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With a POD of late-1781 on, what would it take for Virginia to give up on the idea of the Union?

Would it be one single large issue like land cessions or slavery? Is there a line in the sand for any of the states in the 1780s and 1790s. Would an explicit ban on slavery in all federal territories or even a timeline for manumission (however unlikely that is) be enough?

Or would it have to be a series of knocks (the death of Washington or Madison, land cessions, slavery, debt, a less successful Constitutional Convention, the location of the federal district, a war with Britain in the 1790s, the election of 1800, etc.) where Virginia comes out on the ‘losing’ side often enough that the state doesn’t see the point in staying in the Union?

Thanks you in advance for your thoughts.
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