What would happen if Austria won the Seven Week's War?

Saphroneth

Banned
In terms of allowing a victory, there are several possibilities. Here's a minor training change which would result in a huge change in the outcome of the war, and a change almost invisible until it actually came up:


In OTL 1859 the French defeated the Austrians, by way of bayonet charges through the "beaten zone" with the Austrian troops firing too high (as they were not well trained in using the rifle-musket).

OTL the Austrians decided the French way of fighting was better, and switched to a shock-action focus.
If in TTL the Austrians decided instead to improve their musketry training, then they'd probably actually win most firefights (as the Dreyse is very short ranged compared to a proper rifle-musket).

2. You are quite right when you say the military would require reform, Archduke Albrecht will play big role here as well. IOTL he reformed the Austrian army along a Prussian model and the same should happen in TTL. Crucially the adoption of Dreyse needle guns instead of the muzzle-loaded guns the Austrians used in the war.

See above. A well aimed rifle musket is not inferior to the Dreyse - what made the Prussian Dreyse so effective in the OTL war was a massive programme of accuracy training in Prussia which started in the early 1860s. (The key was that Prussian troops estimated their own range, and Austrian ones had the range fed to them, which made the whole system sluggish - if the Austrians are trained in range estimation instead, they'd have about 2-3 times the effective range of the Dreyse and would win plenty of firefights.)
 
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But if Austria wins 1866,couldn't some of the Italian principalities be restored?I seriously can't imagine the Italians would get away unscratched.Both the Prussians and the Savoyards/Italians have burnt way too many bridges with the Habsburgs.

To be honest I feel the same, obviously as a Habsburg Apologist I always will take their side and wish all their enemies be ground into the dust. Buuuuutttt the Habsburgs made an agreement of sorts with the French involving Venetia where they give it up in exchange for gains elsewhere from Prussia (Silesia?). That however doesn't the Italians would ever get off scott-free the Austrians will demand some serious money out of losing that territory and promises to leave any other claims in the past. Said indemnities will no doubt royally screw the economy and lead to the French gaining more influence as a result from giving out loans. That alliance will of course never work long term and no doubt the Italians will switch sides in any great war scenario if the Austrians promise them gains from the French (lmfao)

And though their Italian cousins won't regain their thrones they'll be more than compensated from regions dismembered off of a crippled Prussian Kingdom. Of course all of which will be nominally just any other German independent state Confederation, but in reality they'll have learned to toe family line in order to prevent losing their lands again. Pushing loyally for whatever grand design Vienna has.

Schleswig-Holstien are still independent but retained in the Confederation as Austria did not under any circumstances want to return them to Denmark. They would be united as semi-independent Duchy which in reality would be an Austrian vassal with presumably an Hapsburg at the head of it.

I thought the same with this there's more than one cadet branch that the Habsburgs could put there no doubt.

Austria backs off from the Balkans and focuses on German affairs while Nicholas is allowed for an attempt to establish an hegemony in the region in his wars with the Ottomans. Should Austria have no interest in Serbia then it could be possible for the Austrians and Russians to establish an alliance later down the line.

And really this too, with the Austrians busy with creating their own federalized rendition of a united Germany they'll be less likely to want to rub the Russians the wrong way. And both sides will naturally see each other as allies since they both represent members of the old order, so some sort of agreement will no doubt be reached between the two.

In a decade or two France and Austria will once again become rivals and slowly drift against each other. It won't be as bad as OTL Franco-German relations after the Franco-Prussian War as Alsace-Lorraine is still in French hands and the Austrians presumably wouldn't want to press claims on it. This could lead to an alternate Great War based on allies of France versus allies of Austria. Great Britain could ally with Austria with the Hapsburgs being its friend in Central Europe while France allies with Prussia in an attempt to create an German state that can combat Austria.

And in the aftermath of that if all things go well the last bits of "German" Prussia can be annexed and house Hohenzollen finally subdued for good and all. Meanwhile any Habsburgs pretensions of a

Austria-Hungary will not exist but the Hungarians will get greater rights and some Confederation of the Danube or a Federal Austrian Empire may be created. No doubt whatever the scenario that results will face huge opposition from all sides of the Empire.

