What would be the effects of unified Europe under Napoleon Bonaparte?

Here's one idea -- PoD is October 12, 1809, in the aftermath of the War of the Fifth Coalition, wherein Friedrich Stapps is successful in his assassination of Napoleon in Vienna, during the latter's observation of a military parade. So dies the Emperor of the French, the King of Italy, and the Protector of the Confederation of the Rhine.

So who succeeds him? Well, the third is dependent upon the first, while the second was to go to Eugene de Beauharnais (Empress Josephine's son by her first son, and adopted son to Napoleon). As to the all important Emperor of the French -- well, Joseph may technically be the de jure heir, he’s supposed to be busy as the France’s King of Spain, and not super popular besides, while Louis, who is next in line de jure is likewise busy as King of Holland but can put one of his sons on the French imperial throne. In this instance, Josephine would be regent, and is super popular with the military, French political leadership, etc. (Interesting OTL note -- within weeks of our PoD, Napoleon would tell his wife that he was divorcing her so as to marry an Austrian Archduchess; obviously, this is averted TTL.)

So we have a situation where Josephine is Regent to the French Emperor, while royal families made up of new men, most with ties to the Bonaparte / Beauharnais family, rule most of Europe:
  • her son as King of Italy
  • Murat (Marshall of France and former RHM to Nap) and Caroline (Napoleon's sister) in Naples
  • Napoleon's other two sisters, Elisa (and her common husband) and Pauline, each with a number of lesser titles (Duchesses of Tuscany and Gaustalla)
  • Louis and Hortense in Holland
  • Jerome in Westphalia, plus an assortment of other German marriages for Napoleon’s family
  • Joseph (possibly) remaining King of Spain
  • the Austrian Archduke likely to marry Joseph’s daughter (since no Archduchess marriage for Napoleon)
On top of this you have Bernadotte (another French Marshall) who is likely still invited to be regent and heir to Sweden, though in his case he's likely to be friendlier to Russia than to France (as he was OTL), in the interests of his new country.

Of course, none of this can last unless the new French government can reach some kind of peace with Britain. Fortunately, I think this is very much in the cards, for a number of reasons, but what it comes down to is that while Britain is likely to agree to negotiations at some point in 1810, France will need to be willing to make concessions. Fortunately, I think that an agreement based broadly on a kind of uti possidetis which recognizes French army dominance on the continent while the British Royal Navy's dominance of the sea, is acceptable to all parties at the point, or at least preferable to the risks of further prolonging the conflict. This will mean:
  • Iberia is split in some fashion (likely with Joseph remaining as King of the Peninsular Spain, while a demilitarized Portugal remains as a British ally)
  • the royal families of the Spanish Bourbons and Braganzas are relocated to the New World, with the Joseph forgoing all claim to Spanish America
  • Murat remains King of Naples on the southern part of the Italian peninsula, while the Neopolitan Bourbons retain their Kingdom in Sicily
  • other basics (France makes no more annexations, both parties resume trade, etc)
The result of this peace is the formalization of a new balance of power in Europe, dominated by three major players -- Britain France, and Russia.

Speaking of Russia, this would have major implications for them as well -- while the effects of averting the Invasion of the Grande Armee on Russian domestic policy alone is worth a discussion, we can, for the purposes of this thread, turn the focus on her war with the Turks (which started in 1806). The bottom line there being that, with a much freer hand the OTL, Russia stands a very good chance of wiping out Ottoman dominance of the Balkans far sooner than OTL, which would have further knockoff effects on the remaining Ottoman Empire as a whole.

But this is all fairly short term; how Europe develops throughout the 19th Century from then on is a conversation unto itself.
 
Here's one idea -- PoD is October 12, 1809, in the aftermath of the War of the Fifth Coalition, wherein Friedrich Stapps is successful in his assassination of Napoleon in Vienna, during the latter's observation of a military parade. So dies the Emperor of the French, the King of Italy, and the Protector of the Confederation of the Rhine.

So who succeeds him? Well, the third is dependent upon the first, while the second was to go to Eugene de Beauharnais (Empress Josephine's son by her first son, and adopted son to Napoleon). As to the all important Emperor of the French -- well, Joseph may technically be the de jure heir, he’s supposed to be busy as the France’s King of Spain, and not super popular besides, while Louis, who is next in line de jure is likewise busy as King of Holland but can put one of his sons on the French imperial throne. In this instance, Josephine would be regent, and is super popular with the military, French political leadership, etc. (Interesting OTL note -- within weeks of our PoD, Napoleon would tell his wife that he was divorcing her so as to marry an Austrian Archduchess; obviously, this is averted TTL.)

