What would be an ideally prepared Japanese Empire for WW2?

[Carl Schwamberger]

Really Japan can't do much better than it did in our timeline all it maybe could do is get us a bit more Lucky in battles besides that not much else axis Japan. Is pretty much doomed it just doesn't have the production capabilities of matching the United States British Empire and Soviet Union industrial and Manpower output all we can hope to do is get a bit more Lucky in the opening year of the Pacific War dragging out its demise a year

Japans Navy was pretty much at the top of its game in 1941-42. Doing better requires deep changes - PoD back in the 1930s or 1920s. If the US & Britain don't roll over & offer a armistice in the first 6-12 months its game over for Japan. The only remaining major strategic decision is how long you want to drag things out. Operationally the IJN & related Army forces were operating at a tempo that was wrecking their capability faster than it could be repaired & sustained. Improving the outcome of this or that battle, or all the battles for that matter is waived away by the US Building a Pacific Sea, Land, and Air force larger than its original of 1941, while strategic priority went to the European war effort. Overall the US expended about 20% of its total war effort in the Pacific & Asian regions to fight Japan. Circumstances made it both necessary and undesirable to expend much more

 

[33k7]

I think that is why so many are hinting 'The only way to win is not to play.'

Avoid getting dragged into a forever war in mainland China (puppet states and economic dominance would be the ticket in that direction)? Little support of outside embargoes and less need for raw materials to begin with. Problems solved.

ETA: Of course this is on the same level of 'cheating' as Germany stopping with the Sudetenland, if not the Anschluss, but it works.

They would have a better chance of maintaining and possibly taking more land siding with the allies if Japan somehow renews or keep some form of the Japanese British Alliance alive a Japanese allies member would be quite an internist doing scenario

 

[Gillan1220]

I think that is why so many are hinting 'The only way to win is not to play.'

Avoid getting dragged into a forever war in mainland China (puppet states and economic dominance would be the ticket in that direction)? Little support of outside embargoes and less need for raw materials to begin with. Problems solved.

ETA: Of course this is on the same level of 'cheating' as Germany stopping with the Sudetenland, if not the Anschluss, but it works.

Japan was a proto-Vietnam War on steroids. Japan also faced a proto-Vietnam War in the Dutch East Indies, Burma, and the Philippines,

 

[GarethC]

Let's save some money.

Siberia. Thousands dead and the best part of a billion yen blown for what, half of Sakhalin? Keep the Vladivostok intervention down to about 1/5 of its size - maybe 14,000 troops - and don't try to sustain a buffer state for Kolchak, Semenov, or Ungarn-Sternberg. Then you can have better relations with the Soviets anyway because trade makes money builds ships.

The Eight-Eight programme is waaaaay too ambitious. As a result of Jutland, let's press pause on battlecruiser construction and not authorise the first two Amagi class in 1916. Knowing there will be some build limitations coming up, so we'll start the design phase over again post-WNT in 1922 and not actually start building until... probably the tail-end of 1923.

In the interim, let's see how many merchant hulls (particularly tankers) we can churn out instead.

 

[marathag]

. I understand that the internal obstacle to developing an ASW capacity was the the IJN culture stressed offence and the Decisive Battle, and ASW was considered to be defensive and a waste of resources.

Long Lance for the win, who needs the effete SONAR and ahead throwing depth charges on your DDs?

 

[marathag]

It seems like better coordination with the European Axis is the best play.
-Coordinate with Germany on the invasion of the USSR.

Join Comintern, but no more than that. Don't join the Axis proper. Don't take advantage of Vichy in Vietnam.
Allies might be able to overlook Japan and Germany being Co-belligerents against the USSR.
And do not attack the British or USA.
Doing the above, you might be able to survive the WWII, if you give up on the attack on the USSR in later 1943, if the whole shack doesn't come crashing down in 1942, and go for Status Quo 1939, plus a few border adjustments at the Peace Talks.