Literally getting Mitteleuropa feels thinking about it. Initially one can see Habsburg Empire with a series of states running from the North Sea to the Aegean, and long term to the Baltic . With this revamped German Federation (no doubt recognized as an inheritor of the HRE, the Hungarian Kingdom to whatever else they create. Definitely a fun mental exercise in how Habsburg Middle Europe will be arranged and managed over time.
 
So Prussian dreams of a united Germany are crushed... for now. There's no other country with the power and interest to make it happen so a future punt seems likely allied with Italy and possibly France depending on how Vienna acts with its renewed dominance. However I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere down the line a future Austrian Emperor realises the status quo is doomed, takes the title Emperor of Germany, probably a very confederal state, and leaves the rest of the Empire to various relatives.
 
On Italian matters: Franz Joseph still was the King of the Lombardo-Venetian Kingdom, which he was loath to lose, and as such may well have pressed - if he so chose - for some kind of territorial change. For sure, Italy will be forced to renounce any claims to Venetia - of course, just until the next occasion arises.
On Germany matters: at this stage, France still is wary of Austria and as such will definitely intercede on Prussia's behalf to prevent any harsh peace. As others noted, I can see an uneasy peace starting up before a second bout starts.
 
On Germany matters: at this stage, France still is wary of Austria and as such will definitely intercede on Prussia's behalf to prevent any harsh peace.


You mean Nap III would want Prussia to keep the Rhenish Provinces, so establishing her on France's doorstep? Hardly.

And what could he actually do? Going to war as an ally of Prussia would be really, really unpopular in France [1]. He'd be lucky to keep his throne.

[1]French deputies cheered and threw their hats in the air at an early, false report to the Chamber of an Austrian victory.
 
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Hi everyone, so I'm going to be starting a new TL soon in the 1860's, and while the main POD will have to do with the American Civil War, one of the major butterfly effects that I plan to change will be the outcome of the Austro-Prussian War. Before I comment I'd just like to ask if the Battle of Koniggratz was won by Austria, if it would lead to a decisively Austrian victory immediately or a more prolonged war with a still open possibility for either the Prussians or the Austrians to win?

The former unless the Austrians were monumentally stupid - which cannot be ruled out but isn't inevitable.

The Prussian army was on the wrong side of a massive mountain range. To get into Bohemia it had to split itself in three to negotiate three narrow passes. It would have to repeat this in reverse to get out again. Not easy with a victorious foe hard on your heels.

Also, if defeated, the Prussians would be retreating over land already stripped by her foraging parties. At Koniggratz, they had already been fighting on empty stomachs, having eaten little for two days. And any foraging they tried to do on the retreat would be harassed by cavalry, an arm in which the Austrians were superior. In short, their only hope of survival would be some super-colossal blunder on the Austrians' part. This is no doubt what Moltke had in mind when he told the King (who was getting nervous and talking about retreat) that "We are fighting here for the very existence of Prussia".
 
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I hate to be a stick in the mud but I don't think a partition of Prussia is going to happen as spectacular as that would be.

Venetia is lost per the agreement with N III who by the way is full of it. What he really wanted was a drawn out war that France could arbitrate, intervene in, or otherwise benefit from.

What you would probably see is a quick peace with a return of the confederation along the lines of the proposed reforms of 1863. Bismarck is toast, Prussian based unification is stopped in its tracks, Wilhelm is concerned for his throne. Prussia acquiesces. Schleswig-Holstein is handed to the Duke of Augustenburg.

I like the idea someone had about two confederations. A German one and a multinational one with Vienna as the center of it all. I think that is what was desired in some fashion or another all along.
 
I hate to be a stick in the mud but I don't think a partition of Prussia is going to happen as spectacular as that would be.

Venetia is lost per the agreement with N III who by the way is full of it. What he really wanted was a drawn out war that France could arbitrate, intervene in, or otherwise benefit from.

What you would probably see is a quick peace with a return of the confederation along the lines of the proposed reforms of 1863. Bismarck is toast, Prussian based unification is stopped in its tracks, Wilhelm is concerned for his throne. Prussia acquiesces. Schleswig-Holstein is handed to the Duke of Augustenburg.

