What would be the reactions of the United States if AMLO won the 2006 elections in Mexico?

In the 2006 elections in Mexico, Andrés Manuel Lopéz Obrador (AMLO) was on the verge of becoming president in a very close election.
And if he had won the election, how would the United States have reacted? And the other countries? And inside the country?
Bonus: I will thank you if you give me your views on what the Presidency of Lopéz Obrador would be like, can you answer all or some of the following questions:

would war be avoided?

What would be its economic, security and social policies?

How do you see the future of Mexico as AMLO? and the 2009 and 2012 elections?
 
um... a little background here? War with who? and just what was AMLO planning that would cause the US such grief?
I'm sorry. It was lost in translation, spoken of the War on Narcotics that began in 2006 with Calderón and continues to this day.
Obrador has been accused of being a danger to Mexico, a leftist and a communist/socialist.
 
I'm sorry. It was lost in translation, spoken of the War on Narcotics that began in 2006 with Calderón and continues to this day.
Obrador has been accused of being a danger to Mexico, a leftist and a communist/socialist.

And he's probably going to be the President by year's end.
 
I'm sorry. It was lost in translation, spoken of the War on Narcotics that began in 2006 with Calderón and continues to this day.
Obrador has been accused of being a danger to Mexico, a leftist and a communist/socialist.
but... was he all that? Even if he was, it's extremely unlikely that it would lead to war... unless he does something really insane and provocative to tweak us into it... I don't see that happening.
 

manav95

Banned
but... was he all that? Even if he was, it's extremely unlikely that it would lead to war... unless he does something really insane and provocative to tweak us into it... I don't see that happening.

Mexico declaring war on the US right now is ASB unless some Communist government takes over and starts picking a fight with the US. Mexico is already dealing with the cartels and local autodefensa movements; a war with the Anglos and their supreme military might is something no Mexican leader would sanely consider.
 
Probably what it is for most countries who have an election. A phone call of congratulations, etc.

Obrador isn't really a rip up NAFTA type, so I doubt much would change. The Bush Administration got on well enough with the PAN and probably would be a bit less excited at working with the guy but really, its unlikely there would be much of an issue. He might try to nationalize some stuff and it would probably fail like most things in Mexico seem to fail.
 
The Bush admistration would be pissed off. Not in the "invade Mexico and teach them who to pick at elections" sense however. Not because I feel they'd be above that; it is the sort of thing both evil and stupid that they might consider actually, but simple because in 2006 the US are not in the position, militarily and even less politically, to pick a fight with Mexico of all places.
You see considerable cooling of relations at least until Obama takes over (if he does ITTL, which I see non compelling reason for him not to). Perhaps Republican anti-immigrant and specifically anti-mexican discourse is more ingrained from earlier, though this is unlikely to be very helpful with theis Hispanic vote.
 
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