So we have a situation where Josephine is Regent to the French Emperor, while royal families made up of new men, most with ties to the Bonaparte / Beauharnais family, rule most of Europe:
  • her son as King of Italy
  • Murat (Marshall of France and former RHM to Nap) and Caroline (Napoleon's sister) in Naples
  • Napoleon's other two sisters, Elisa (and her common husband) and Pauline, each with a number of lesser titles (Duchesses of Tuscany and Gaustalla)
  • Louis and Hortense in Holland
  • Jerome in Westphalia, plus an assortment of other German marriages for Napoleon’s family
  • Joseph (possibly) remaining King of Spain
  • the Austrian Archduke likely to marry Joseph’s daughter (since no Archduchess marriage for Napoleon)
On top of this you have Bernadotte (another French Marshall) who is likely still invited to be regent and heir to Sweden, though in his case he's likely to be friendlier to Russia than to France (as he was OTL), in the interests of his new country.

Of course, none of this can last unless the new French government can reach some kind of peace with Britain. Fortunately, I think this is very much in the cards, for a number of reasons, but what it comes down to is that while Britain is likely to agree to negotiations at some point in 1810, France will need to be willing to make concessions. Fortunately, I think that an agreement based broadly on a kind of uti possidetis which recognizes French army dominance on the continent while the British Royal Navy's dominance of the sea, is acceptable to all parties at the point, or at least preferable to the risks of further prolonging the conflict. This will mean:
  • Iberia is split in some fashion (likely with Joseph remaining as King of the Peninsular Spain, while a demilitarized Portugal remains as a British ally)
  • the royal families of the Spanish Bourbons and Braganzas are relocated to the New World, with the Joseph forgoing all claim to Spanish America
  • Murat remains King of Naples on the southern part of the Italian peninsula, while the Neopolitan Bourbons retain their Kingdom in Sicily
  • other basics (France makes no more annexations, both parties resume trade, etc)
The result of this peace is the formalization of a new balance of power in Europe, dominated by three major players -- Britain France, and Russia.

Speaking of Russia, this would have major implications for them as well -- while the effects of averting the Invasion of the Grande Armee on Russian domestic policy alone is worth a discussion, we can, for the purposes of this thread, turn the focus on her war with the Turks (which started in 1806). The bottom line there being that, with a much freer hand the OTL, Russia stands a very good chance of wiping out Ottoman dominance of the Balkans far sooner than OTL, which would have further knockoff effects on the remaining Ottoman Empire as a whole.

But this is all fairly short term; how Europe develops throughout the 19th Century from then on is a conversation unto itself.


Any chances for an eventual French unification of the entire continent? The implications of Europe being ruled by one nation, which thus can colonize most of the world, if possible, would create the strongest nation in the history of the world period.
 
Er, no; French hegemony over the European continent is certainly possible, so long as you don’t count parts governed by or allied with Russia. But no, no full scale annexation of Europe.

Not even in a generation or so? The industrial capacity this French Empire has could potentially by the 1880's mean it could take down the British or Russians imo. Thoughts?
 
Not even in a generation or so? The industrial capacity this French Empire has could potentially by the 1880's mean it could take down the British or Russians imo. Thoughts?
It's not that they don't have the military capacity or it, but the cultural minorities would be far too big in the era of emergent nationalism. You would need a far stronger francophone influence through the republic of letters to mitigate it. And even then, I don't see the french assimilating the entire continent. Not in a hunderd years.
 
Not even in a generation or so? The industrial capacity this French Empire has could potentially by the 1880's mean it could take down the British or Russians imo. Thoughts?
Even if they better industrialized than both of their competitors TTL (which is no certainty), France would still likely lose out due to demographics alone, seeing far slower population growth than Britain or Russia. When you combine this with Russia being likely to have more successful liberalization and reform than OTL due to no French Invasion (again), time is really on Russia's side here more than France's.

Now as to the other great power, it might be possible to curb the dominance of the British Empire and its influence in the other continents, particularly the Western Hemisphere, but only with a series of alliances that would amount to far, far less than French hegemony.
 