 

[marathag]

In the interim, let's see how many merchant hulls (particularly tankers) we can churn out instead.

Use the Kanto Earthquake as an excuse to cut Naval building, and go for Merchant hulls instead.

 

[GarethC]

Use the Kanto Earthquake as an excuse to cut Naval building, and go for Merchant hulls instead.

Well, I was thinking that by holding off on starting Amagi and Akagi until the tail end of 1923, you could get a few more merchant hulls built in those slips 1920-23, and then (totally by conicidence) Amagi wouldn't have been started on Sept 1 when the quake hits so it wouldnt need scrapping.

Also you can argue that the Americans shouldn't get to keep the Lexingtons because you aren't going to do the Akagi CV conversion but can instead build it as a proper carrier at 27kton - sort of a Shokaku a decade early.

I'm not sure that actually benefits Japan in the long run though - scrapping the Lexingtons to build 5 stretched Yorktowns at 27kton means the ersatz Ranger and Wasp are more formidable.

 

[liomarcus]

i try this to build a HOI4 submod in a three way cold war

Basicaly : 4 important butterfly
Do not go to war into china ! Use you influence to create sort of Pro-Japanese KMT faction and help them keep fighting communist
DO NOT GO SOUTH until you r really ready
Use WW2 to build a massive economy instead of fighting
Do not ally with Nazi

 

[LeX]

Avoid the Kwantung Incident and just operate in Manchuria through the South Manchurian Railroad with nominal sovereignty of Nanjing over Manchuria instead of building a puppet state.

Chiang will probably leave the SMR to its own devices since he's probably going to busy fighting the commies and big headed regional warlords for the next decade or so, at least.

It's worth noting that by invading Manchuria outright, the Japanese army took a fairly significant risk. If the local army, or worse, the central Chinese government decided to resist, the IJA would essentially be facing a full on war that wasn't approved by Tokyo. 1931 levels of mobilization were nothing like they were later in the decade, and moreover, the inevitably higher losses could seriously damage the militarists' ability to just say "no worries, we got this" and ignore all internal dissent.

 

[wcv215]

Join Comintern, but no more than that. Don't join the Axis proper. Don't take advantage of Vichy in Vietnam.
Allies might be able to overlook Japan and Germany being Co-belligerents against the USSR.

Why? What do you get out of invading the USSR.

Do not go to war into china !

Cool. Would you like to commit suicide before or after your junior officers decide to invade anyway and then refuse to listen when you tell them to stop and they don’t listen? Perhaps you’d like to go for the spicy option snd commit suicide after being called a coward by your superiors and equals.

 

[jsb]

Develop a first rate anti-submarine warfare capacity. Japan did send a flotilla of destroyers to the Mediterranean in World War One to support the Entente. Then they gave up and ignored anti-submarine warfare for World War Two. I understand that the internal obstacle to developing an ASW capacity was the the IJN culture stressed offence and the Decisive Battle, and ASW was considered to be defensive and a waste of resources. A solution I have, again an end run around the IJN culture, would be to create another service like a Coast Guard, that was not prestigious, and would not be competing with the Combined Fleet. The ASW/CoastGuard fleet could be equipped with cast-off World War One destroyers. These destroyers could be modified like the Royal Navy Long Range escorts trading a few boilers for fuel tanks to extend their range, and reduce their top speed to 20 knots, which would allow them to fall outside of LNT/WNT limits on destroyer tonnage.

Long Lance for the win, who needs the effete SONAR and ahead throwing depth charges on your DDs?

You can't, going for ASW and long war is accepting defeat anyway as any reasonable look at US or GB will tell you that they will win anyway from WWI production numbers.

IJN had to win a short war and then agree to a peace deal, this could easily be known from RJW it's only the German early victory and French collapse that made it look like it might be possible to get involved, like Italy it got excited and should also have stayed out.

 

[marathag]

Why? What do you get out of invading the USSR.


