What would a World in a Central Powers Victory look like on the long run?

In a world where the Central Powers were victorious and also get most of their claims and goals in a Versailles-like peace, how long could they stay dominant in Europe or other parts of the world? How long would Austria stay united, how long would their Colonies last? Would it just delay the fall of the Kaiser and the Austrian Emperor and their Monarchies or could it stabilize them enough to let them last (or something in between like the British Monarchy)?
 
There wouldn't be WW2 when France and Russia would be unable take revenge and Germany as dominant power wouldn't allow that. This would mean higher population in Central and Eastern Europe. But there is probably cold war like situation between France and Russia. Fate of Italy depends what side it took on Great War. If neutral, it would avoid rise of fascism and might keep close relationships with German-led alliance. Same if it would be on Central Powers. But if it would side with Entente, Italy might has bit worse situation depending how harsh terms CPs give.

Situation with Austro-Hungary depends how long war would last. But A-H hardly would survive. Dissolution of the empire is pretty unavoidable. Austria might be annexed by Germany or then it would remain as independent state but strongly dependent from Germany. Ottoman Empire might survive but much would depend how long war would last and how succedsful Brits are.

Without WW2 decolonisation would happen bit later than in OTL but it is unavoidable.
 
There's too many possible outcomes, just like there were a lot of different ways that the world could have taken after our WWI. It could be anything from a social democratic utopia to a nuclear wasteland. Probably something between those two extremes, of course.
 

samcster94

Banned
There wouldn't be WW2 when France and Russia would be unable take revenge and Germany as dominant power wouldn't allow that. This would mean higher population in Central and Eastern Europe. But there is probably cold war like situation between France and Russia. Fate of Italy depends what side it took on Great War. If neutral, it would avoid rise of fascism and might keep close relationships with German-led alliance. Same if it would be on Central Powers. But if it would side with Entente, Italy might has bit worse situation depending how harsh terms CPs give.

Situation with Austro-Hungary depends how long war would last. But A-H hardly would survive. Dissolution of the empire is pretty unavoidable. Austria might be annexed by Germany or then it would remain as independent state but strongly dependent from Germany. Ottoman Empire might survive but much would depend how long war would last and how succedsful Brits are.

Without WW2 decolonisation would happen bit later than in OTL but it is unavoidable.
I am almost certain at least two nations would have nuclear weapons.
The U.S. being less involved in Europe is likely given a typical CP victory does not have U.S. intervention.
What happens to Russia is more interesting, and communism is possible esp. if it is a late CP victory.
Austria-Hungary is going to fall, possibly violently.
The Ottoman Empire may last(esp. an early CP victory),which butterflies most modern ME issues(Sykes Picot, divided Kurdistan, a hardline Wahabbi theocracy ruling Mecca and Medina etc ...), but the ME won't be a paradise.
I agree on Italy, they were a wildcard.
Decolonization is almost inevitable, even without a Hitler or Holocaust; albeit would be later.
WWII analogs are possible but that depends on the type of German victory.
Japan was already imperialistic(but not to the extent it'd be in 20 years), so the stuff it did in China is likely in TTL(even if later).
Ireland's fate is unclear much like in OTL.
 
Having discussed this at other times I will say that it is a wide open field, but I endeavor to see how I can keep from straying too far from our familiar timeline and steer into a future possible from the history. I do not see the CP achieving a hard victory with the Entente vanquished, thus I do not see Germany pursuing any of the "harsh" terms some imagine and arising from the propaganda or loose talk, instead I see the CP achieving something more akin to a cold peace.

That said I think the Germans pursue economic hegemony in Europe and attempt to create a cordon in the East but I feel they are too exhausted to make much stick. I think Germany retreats from French territory and that is likely what Germany offers to get peace in the West with France accepting it, a humiliation akin to being defeated really, so Franco-German relations likely stay soured until at least the 1930s maybe even into the 1950s. At least a generation must pass away. I think Britain and Germany can reach a mutual relationship sooner, at least by the end of the 1930s. I think Japan and Germany are on a collision course over the Pacific territories and in China. It is possible that the USA and Britain never develop the "Special Relationship" and in fact war debts and other friction will cool relations, if Asia simmers over to a boil I think the USA stays aloof from the colonial powers and Germany might be with them on that agenda to break up the Empires. As much as I think Germany wants to kill the Communist state in its adolescence I do not see that occurring. Thus it is possible that a cold war evolves between the CP and the USSR. I think the East remains unsettled and full of friction, likely insurgency supported by the USSR with authoritarian regimes supported by Germany with tacit British applause, similar to how the USA and USSR vied. Decolonialization occurs over a longer drawn out process, seeing the British and French behaving more like Portugal in staying on in the colonies until it just gets too untenable but more territory might remain under more influence.

