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The defeat for France I have in mind has Germany getting lucky and seizing Paris while AH captures a Russian Army and overruns Serbia, with Italy and the Ottoman Empire staying neutral, Belgium completely occupied, the BEF mauled, and the war over by the early-mid Fall.

The victory for France is OTL.

Which option would have done more to weaken France as a Great Power (and all it entails economically [manufacturing, agriculture, finance, the works], militarily, culturally, willingness and ability to assert itself), contract its empire (in the short and long run), and reduce its living standards?
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