What would a white-majority South Africa interact with it's natives in the modern era?

[Purrangzeb]

Lets say that through either deportations in the early 1900s or something far more gruesome, South Africa establishes a white minority centered around Anglos. The Afrikaners have to be a minority to ensure that they don't just bar immigration to maintain their own strength.
What would South Africa look like, and what position would it have in the continent?
Personally, I think Australia would be an adept example. Like the 5 other Big Anglophone nations, the notion that that they came about through expulsion & genocide would probably be minimalized in their culture.

 

[LampLighters]

Is this South Africa the same size as OTL South Africa?

 

[Father Maryland]

You'd need a ton of immigration. Maybe aforementioned atrocities plus a Anglo centric government willing to heavily subsidize European immigration including from non Anglo countries. Maybe have another Gold Rush in the 30s involve large scale immigration for the Rush combined with Post WW2 massive immigration from Europe. Perhaps pre WW2 have the British empire decide to focus White Settlement in South Africa minimizing the efforts to settle Rhodesia and the Kenyan Highlands.

Perhaps earlier efforts for " Bantustans" of nominally independent protectorate in black majority areas ( including forced migration/ ethnic cleansing of black locals into said Bantustans. Say a Zulu Kingdom and a few others ( think something like the " Princely states" in the Raj). Perhaps even a Boer equivalent of a Bantustan where Boers are forcefully ejected from the more valuable lands into a " Boer Republic". Later on encourage White European settlers in recently independent African nations to immigrate to South Africa. Say former Portuguese settlers in Angola. Maybe even have the Germans pre WW1 more heavily settle Namibia ( and have their Genocides their be more widespread leaving much fewer black locals) and South Africa annexing Namibia post WW1.

It'd be difficult and involve a lot more atrocities but it'd be interesting to see just what formed without Lazily just making them the Drakans on a smaller scale.

 

[Pelranius]

Is this South Africa the same size as OTL South Africa?

Not even close, to get to the OP's reqs without collapsing the British Empire through the costs necessary to implement Generalplan Ost: the African edition, translated into English.

The cost of moving tens of millions of Europeans alone is going to bankrupt London (since you're going to have to heavily subsidize them for many decades), and if you want them to be centered around Anglo culture, you're going to have to move millions of British, which is going to be an economic disaster for the British Isles.

 

[Yankeewolf]

You definitely need a pod before 1900 to the point where South Africa was actually discovered. It should be noted that the Cape was basically treated as a stopping station by the Dutch East India Company and nothing more beyond that. Prioritizing settlement was on the bottom of a very long list for them. Changing this attitude, whether it be that France discovered the Cape first and sent its Huguenot's there for expulsion or whatnot, is key. You could have a sea change in British policy regarding the famine with them trying to encourage white settlement in south africa by subsidizing emigration there. But these are all effectively "shooting the shit" type of ideas.

Just for comparison America in 1776 had roughly 2.5 million colonists roughly 2.1 or so million who were white.
South Africa by contrast in 1805 had around 26,000 white colonists.

 

[Purrangzeb]

Not even close, to get to the OP's reqs without collapsing the British Empire through the costs necessary to implement Generalplan Ost: the African edition, translated into English.

The cost of moving tens of millions of Europeans alone is going to bankrupt London (since you're going to have to heavily subsidize them for many decades), and if you want them to be centered around Anglo culture, you're going to have to move millions of British, which is going to be an economic disaster for the British Isles.

It wouldn't have to be centered around Anglo Culture, just majority English-Speaking with the most influential and wealthy people in society being Anglo-South Africans.

 

[Vabasion]

South Africa, Rhodesia and others were heavily against immigration if not from Anglo people or Dutch. It’s what crippled them long term. It was a prosperous country on level of US, Australia and others that would doubtlessly be able to attract millions of immigrants if they removed requirements and limited it to whites only. Especially if they do that for Eastern Europe.

Culture would be fundamentally changed.

 

[Father Maryland]

South Africa, Rhodesia and others were heavily against immigration if not from Anglo people or Dutch. It’s what crippled them long term. It was a prosperous country on level of US, Australia and others that would doubtlessly be able to attract millions of immigrants if they removed requirements and limited it to whites only. Especially if they do that for Eastern Europe.

Culture would be fundamentally changed.

And Rhodesia and South African didn't like each other much because Rhodesia was Anglo Dominated and South Africa was Afrikaaner dominated.

For South Africa part of the reason they limited immigration is that unlike say Anglos/Brits/other European nations there wasn't any way to get culture Afrikaaners to immigrate because there weren't any any where else. Hence any Immigration of Whites limited their power.

 

[Sardar]

Only way to do this is probably with a pre-1900 POD like others have said without going into ASB territory. I think the best bet would be for France to officially make the Cape a dumping ground for the Huguenots, which means that at least around 500,000 people are sent to the Cape sometime in the late 16th or early 17th century (also, we would probably get a South African nobility due to many Huguenots being nobles themselves, so that's always cool). I thought this timeline was pretty good at exploring that scenario.

