What would be the effects of unified Europe under Napoleon? Just tbc I am referring to Napoleon I, not Napoleon III.
Here's one idea -- PoD is October 12, 1809, in the aftermath of the War of the Fifth Coalition, wherein Friedrich Stapps is successful in his assassination of Napoleon in Vienna, during the latter's observation of a military parade. So dies the Emperor of the French, the King of Italy, and the Protector of the Confederation of the Rhine.
So who succeeds him? Well, the third is dependent upon the first, while the second was to go to Eugene de Beauharnais (Empress Josephine's son by her first son, and adopted son to Napoleon). As to the all important Emperor of the French -- well, Joseph may technically be the de jure heir, he’s supposed to be busy as the France’s King of Spain, and not super popular besides, while Louis, who is next in line de jure is likewise busy as King of Holland but can put one of his sons on the French imperial throne. In this instance, Josephine would be regent, and is super popular with the military, French political leadership, etc. (Interesting OTL note -- within weeks of our PoD, Napoleon would tell his wife that he was divorcing her so as to marry an Austrian Archduchess; obviously, this is averted TTL.)
So we have a situation where Josephine is Regent to the French Emperor, while royal families made up of new men, most with ties to the Bonaparte / Beauharnais family, rule most of Europe:
On top of this you have Bernadotte (another French Marshall) who is likely still invited to be regent and heir to Sweden, though in his case he's likely to be friendlier to Russia than to France (as he was OTL), in the interests of his new country.
- her son as King of Italy
- Murat (Marshall of France and former RHM to Nap) and Caroline (Napoleon's sister) in Naples
- Napoleon's other two sisters, Elisa (and her common husband) and Pauline, each with a number of lesser titles (Duchesses of Tuscany and Gaustalla)
- Louis and Hortense in Holland
- Jerome in Westphalia, plus an assortment of other German marriages for Napoleon’s family
- Joseph (possibly) remaining King of Spain
- the Austrian Archduke likely to marry Joseph’s daughter (since no Archduchess marriage for Napoleon)
Of course, none of this can last unless the new French government can reach some kind of peace with Britain. Fortunately, I think this is very much in the cards, for a number of reasons, but what it comes down to is that while Britain is likely to agree to negotiations at some point in 1810, France will need to be willing to make concessions. Fortunately, I think that an agreement based broadly on a kind of uti possidetis which recognizes French army dominance on the continent while the British Royal Navy's dominance of the sea, is acceptable to all parties at the point, or at least preferable to the risks of further prolonging the conflict. This will mean:
The result of this peace is the formalization of a new balance of power in Europe, dominated by three major players -- Britain France, and Russia.
- Iberia is split in some fashion (likely with Joseph remaining as King of the Peninsular Spain, while a demilitarized Portugal remains as a British ally)
- the royal families of the Spanish Bourbons and Braganzas are relocated to the New World, with the Joseph forgoing all claim to Spanish America
- Murat remains King of Naples on the southern part of the Italian peninsula, while the Neopolitan Bourbons retain their Kingdom in Sicily
- other basics (France makes no more annexations, both parties resume trade, etc)
Speaking of Russia, this would have major implications for them as well -- while the effects of averting the Invasion of the Grande Armee on Russian domestic policy alone is worth a discussion, we can, for the purposes of this thread, turn the focus on her war with the Turks (which started in 1806). The bottom line there being that, with a much freer hand the OTL, Russia stands a very good chance of wiping out Ottoman dominance of the Balkans far sooner than OTL, which would have further knockoff effects on the remaining Ottoman Empire as a whole.
But this is all fairly short term; how Europe develops throughout the 19th Century from then on is a conversation unto itself.
Truth and Hope in Our Fatherland-
Err, sorry. It highly depends on how such a victory comes about, and which coalition he wins against.
Er, no; French hegemony over the European continent is certainly possible, so long as you don’t count parts governed by or allied with Russia. But no, no full scale annexation of Europe.Any chances for an eventual French unification of the entire continent?
Er, no; French hegemony over the European continent is certainly possible, so long as you don’t count parts governed by or allied with Russia. But no, no full scale annexation of Europe.
