What would an Italian Tunisia change in the 20th Century?

Okay, I know that an Italian Tunisia is difficult to achieve, as in the mid 19th Century both France and Britain had interests there and both had interests in keeping Italian power checked in the Mediterranean (including the Straits of Sicily, between Sicily and Tunisia), but let's suppose the Italian delegates that attempt to sway the Tunisian bey succeed and Tunisia accepts Italian influence.

Over time, this results in the Italians finding a shaky casus belli and enforcing a protectorate or colony over the Tunisians with the French and British begrudgingly accepting (possible, at a pinch).

My first question is; would the Italians still covet Libya as a colony, or would they be more careful about it having just managed to usurp British and French interests in Tunisia, unwillingly to push their luck so to speak? What would this mean for the Ottomans if the Italians decided to just leave it? Might they instead accept the alternative proposal, which was Italian administration in a territory that was still part of the Ottoman Empire?

Similarly, what does this mean for the Balkan Wars? Assuming Italy doesn't attack Tripoli (which was an unpopular move in Italy anyway), and instead opts for a more peaceful route, would the Balkan states still attempt a seizure of Ottoman territory in Europe and the Aegean without Italy weakening the Ottoman state?

Finally, what does this mean for the Austrian annexation of Bosnia in 1908? The Italians felt a little put out, due to one clause or another in the Triple Alliance, but might they be in a stronger position in this case?

The last thing: Much and more of this might be butterflied away, but I'm of the opinion in this case that many of these events might still proceed in a similar fashion to OTL, as the groundwork was laid before Tunisia was annexed by anyone (with the Austro-Hungarians administering Bosnia as of 1878, and Tunisia not being annexed by anyone until 1881 OTL, probably similar timing in this ATL). It follows that Balkan nationalism would still exist.
 

Now, the big change is that much of italian animosity and fear towards France has gone due to being (among others things) fueled by the 'Slap of Tunisi' and so there is the strong possibility that the francophobe politics of Crispi and Italy entering in an alliance with Germany and A-H will be butterflyied away and instead we can have a Franco-Italian pact

From an economic pow Italy doesn't lose the investment done in Tunisia till that moment and kept much of her interest there intact plus there is an outlet for her emigration, at least to some degree.

Tunisia success can prompt any italian goverment to pursue a more 'aggressive' colonial politcs as there were some attempt in South Asia (North Borneo and Papua-Guinea) and to entering in China.
 
I believe there was also Italian interest in Aceh before it succumbed to the Dutch that were already in the region. It was one of the last areas of the East Indies to be taken over, after all. The butterflies of an Italian Tunisia are very interesting, and farther reaching than I initially assumed. :)
 
Yes without the Tunisia Slap France would ally with France because of Trentino and Istria. This would cause Bismark to work far harder for the Three Emperor's Alliance. However the problem is Austria lost in the north they aren't losing in the south and Russia isn't going to budge. So the alliance will still fall apart. We could see a earlier world war. Germany would go for an Ottoman alliance earlier. So maybe we could see a war with the Balkan League+France+Italy+Russia vs Germany+Ottomans+Austrians+Bulgaria. This war Britain would want to stay out, but if Germany invades through Belgium Britain might get concerned that a German victory would be worse for them because what if Germany annexes the Lowlands (very bad for Britain).

So lets call the French, British, Russsian side the FRA and the German-Austrian camp the GAC

The GAC would lose in the Balkans
Stalemate in Trentino
Stalemate in France
GAC victory or stalemate in Russia
FRA victory in Ottoman Asia.

The peace treaty would see the Greeks gaining Constantinople and maybe Nikaea

Bulgaria would be cut in half with Romania and Serbia and Greece all taking their claims

Italy might get Trentino or Istria depending on how bad the German loss at the end is

Ottoman Asia would become a bunch of Mandates

Russia could still have the revolution or not, anyway I don't see them gaining Galicia

If Russian revolution then Poland is created in whole if not then Poland is smaller and only GAC land

France might gain Alsace-Lorraine

Depending on how the loss happens what happens in Austria-Hungary and Germany might vary
 
Top