We might see a second war in Europe between Germany and the USSR, likely France leans to the USSR, likely sparked off by some change of government upsetting the power balance in either Poland or Ukraine. We likely see a Japanese resource grab, likely in China, but I do not see a bigger war in Asia, I think Japan stays a middle power and supports the "independence" movements all over British and French holdings akin to how the PRC and USSR did. I tend to think the ROC survives. And I do not believe that A-H simply collapses. At most the A-H Empire splits and that likely happens latter when economics puts the final straw on the back weakened by the political divide. I do not assume Austria simply merges with Germany but I think it would jump inside the German Customs Union and that will be a precursor to European "unity". But here France acts a bit more like the UK and holds out, trying to join but not be bound, I think it offers a lot of oddity to European relations. Perhaps we see more regional cobbles like a Benelux trade union or a Scandinavian one or a Baltic states one.

I think Italy still goes Fascist but it lasts longer and gets in similar trouble as it pushes against the British in Africa. I could see an Anglo-Italian War in the late 1930s or early 1940s. I do not see a Spanish Civil War unless Germany and France use it as a proxy battleground. I think the Ottoman Empire survives and at most loses some pieces to Britain, but maybe not if Germany has foresight. Long term I think the Ottomans will try to get secular and multi-cultural, long term I tend to think it either works really well of the thing explodes. Thus the middle east and Islam look very different, no state of Israel, the Ottomans get a huge boost as they control a vast oil empire, that may be what sinks them. The Balkans might remain a mess but Bulgaria might do better as the frontline for German efforts to keep peace there.

I would offer that a USA never involving itself in the real fighting in the World War will be a far less militarized and interventionist state, it will be a huge player economically but its foreign policy will be more akin to seeing United Fruit gets to be top banana rather than acting as world's policeman. The British will keep at the global hegemony game longer but I think it falls to pieces as the 1950s dawn. I am not convinced the UK will support a Commonwealth that is protectionist so I think that is how the Empire dies, the pieces build trade relations and thus political ties to other "centers", likely the USA, Japan and Germany who are the big international industrial players. The Entente might birth a United Nations if the USA gets behind it, but it will be a looser "league of peace" rather than a global peacekeeper.

Germany remains a world leader in science and industry, likely a leader in "defense" technologies, it is in the top three of aerospace with the USA leading and Britain competitive but trailing. I think the Germans develop the Atomic bomb first, quite possibly as a spin off from medical or energy research. France and the UK are the next most likely innovators there with the USA playing catch up but having more money to take the lead once they get on board, similar to how the USA aspired to be and got to be a great naval power post World War.

Long term I think the world is more dominated by trade and shifting alliances, it has a long running brush fire war backdrop, Africa is just as war torn but the pieces that avoid it do better. Asia will see more European influences lasting, longer wars for independence and less potential to become "Tigers." China will become the regional hegemon and become a global power. Latin America might do better with less ideological warfare between USA and USSR but that paradigm shifts to the middle east and eastern Europe, Asia and Africa still get it. I see the USA and Germany developing strong trade links with Germany being a bigger player in global markets, Japan might stagnate and wither since it might never reform itself or get past imperial ambitions, its wealth gets devoted to vying with China and the USSR, it becomes an armed regime beset by enemies, that holds potential for a hot war in Asia, maybe on the Korean peninsula for irony.

Overall I see the world staying more like its pre-war roots in many ways but diverging greatly in odd ways. The SDP might become the powerhouse in German politics like the CDU did, thus Germany might be more politically and socially left leaning overall. Austria might be the "conservative" bastion with Bavaria sort of in the middle, Prussia might be rather Bohemian in contrast to its reputation as a conservative and militaristic state. A lot of shifts from what we assume to be normal perhaps.
 
Depending on when you're looking at I have some ideas.