I like the idea someone had about two confederations. A German one and a multinational one with Vienna as the center of it all. I think that is what was desired in some fashion or another all along.
At the very least Austria will gain Silesia, as per they agreement with Nap III, but the rest may be a push as you say.
That was my idea and yes, I agree with you on the point that it may well have been an aim for the Habsburgs by this point.
 
I hate to be a stick in the mud but I don't think a partition of Prussia is going to happen as spectacular as that would be.

Venetia is lost per the agreement with N III who by the way is full of it. What he really wanted was a drawn out war that France could arbitrate, intervene in, or otherwise benefit from.

What you would probably see is a quick peace with a return of the confederation along the lines of the proposed reforms of 1863. Bismarck is toast, Prussian based unification is stopped in its tracks, Wilhelm is concerned for his throne. Prussia acquiesces. Schleswig-Holstein is handed to the Duke of Augustenburg.

I like the idea someone had about two confederations. A German one and a multinational one with Vienna as the center of it all. I think that is what was desired in some fashion or another all along.

OTOH he acquiesced fast enough in the Prussian victory once it was a fait accompli.

Also, what specific points would he object to? Not Silesia, because that is the quid pro quo for getting the Austrians out of Italy, a subject with which he is obsessed. And no Frenchman can possibly object to the Prussians being evicted from the Rhine, and those provinces shared out among several minor rulers. Even if two of the latter are Habsburgs, that will be (or at least appear at first sight) better for France than having Prussia there.
 
You mean Nap III would want Prussia to keep the Rhenish Provinces, so establishing her on France's doorstep? Hardly.

And what could he actually do? Going to war as an ally of Prussia would be really, really unpopular in France [1]. He'd be lucky to keep his throne.

[1]French deputies cheered and threw their hat's in the air at an early, false report to the Chamber of an Austrian victory.

I'm not saying he'd go to war with Prussia, just that he'd moderate any peace. Not much point in trading Prussia for Austria as the defender of all things German.
 
I'm not saying he'd go to war with Prussia, just that he'd moderate any peace. Not much point in trading Prussia for Austria as the defender of all things German.
That is if he doesn't get ignored or that the Austrians don't just screw him over and reneged deals made with him.IOTL,he did nothing after the Prussians rejected his demands for territorial 'compensation' after they just finished the war.
 
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Maybe I am thinking too much in terms of Austrian weakness and see a victory in avoiding a defeat. A draw that takes the air out of Prussian driven unification.

Absent a strong Prussia, who is going to be Austria's ally in checking French and/or Russian power?

Another question. What is the Rhineland state called do you think? Palatinate? That's sufficiently throw backy for the liking of FJ.
 
Another question. What is the Rhineland state called do you think? Palatinate? That's sufficiently throw backy for the liking of FJ.

That name was already taken for the detached portion of Bavaria on the Rhine.

The biggest part (probably going to the ex-GD of Tuscany) might be called "Lower Lotharingia" or maybe "Austrasia". The GD of Modena would get a smaller bit, probably just named after its chief town.
 
Maybe I am thinking too much in terms of Austrian weakness and see a victory in avoiding a defeat. A draw that takes the air out of Prussian driven unification.

Absent a strong Prussia, who is going to be Austria's ally in checking French and/or Russian power?

Another question. What is the Rhineland state called do you think? Palatinate? That's sufficiently throw backy for the liking of FJ.
Britain will be a great ally if Austria decides not to challenge British naval supremacy.I highly doubt it would be wise for Austria to spend too much on a navy.
 
If Prussia is getting kicked out of the German Confederation then what would happen with the Zollverein in this scenario? Austria wants to isolate Prussia in Germany but Prussia's economic role is important to the other states. Would Austria want to join itself?
 
If Prussia is getting kicked out of the German Confederation then what would happen with the Zollverein in this scenario? Austria wants to isolate Prussia in Germany but Prussia's economic role is important to the other states. Would Austria want to join itself?
Either gets dismantled or Austria creates an Austrian version of it.
 
Reviving the thread for a bit.
One thing i just decided to assume about an austrian victory in the Seven Weeks’ War is that, with a more stable empire and less prudence, Austria will be able to intervene in the coming Russo-Turkish War, most possibly on the christian side.
 
If Prussia does lose as much land as people suggest I could easily see it becoming a Russian Puppet or at the very least the junior partner in a close alliance.
Could be a similar relationship to what Bavaria had with France.
 
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