with Archduke Karl IIRC,so go figure
I do not about that (and really for what reason he would refute permission? Also Karl was a pretender also for ElizaBeth). I believed who Mary herself was pretty uncertain about that match (for the rank of the groom and political complications, plus she likely wanted marry don Carlos)