In OTL the war destroyed the German monarchy, but ITTL the German Kaiser remains a predominate figure throughout the 20th century. His power would start to weaken over-time as more democratic or socialist forces in Germany gain power, as time goes on, it would be likely that the monarch turns into a simple figure-head. The quick victory in the war means that the territorial changes would honestly be pretty small. For the west, having Belgium be listed as a German puppet state is possibly but I personally can’t say how likely such a demand would be. When peace talks were being discussed at the tail end of 1916, the Germans essentially demanded this, but it would be un-certain if that would occur in TTL. The small nation of Luxembourg may very well be annexed as well as some adjustments along the French border, primarily in the area of Longwy-Brier or the whole Lorraine province. This region was rich in coal, limestone and iron, producing close to 80% of Frances pre-war Iron Ore and having a large amount of varied resources within a rather compact area. With this land, Germany would not only cripple Frances iron production, but also produce nearly half of all Iron ore in Europe.

Many may look at the Treaty of Brest Litovsk as what German territorial ambitions would be in the east. However, this thought is almost certainly incorrect. When the treaty was presented, the Central Powers were on the brink of starvation, exhaustion and bankruptcy and wanted to make sure that Russia could not be a threat to them in the near future. The land taken was not only to cripple Russian population and industry, but also to get grain, meat, and other food products to prevent starvation both at home and on the front lines. The more realistic ambitions in the east would likely only consist of ceding Russian Poland, and Lithuania to the Germans.

The Austro-Hungarian empire split apart into four separate nations towards the end of 1918, but even if the Empire comes out of this alternate war relatively un-scathed, it will still be near collapse. It had been in decline for over a century and ethnic tension was about to its breaking point. The main Austrian army had all but been destroyed during the Russian counter-offensive into Galicia at the end of 1914, and various minorities (primarily Slavs) within the Austrian army actually joined the invading Russians. Other’s like the Czechs were reluctant to fight away from their cultural homeland as they did not have equal rights through-out the empire. Land gains for the Austrians would be limited to putting Serbia as a client state under their control, if a Polish puppet state is created by the Germans, it is possible that the Polish strip of the empire would join that state. The death of emperor Franz Joseph in 1916 removed one of the few factors that held the empire together. While the new Emperor could attempt to improve the political conditions of the minority, he would be faced with constant back-lash from the larger ethic groups such as the Germans and Hungarians, that didn’t want to lose any political control within the Empire.

The Ottoman Empire would likely survive for a few decades after this war. Nationalism within the rest of the empire, had mainly sparked during the late 19th century, and while many cultural /nationalist groups were still active by WW1, many demanded autonomy, rather than outright independence. The Arab Revolt that occurred in OTL wouldn’t occur, it got a large amount of funding from the British and French, as well as some military support, it is possible to have them still fund these nomads for their own interests in the area (primarily the British) but they simply don’t have the military might to achieve OTL success, remember, the Ottomans were fighting on five fronts for a long period of the war. How long will they last after this war? Who knows, they could survive until the modern day and beyond, or more likely be destroyed as time went on in this alternate time-line.

How would Russia and France be after this war? It is difficult to predict. The Russian Revolution that occurred IOTL, likely wouldn’t occur, however, a revolution of some kind is almost certain to happen. A defeat would shatter what mass confidence people had for the Tsars government, and a revolution had already occurred in 1905. As to whether or not this revolution would mirror the 1905 one is uncertain. It may very well be a repeat, with the Tsar quote in quote, giving more power to a national assembly, one which he never used. Or he may well be over-thrown. It’s impossible to know. The dominate forces behind the revolution would not be communist in nature. The Petrograd Soviet and communist forces in general, didn’t have much power until over a year later IOTL.

France may very well experience of a revolution of her own, but we simply don’t know for certain. A large amount of the far-right had been opposed to the war at the start, while many of the far-left, socialists and proto-fascists had supported the government’s decision for war. While this might cause support for the united left to fall, it’s uncertain if this would cause the Raymond Poincaré government to fall. If a revolution does occur, the communists wouldn’t even be a factor. The French communist party wasn’t even established until the split of the popular front in 1920, following the Communist International founded by Lenin in 1919.
 