It's not that they don't have the military capacity or it, but the cultural minorities would be far too big in the era of emergent nationalism. You would need a far stronger francophone influence through the republic of letters to mitigate it. And even then, I don't see the french assimilating the entire continent. Not in a hunderd years.Not even in a generation or so? The industrial capacity this French Empire has could potentially by the 1880's mean it could take down the British or Russians imo. Thoughts?
Even if they better industrialized than both of their competitors TTL (which is no certainty), France would still likely lose out due to demographics alone, seeing far slower population growth than Britain or Russia. When you combine this with Russia being likely to have more successful liberalization and reform than OTL due to no French Invasion (again), time is really on Russia's side here more than France's.Not even in a generation or so? The industrial capacity this French Empire has could potentially by the 1880's mean it could take down the British or Russians imo. Thoughts?
It's not that they don't have the military capacity or it, but the cultural minorities would be far too big in the era of emergent nationalism. You would need a far stronger francophone influence through the republic of letters to mitigate it. And even then, I don't see the french assimilating the entire continent. Not in a hunderd years.
Even if they better industrialized than both of their competitors TTL (which is no certainty)
Not even in a generation or so? The industrial capacity this French Empire has could potentially by the 1880's mean it could take down the British or Russians imo. Thoughts?
I'm belgian so I know firsthand how fast francofication can go. And no, Sofia won't become french in a generation or two, but I can see the bourgeosie and cultural elite adopting french, which then spreads to the snobbish parts of the upper middle class and finally the local language starts to adopt french loanwords in their dialect (as Antwerpian did compared to Dutch). If you wanted to make career in europe, either the economic, military or scientific sphere, you would need to speak french. And such domination isnt easily broken, even if the common people want it.Not assimilation, just dominating it.
It’s not like Sofia will become a francophonic City.
France isn't going to be able to dominate nations that industrialize as well or better than it in the longer term; incidentally, this is very good news for the Kingdom of Holland.I was thinking of French + German + rest of majority of the continents industry.
If you wanted to make career in europe, either the economic, military or scientific sphere, you would need to speak french.
French could become the main Continental language in terms of cultural and political influence whereas English would spread around the rest of the globe. To choose to speak/learn one over the other could become a political stance in itself.
That’s pretty much how it was in OTL, political stance aside. All kings, nobles and educated middle class men in Europe spoke French, sometimes even better than their own native language.
So who succeeds him? Well, the third is dependent upon the first, while the second was to go to Eugene de Beauharnais (Empress Josephine's son by her first son, and adopted son to Napoleon). As to the all important Emperor of the French -- well, Joseph may technically be the de jure heir, he’s supposed to be busy as the France’s King of Spain, and not super popular besides, while Louis, who is next in line de jure is likewise busy as King of Holland but can put one of his sons on the French imperial throne. In this instance, Josephine would be regent, and is super popular with the military, French political leadership, etc. (Interesting OTL note -- within weeks of our PoD, Napoleon would tell his wife that he was divorcing her so as to marry an Austrian Archduchess; obviously, this is averted TTL.)
Here's one idea -- PoD is October 12, 1809, in the aftermath of the War of the Fifth Coalition, wherein Friedrich Stapps is successful in his assassination of Napoleon in Vienna, during the latter's observation of a military parade. So dies the Emperor of the French, the King of Italy, and the Protector of the Confederation of the Rhine.
With the proposed PoD, France isn’t going to muck with Ireland in the short to medium term (if they’re attempting peace w/ Britain); Warsaw will hold off on calling itself Poland (to avoid antagonizing Russia); and Egypt will be even more EE facto independent from the Ottomans, with the latter shrinking faster than OTL, though likely not under French influence.Great setup. How about Ireland, Egypt, and Poland?
@Kellan Sullivan Another thought -- supposing Josephine dies before Louis reaches an age of majority (say circa 1820 or so)? My impression is that the most likely person to succeed her as regent would be her son, and King of Italy, Eugene de Beauharnais; so @alexmilman might actually be right about him taking over as Emperor of the French someday.How about Eugene Beauharnais? After all, Nappy adopted him, he was Archchancellor of State, Viceroy of Italy and in 1809 commander of the Army of Italy. Quite popular personally and aristocratic pedigree of his real father would not hurt as well.