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Okay, I know that an Italian Tunisia is difficult to achieve, as in the mid 19th Century both France and Britain had interests there and both had interests in keeping Italian power checked in the Mediterranean (including the Straits of Sicily, between Sicily and Tunisia), but let's suppose the Italian delegates that attempt to sway the Tunisian bey succeed and Tunisia accepts Italian influence.

Over time, this results in the Italians finding a shaky casus belli and enforcing a protectorate or colony over the Tunisians with the French and British begrudgingly accepting (possible, at a pinch).

My first question is; would the Italians still covet Libya as a colony, or would they be more careful about it having just managed to usurp British and French interests in Tunisia, unwillingly to push their luck so to speak? What would this mean for the Ottomans if the Italians decided to just leave it? Might they instead accept the alternative proposal, which was Italian administration in a territory that was still part of the Ottoman Empire?

Similarly, what does this mean for the Balkan Wars? Assuming Italy doesn't attack Tripoli (which was an unpopular move in Italy anyway), and instead opts for a more peaceful route, would the Balkan states still attempt a seizure of Ottoman territory in Europe and the Aegean without Italy weakening the Ottoman state?

Finally, what does this mean for the Austrian annexation of Bosnia in 1908? The Italians felt a little put out, due to one clause or another in the Triple Alliance, but might they be in a stronger position in this case?

The last thing: Much and more of this might be butterflied away, but I'm of the opinion in this case that many of these events might still proceed in a similar fashion to OTL, as the groundwork was laid before Tunisia was annexed by anyone (with the Austro-Hungarians administering Bosnia as of 1878, and Tunisia not being annexed by anyone until 1881 OTL, probably similar timing in this ATL). It follows that Balkan nationalism would still exist.
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