I don't think the Kaiser would 'fall' but political reform is a certainty, the first thing would be reform of the 3 class Prussian franchise system since you can't deny the vote to millions of young men who have just fought for the nation. Once franchise is expanded political change will follow, but its hard to predict how that will play because despite the predictions of more socialism or social democracy perhaps millions of ex soldiers might be centrist or conservative.

In the wider world Germany and MittelEuropa would be a superpower, pretty much secure in military terms and would spend its diplomatic efforts ensuring no big coalitions would rise against her or move forces into smaller countries closer to Germany.
 
I don't think the Kaiser would 'fall' but political reform is a certainty, the first thing would be reform of the 3 class Prussian franchise system since you can't deny the vote to millions of young men who have just fought for the nation. Once franchise is expanded political change will follow, but its hard to predict how that will play because despite the predictions of more socialism or social democracy perhaps millions of ex soldiers might be centrist or conservative.

Iirc the Weimar Republic never had a Socialist Chancellor after 1919.

Prussia had a Social Democrat government until 1932, but this might just have resulted in a change to the Constitution reducing the powers of the States, so as to ensure that it couldn't do too much.
 
Actually, there was an spd chancellor until 1920 and then again in 1928. However, the reason that the chancellor was almost always from the Zentrum was due to the multi-party government coalitions in the Weimarer Republik (Zentrum chancellors were compromise candidates) and does not reflect the seat distribution in the Reichstag during that time.
 

Perkeo

Banned
Iirc the Weimar Republic never had a Socialist Chancellor after 1919.
Of the 15 chancellors before Hitler,
5 were Social Democrat: Friedrich Ebert, Philipp Scheidemann, Gustav Bauer, Hermann Müller (twice)
5 Conservative: Constantin Fehrenbach, Joseph Wirth, Wilhelm Marx(twice), Heinrich Brüning
1 Liberal: Gustav Stresemann
4 independent: Wilhelm Cuno, Hans Luther, Franz von Papen, Kurt von Schleicher
 
The present state of the world wasn't pre-determined when Germany threw the towel in OTL.
Assuming the war ends earlier than OTL and with no US intervention, which both are kinda prequisites for a CP victory we are talking about a lot of people who died in the later years and from the Spanish Flu surviving on all sides of the conflict. Any of them might have turned out another Hitler - or the kind of pro-Democracy political and economic genius required to stop extremists. Some things that were invented might not be with an absent or different WW2. Others might have happened a lot earlier due to the right kind of future inventor not dying.

I think a lot will depend on wheter the Entente throws the towel early enough to not bankrupt Europe as a whole regardless of the winner. Because that might handwave away an analogue to OTLs Depression. If one happens, it's almost inevatable that political extremism rises significantly almost everywhere (excluding perhaps Germany where the establishment still has the prestige of winning the Great War), which means in some countries the dice will roll just the right/wrong way to have them seize power.
 
I think how did they win and when is going to have a major impact on how countries do. For example an Italy that stays neutral will likely improve Austrian fortunes and at the same time Italy itself would avoid the costs of both fighting a war and being on the losing side at the peace table.
 
Having discussed this at other times I will say that it is a wide open field, but I endeavor to see how I can keep from straying too far from our familiar timeline and steer into a future possible from the history. I do not see the CP achieving a hard victory with the Entente vanquished, thus I do not see Germany pursuing any of the "harsh" terms some imagine and arising from the propaganda or loose talk, instead I see the CP achieving something more akin to a cold peace.

That said I think the Germans pursue economic hegemony in Europe and attempt to create a cordon in the East but I feel they are too exhausted to make much stick. I think Germany retreats from French territory and that is likely what Germany offers to get peace in the West with France accepting it, a humiliation akin to being defeated really, so Franco-German relations likely stay soured until at least the 1930s maybe even into the 1950s. At least a generation must pass away. I think Britain and Germany can reach a mutual relationship sooner, at least by the end of the 1930s. I think Japan and Germany are on a collision course over the Pacific territories and in China. It is possible that the USA and Britain never develop the "Special Relationship" and in fact war debts and other friction will cool relations, if Asia simmers over to a boil I think the USA stays aloof from the colonial powers and Germany might be with them on that agenda to break up the Empires. As much as I think Germany wants to kill the Communist state in its adolescence I do not see that occurring. Thus it is possible that a cold war evolves between the CP and the USSR. I think the East remains unsettled and full of friction, likely insurgency supported by the USSR with authoritarian regimes supported by Germany with tacit British applause, similar to how the USA and USSR vied. Decolonialization occurs over a longer drawn out process, seeing the British and French behaving more like Portugal in staying on in the colonies until it just gets too untenable but more territory might remain under more influence.