Cool. Would you like to commit suicide before or after your junior officers decide to invade anyway and then refuse to listen

IJA junior officers kept busy in Siberia.
USSR is the medium term threat to Japanese operations in China, while US and UK are minor threat to those operations in China.
And there is no better time to attack the USSR than when the Nazis are attacking on the other end

 

[wcv215]

IJA junior officers kept busy in Siberia.

There’s a four year gap between the beginning of the Second Sino-Japanese War and Barbarosssa.

 

[Riain]

Given Japan's only hope is to get a political settlement in a short (ish) war they need a victorious campaign and to successfully defeat the initial counter-offensives.

In military terms they are pretty well equipped to do so, their initial victories illustrate that. I'd add a submarine offensive as far east as they could manage, the US west coast for the few subs that could reach that far, Hawaii and supply routes for everything else.

As for fighting the counter-offensive I'd suggest separating the carriers and the air groups so that carriers don't sit out battles because their CAG is denuded from a previous battle.

 

[EpicBoi]

And Japan gets WHAT out of attacking north? Other than being out of oil in six months. Attacking north is a terrible idea for Japan.

And it wouldn't do anything for the Eastern Front in Europe either as the German offensive failed against troops from Siberia, not the far East.

And the Germans couldn't take Moscow or reach the Caucuses in any event.

This.
In 1941, arguably the best time for Japan to attack North, even the leftover Far East divisions could've still resisted the Japanese. The Japanese were second-rate in land.

The Germans couldn't have taken Moscow, though they could've deceived the Russians into thinking they can reach Moscow.
For Caucasus... even if the Germans take most of it... it'll be a stalemate which the Germans would still lose eventually, even if it takes a decade.

 

[marathag]

For Caucasus... even if the Germans take most of it... it'll be a stalemate which the Germans would still lose eventually, even if it takes a decade.

While the Japanese would have gained that eastern territory at the Peace Table.
Japan attacks on the USSR wouldn't cause the USSR to surrender, but it puts the hurt on them, not getting LL thru Vladivostok.

Best case for Japan is the UK bribing them to sign that peace treaty with the USSR in 1942-1943, by promising raw materials and Oil, plus access to the London Financial network.

 

[Gillan1220]

While the Japanese would have gained that eastern territory at the Peace Table.
Japan attacks on the USSR wouldn't cause the USSR to surrender, but it puts the hurt on them, not getting LL thru Vladivostok.

Best case for Japan is the UK bribing them to sign that peace treaty with the USSR in 1942-1943, by promising raw materials and Oil, plus access to the London Financial network.

Could Japan extract the oil from Siberia? Of course the Japanese do not need to chase the Red Army in the deeper areas of the taiga/tundra. That would be a waste of resources.
Similar threads here:
WI: Japanese Solve 1930s Fuel Shortages By Using Synthetic Oil Production Via Manchurian Coal Fields by @GuildedAgeNostalgia

and

Japanese invasion of USSR, c. 1936-39 by @herlockscholmes

 

[marathag]

Could Japan extract the oil from Siberia? Of

In time, but exploration and development takes time and money.
Oil now, at a good price from the Allies, is good to have while the above is going on.

 

[Workable Goblin]

Outside option: Cut back on the IJA a lot after World War I. Like, reduce it to a U.S.-style skeleton force that's okay for being the bones of a mobilized army but not much else. After all, what they need in Korea and Taiwan is mostly police, and the Home Islands and Taiwan are going to be defended by the IJN, so...what good does a big IJA do, anyway? Costs a lot of money and runs the risk of getting the country into adventures it can't really afford (as per OTL). This makes the IJA in general and the Kwangtung Army (which probably does not even exist) in particular essentially incapable of adventurism, and thus probably keeps them out of Manchuria and China.

Of course, it's probably politically impossible to cut back on the IJA that much, but it would have been the sensible thing to do (well, maybe not that much, but they really didn't need a big strong IJA from any reasonable geopolitical point of view--it didn't add much to their defensive capability and didn't solve their fundamental weaknesses compared to their neighbors and other powers).