What would be the effects of an Independent Tonkin?

What if in the 1954 Geneva Conference, the region of Tonkin was kept separate from the rest of Vietnam as its own country? What might be the effects of such a county existing in the region?
 

Kaze

Banned
Hmm.. need to read up on this. I recall there were groups proposing this as late as 1974.

Hell, Ho Chi Minh was talking Vietnam independence as early as the Treaty of Versailles.
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But let us say that at least Tonkin is freed, Ho Chi Minh might run for being democratically-elected president of that country. Then once elected, he might think of liberating the rest of Vietnam.
 
Do you mean that North Vietnam consists of only Tonkin? Or do you mean there is some indpendent (Democratic?) Republic of Tonkin, with Ho Chich Minh controlling the parts of Annam north of the DMZ? The latter seems very unlikely, as there was no real Tonkinese identity and the most powerful force in the area was Ho's communists.
 
If you go for a separate Tonkin, it'd have to happen in a Union Indochinoise, which'd be dominated by Vietnam
 
Do you mean that North Vietnam consists of only Tonkin? Or do you mean there is some indpendent (Democratic?) Republic of Tonkin, with Ho Chich Minh controlling the parts of Annam north of the DMZ? The latter seems very unlikely, as there was no real Tonkinese identity and the most powerful force in the area was Ho's communists.

The "Tonkin" is roughly the northern region of Vietnam, NOT North Vietnam. An illustration would be like this

2000px-French_Indochina_subdivisions.svg.png

And no, there would be no such thing as "Tokin" or "Annam" being used as the official name of the newly independent country of the alternate-Vietnam. We hate and despise those names. Why? Because the French use the "tactics" of divide and conquer or divide and rule. They broke our country into three, and then applied different authority styles on each on. The worse part is that they regarded the then-Vietnamese as subhumans. Practically slaves, or "indenture servants" for more polite talks.

So, there is a very small chance that the name Tonkin would be used.

What if in the 1954 Geneva Conference, the region of Tonkin was kept separate from the rest of Vietnam as its own country? What might be the effects of such a county existing in the region?

The chance for "only" northern region of Vietnam gaining independence in 1954 Geneva Conference is slim. It should be noted that our (ie Vietnamese) original demand for the temporary divide line to be at 13th parallel (compared to the final 17th parallel). The French had been hit hard with Dien Bien Phu and Mang Yang Pass, they would not have the gut to suggest the "temporary division" of "Tonkin" vs the rest of Vietnam. Because, you know, sending a few sappers unit directly into the Governor Palace on all over three regions would be a nice way to convince the French not to do as you say.

Remember, for the 1954 Vietnamese, it was either independence for entire Vietnam (one denied 9 years earlier) - or else.

But to answer your question, you first need a serious PoD to make what you suggest happens.
 
What do you mean?
As @ComradeH pointed out, Tonkin was one of the three subdivisions of French Indochina. There was a plan to have all the subdivisions together in a Federation.
So you'd have Laos, Cambodge, Cochinchine, Annam and Tonkin. However, such a union would be dominated by the Vietnamese who are tied by history.
Now, that separation wasn't entirely artificial as Cochinchine had been a recent conquest from the N'Guyen at the time of French colonisation and Tonkin/Annam was a relatively common separation that dated from a few centuries (the Portuguese named it Tonkin after the old name for Hanoi if I remember correctly).
A Union Indochinoise would effectively be a Vietnamese federation with vassalised Laos/Cambodge.
 
Now, that separation wasn't entirely artificial as Cochinchine had been a recent conquest from the N'Guyen at the time of French colonisation and Tonkin/Annam was a relatively common separation that dated from a few centuries (the Portuguese named it Tonkin after the old name for Hanoi if I remember correctly).
A Union Indochinoise would effectively be a Vietnamese federation with vassalised Laos/Cambodge.

A bit of un-related information. I'm not sure about the name "Tonkin" being an old name for Hanoi - but it is likely that some old names in Vietnamese get "mis-pronounced" by the French, and when the Portuguese heard it, more deviations were made. And the part about "Union of Indochina" is sort of a running gag in Vietnamese society, something like "if we really pushed for it in early 20th century, our country would be three times as big now". A proposed name for it is "VCL" - which can either stand for Vietnam - Cambodia - Laos, or "holy fucking shit!" A wordplay in Vietnamese...

Still, I don't think the Cochinchina was a "late" conquest, at least, not for the French. They invaded and got controlled of this region (Mekong Delta area, today) first, then through a series of placate attitude from the then-Royal Dynasty (Nguyen Dynasty), the French was slowly but surely able to put Vietnam into their colony map. If I remember correctly, they also set up three different authority styles for three regions: protectorate for Tonkin, semi-colony for Annam (with a "theoretical" autonomy for the Royal), and (full) colony for Cochichina. Needless to say, it made a rift among our people, some traces of it can still be found today (but they are rather enhanced by the Vietnam War with the American "democracy", so... yeah...)

Anyway, back for Cochinchina, it is, by Vietnamese standard, the latest addition - finished by the mark of 19th century (ish). As usual, it was thanks to a series of fighting, intimidation, trading, marriage, and stuff like that. Of course, late or not, it is considered as a part of Vietnam now, and anyone has the bright idea to separate it or to annex it into another country (cueing a certain country to our southwest)... just say the result will not be pretty.
 