We might see a second war in Europe between Germany and the USSR, likely France leans to the USSR, likely sparked off by some change of government upsetting the power balance in either Poland or Ukraine. We likely see a Japanese resource grab, likely in China, but I do not see a bigger war in Asia, I think Japan stays a middle power and supports the "independence" movements all over British and French holdings akin to how the PRC and USSR did. I tend to think the ROC survives. And I do not believe that A-H simply collapses. At most the A-H Empire splits and that likely happens latter when economics puts the final straw on the back weakened by the political divide. I do not assume Austria simply merges with Germany but I think it would jump inside the German Customs Union and that will be a precursor to European "unity". But here France acts a bit more like the UK and holds out, trying to join but not be bound, I think it offers a lot of oddity to European relations. Perhaps we see more regional cobbles like a Benelux trade union or a Scandinavian one or a Baltic states one.

I think Italy still goes Fascist but it lasts longer and gets in similar trouble as it pushes against the British in Africa. I could see an Anglo-Italian War in the late 1930s or early 1940s. I do not see a Spanish Civil War unless Germany and France use it as a proxy battleground. I think the Ottoman Empire survives and at most loses some pieces to Britain, but maybe not if Germany has foresight. Long term I think the Ottomans will try to get secular and multi-cultural, long term I tend to think it either works really well of the thing explodes. Thus the middle east and Islam look very different, no state of Israel, the Ottomans get a huge boost as they control a vast oil empire, that may be what sinks them. The Balkans might remain a mess but Bulgaria might do better as the frontline for German efforts to keep peace there.

I would offer that a USA never involving itself in the real fighting in the World War will be a far less militarized and interventionist state, it will be a huge player economically but its foreign policy will be more akin to seeing United Fruit gets to be top banana rather than acting as world's policeman. The British will keep at the global hegemony game longer but I think it falls to pieces as the 1950s dawn. I am not convinced the UK will support a Commonwealth that is protectionist so I think that is how the Empire dies, the pieces build trade relations and thus political ties to other "centers", likely the USA, Japan and Germany who are the big international industrial players. The Entente might birth a United Nations if the USA gets behind it, but it will be a looser "league of peace" rather than a global peacekeeper.

Germany remains a world leader in science and industry, likely a leader in "defense" technologies, it is in the top three of aerospace with the USA leading and Britain competitive but trailing. I think the Germans develop the Atomic bomb first, quite possibly as a spin off from medical or energy research. France and the UK are the next most likely innovators there with the USA playing catch up but having more money to take the lead once they get on board, similar to how the USA aspired to be and got to be a great naval power post World War.

Long term I think the world is more dominated by trade and shifting alliances, it has a long running brush fire war backdrop, Africa is just as war torn but the pieces that avoid it do better. Asia will see more European influences lasting, longer wars for independence and less potential to become "Tigers." China will become the regional hegemon and become a global power. Latin America might do better with less ideological warfare between USA and USSR but that paradigm shifts to the middle east and eastern Europe, Asia and Africa still get it. I see the USA and Germany developing strong trade links with Germany being a bigger player in global markets, Japan might stagnate and wither since it might never reform itself or get past imperial ambitions, its wealth gets devoted to vying with China and the USSR, it becomes an armed regime beset by enemies, that holds potential for a hot war in Asia, maybe on the Korean peninsula for irony.

Overall I see the world staying more like its pre-war roots in many ways but diverging greatly in odd ways. The SDP might become the powerhouse in German politics like the CDU did, thus Germany might be more politically and socially left leaning overall. Austria might be the "conservative" bastion with Bavaria sort of in the middle, Prussia might be rather Bohemian in contrast to its reputation as a conservative and militaristic state. A lot of shifts from what we assume to be normal perhaps.
I like it. It's quite similar, in broad strokes, to the background of my EDC universe though I had Franco-German relations thawing in the 1930s (in the face of the rise of Fascism) and a WW2 analog against a rather nutty Russia in the 1940s.
Of course I had the UK go Fascist and Republican, ending up as a DPRK analogue until the Revolution. But that was plot necessary...
 
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