It's not that they don't have the military capacity or it, but the cultural minorities would be far too big in the era of emergent nationalism. You would need a far stronger francophone influence through the republic of letters to mitigate it. And even then, I don't see the french assimilating the entire continent. Not in a hunderd years.


Not assimilation, just dominating it.
It’s not like Sofia will become a francophonic City.
 
Not even in a generation or so? The industrial capacity this French Empire has could potentially by the 1880's mean it could take down the British or Russians imo. Thoughts?

Britain would still have naval superioritity, and an empire spanning a good portion of the world, I don’t see the French ever taking it down, being able to rival and even confront the British, however, that’s entirely possible, assuming the empire becomes a strong colonial power. As for the continent, nationalism would be too strong by the 1880, hegemony can be forcefully imposed on Europe, and even on a weakened Russia, but annexation would never be accepted, French would get enmity and hostility from everybody, and the unrest within its borders would be unmanageable.
 
Not assimilation, just dominating it.
It’s not like Sofia will become a francophonic City.
I'm belgian so I know firsthand how fast francofication can go. And no, Sofia won't become french in a generation or two, but I can see the bourgeosie and cultural elite adopting french, which then spreads to the snobbish parts of the upper middle class and finally the local language starts to adopt french loanwords in their dialect (as Antwerpian did compared to Dutch). If you wanted to make career in europe, either the economic, military or scientific sphere, you would need to speak french. And such domination isnt easily broken, even if the common people want it.
 
If you wanted to make career in europe, either the economic, military or scientific sphere, you would need to speak french.

French could become the main Continental language in terms of cultural and political influence whereas English would spread around the rest of the globe. To choose to speak/learn one over the other could become a political stance in itself.
 
French could become the main Continental language in terms of cultural and political influence whereas English would spread around the rest of the globe. To choose to speak/learn one over the other could become a political stance in itself.

That’s pretty much how it was in OTL, political stance aside. All kings, nobles and educated middle class men in Europe spoke French, sometimes even better than their own native language.
 
That’s pretty much how it was in OTL, political stance aside. All kings, nobles and educated middle class men in Europe spoke French, sometimes even better than their own native language.

I know, I meant that the difference would be more quantitative than qualitative. This influence would be even stronger and more widespread than iOTL. Local cultures could become bastardised and... I wonder what kind of political reforms could be brought around within this simili-empire. If we get OTL 1848 still possibly happening, then how would it occur in that Europe?
 
So who succeeds him? Well, the third is dependent upon the first, while the second was to go to Eugene de Beauharnais (Empress Josephine's son by her first son, and adopted son to Napoleon). As to the all important Emperor of the French -- well, Joseph may technically be the de jure heir, he’s supposed to be busy as the France’s King of Spain, and not super popular besides, while Louis, who is next in line de jure is likewise busy as King of Holland but can put one of his sons on the French imperial throne. In this instance, Josephine would be regent, and is super popular with the military, French political leadership, etc. (Interesting OTL note -- within weeks of our PoD, Napoleon would tell his wife that he was divorcing her so as to marry an Austrian Archduchess; obviously, this is averted TTL.)

Emperor of the French would be the eldest son of Louis and Hortense (in the event that Napoléon and Josèphine don't have kids, with the Dowager Empress as regent), AFAIK. Joe and Lou Snr don't have poll positions so long as they have a foreign throne. This was the reason Joe refused the Italian crown OTL, but Napoléon made their appointments to the Neapolitan/Spanish/Dutch crowns dependent on them signing away rights to the imperial throne. The Dutch crown would go to Louis-Hortense's 2e son, IIRC
 
With the proposed PoD, France isn’t going to muck with Ireland in the short to medium term (if they’re attempting peace w/ Britain); Warsaw will hold off on calling itself Poland (to avoid antagonizing Russia); and Egypt will be even more EE facto independent from the Ottomans, with the latter shrinking faster than OTL, though likely not under French influence.

CONSOLIDATE:
How about Eugene Beauharnais? After all, Nappy adopted him, he was Archchancellor of State, Viceroy of Italy and in 1809 commander of the Army of Italy. Quite popular personally and aristocratic pedigree of his real father would not hurt as well.
@Kellan Sullivan Another thought -- supposing Josephine dies before Louis reaches an age of majority (say circa 1820 or so)? My impression is that the most likely person to succeed her as regent would be her son, and King of Italy, Eugene de Beauharnais; so @alexmilman might actually be right about him taking over as Emperor of the French someday.
 
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