A bit of un-related information. I'm not sure about the name "Tonkin" being an old name for Hanoi - but it is likely that some old names in Vietnamese get "mis-pronounced" by the French, and when the Portuguese heard it, more deviations were made. And the part about "Union of Indochina" is sort of a running gag in Vietnamese society, something like "if we really pushed for it in early 20th century, our country would be three times as big now". A proposed name for it is "VCL" - which can either stand for Vietnam - Cambodia - Laos, or "holy fucking shit!" A wordplay in Vietnamese...

Still, I don't think the Cochinchina was a "late" conquest, at least, not for the French. They invaded and got controlled of this region (Mekong Delta area, today) first, then through a series of placate attitude from the then-Royal Dynasty (Nguyen Dynasty), the French was slowly but surely able to put Vietnam into their colony map. If I remember correctly, they also set up three different authority styles for three regions: protectorate for Tonkin, semi-colony for Annam (with a "theoretical" autonomy for the Royal), and (full) colony for Cochichina. Needless to say, it made a rift among our people, some traces of it can still be found today (but they are rather enhanced by the Vietnam War with the American "democracy", so... yeah...)

Anyway, back for Cochinchina, it is, by Vietnamese standard, the latest addition - finished by the mark of 19th century (ish). As usual, it was thanks to a series of fighting, intimidation, trading, marriage, and stuff like that. Of course, late or not, it is considered as a part of Vietnam now, and anyone has the bright idea to separate it or to annex it into another country (cueing a certain country to our southwest)... just say the result will not be pretty.
Yeah, not sure for Tonkin, didn't check my sources. I remember it's a deformation from Dong Quin or something similar

Cochinchina is interesting because I'm not sure how much it had been colonised by the Viet before the French arrived. Saigon was just a small village if I recall
 
Yeah, not sure for Tonkin, didn't check my sources. I remember it's a deformation from Dong Quin or something similar

Cochinchina is interesting because I'm not sure how much it had been colonised by the Viet before the French arrived. Saigon was just a small village if I recall

For reference, the name used for now-Hanoi in this era is "Dong Kinh" (ie, the City/Citadel in the East). I'm not sure about its naming in other languages though. During this era, the now-HCMC was called Gia Dinh, and it was the city of the region (I think). The main stay of the region was agriculture with various sayings about the fertility of the land and river.
 
For reference, the name used for now-Hanoi in this era is "Dong Kinh" (ie, the City/Citadel in the East). I'm not sure about its naming in other languages though. During this era, the now-HCMC was called Gia Dinh, and it was the city of the region (I think). The main stay of the region was agriculture with various sayings about the fertility of the land and river.
Tonkin was, as far as Europeans were concerned, the old name the region, dating back from the Portuguese. Dong Kinh would be easily deformed into Tonkin.

I heard conflicting info about Saigon's development. I heard it was developed by the French mostly, but there was already a fortress there so that's strange. My sources might be biased too
 
I heard conflicting info about Saigon's development. I heard it was developed by the French mostly, but there was already a fortress there so that's strange. My sources might be biased too

You are right on both count. There was a fortress in Sai Gon area (it was called Gia Dinh by then), and a few more. These systems were in place before 19th century (especially Gia Dinh, considered it belonged to the first Emperor of Nguyen Dynasty before his crowning in 1802). However, it was the French who literally transformed the city into a "tourist attraction" - not so sure if it was "center of enlightenment" though.
 
You are right on both count. There was a fortress in Sai Gon area (it was called Gia Dinh by then), and a few more. These systems were in place before 19th century (especially Gia Dinh, considered it belonged to the first Emperor of Nguyen Dynasty before his crowning in 1802). However, it was the French who literally transformed the city into a "tourist attraction" - not so sure if it was "center of enlightenment" though.
It was however a big center of the Opium trade. The official capital of Indochine Française wasn't in Saigon for long anyway, went to Hanoi after the Protectorate if I recall.
Colonisation is way less visible in Hanoi however I find, but probably because the city is much older and the French couldn't build most of it from scratch.

To go back to OP's, the French played their cards very very badly. There was a strong cadre of Vietnamese elite willing to work with the government for more autonomy, or barring that, an equal place in society. It is the eternal question of post-colonial history. What would have happened if France went all in for integration? You could see former Vietnamese mandarins becoming prefects of French regions or colonial administrators, as happened with the colonies of the First Empire.
It's different from the African colonies as there was that strong, highly educated base, used to working in a highly centralised state. Indeed, I'd say the State tradition in Vietnam is older than in France as France was still centralising in 1427 when Lé Loi came to power and did its confucian reforms.
By the 1920's, they'd write in westernised scripts and would be able to function in other parts of the French empire. I do wonder what would have happened then.

The big thing is also that Indochina was fairly irrelevant to France at that point anyway. China had been open and wasn't the opportunity it had been before and Indochina was far away, not giving much of value to the métropole. If the French hadn't been completely stubborn and breaking promises, you could very well see that "Indochine" federation with Vietnam ruling over the region. You'd have a technically independant Tonkin but the distinction would be very moot as they'd probably recognise the moral authority of the Emperor (unless it's Bao Dai, screw that guy)
 
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