And if the Huguenots have somewhere definitive to go where they can legally practice their religion that is also French-Speaking, then it would probably attract immigration from the 13 colonies and other European states. And somewhere between 500,000 to 1,000,000 French protestants in the early 17th century is a HUGE population to start with, especially because of the higher than average birth rates. By sheer numbers alone they would probably dominate the Cape and what would become Natal and the Free state. That is of course not even counting immigration from other countries. Simply by the fact that the Cape is so out of the way, very Protestant, and would be largely left to its own devices would make it an attractive place for settlement. If we get the British to control it in the 18th century, then it is likely that we get at least a few loyalists to settle in the Cape. It may or may not become English-speaking, but when self-government is granted (probably much earlier than OTL) we'd probably see something like the Cape Liberal tradition take hold across much of the country, without the fear of Black African domination. Of course the Zulus and Xhosa could have a much tougher time ITL, being swamped by so many whites that they either accede to be incorporated into South Africa or migrate further North, which would have quite a few interesting effects on native African tribes. And if what is OTL Free State and Transvaal is not already majority or plurality white by the mid-19th century, the gold and diamond rushes will probably make it so. This would make South Africa Britain's most important settler colony by a large margin, and would further siphon away immigration from Australia, New Zealand and Canada.

As for post-1900 effects, having a different colonizer for South Africa might not create too many butterflies simply because the Cape is just so far removed from everything else in Europe, but who knows. For sure we'd have a much more liberal South Africa than OTL.

 

[Pelranius]

South Africa, Rhodesia and others were heavily against immigration if not from Anglo people or Dutch. It’s what crippled them long term. It was a prosperous country on level of US, Australia and others that would doubtlessly be able to attract millions of immigrants if they removed requirements and limited it to whites only. Especially if they do that for Eastern Europe.

Culture would be fundamentally changed.

They'd still struggle to get millions of European immigrants (since there are already a lot of natives who would work for cheaper than an European immigrant would be willing to accept, especially if said immigrant had a bunch of other alternative destinations).

 

[Masked Grizzly]

Only way to do this is probably with a pre-1900 POD like others have said without going into ASB territory. I think the best bet would be for France to officially make the Cape a dumping ground for the Huguenots, which means that at least around 500,000 people are sent to the Cape sometime in the late 16th or early 17th century (also, we would probably get a South African nobility due to many Huguenots being nobles themselves, so that's always cool). I thought this timeline was pretty good at exploring that scenario.

And if the Huguenots have somewhere definitive to go where they can legally practice their religion that is also French-Speaking, then it would probably attract immigration from the 13 colonies and other European states. And somewhere between 500,000 to 1,000,000 French protestants in the early 17th century is a HUGE population to start with, especially because of the higher than average birth rates. By sheer numbers alone they would probably dominate the Cape and what would become Natal and the Free state. That is of course not even counting immigration from other countries. Simply by the fact that the Cape is so out of the way, very Protestant, and would be largely left to its own devices would make it an attractive place for settlement. If we get the British to control it in the 18th century, then it is likely that we get at least a few loyalists to settle in the Cape. It may or may not become English-speaking, but when self-government is granted (probably much earlier than OTL) we'd probably see something like the Cape Liberal tradition take hold across much of the country, without the fear of Black African domination. Of course the Zulus and Xhosa could have a much tougher time ITL, being swamped by so many whites that they either accede to be incorporated into South Africa or migrate further North, which would have quite a few interesting effects on native African tribes. And if what is OTL Free State and Transvaal is not already majority or plurality white by the mid-19th century, the gold and diamond rushes will probably make it so. This would make South Africa Britain's most important settler colony by a large margin, and would further siphon away immigration from Australia, New Zealand and Canada.

As for post-1900 effects, having a different colonizer for South Africa might not create too many butterflies simply because the Cape is just so far removed from everything else in Europe, but who knows. For sure we'd have a much more liberal South Africa than OTL.

So essentially the Dutch Cape Colony would either be butterflied away) or preceded by the French officially making the Cape into a Huguenot dumping ground in ATL, with the Dutch focusing on areas beyond the Cape yet within OTL South Africa prior to British domination?

 

[Sardar]

So essentially the Dutch Cape Colony would either be butterflied away) or preceded by the French officially making the Cape into a Huguenot dumping ground in ATL, with the Dutch focusing on areas beyond the Cape yet within OTL South Africa prior to British domination?

Or you could just not have the Dutch in the Cape at all. Maybe Western Australia?

 

[Warthog]

Lets say that through either deportations in the early 1900s or something far more gruesome, South Africa establishes a white minority centered around Anglos. The Afrikaners have to be a minority to ensure that they don't just bar immigration to maintain their own strength.
What would South Africa look like, and what position would it have in the continent?
Personally, I think Australia would be an adept example. Like the 5 other Big Anglophone nations, the notion that that they came about through expulsion & genocide would probably be minimalized in their culture.

Whether through "only" deportations or genocide, South Africa in this scenario would be (even more) of a pariah than OTL.

I also don't think it could happen.

If this is actually 1900s, pre union, it's not likely that such extreme horrors would come to be policy simultaneously in the 2 British colonies and the 2 Afrikaner republics. If after union in 1910, it would be both less likely to arise and also more likely to be opposed externally.

Genocide of this scale would not be as easy to ignore in the early 20th century as before, especially with black majority colonies all around.

Deportations OTOH would have quote an effect on the surrounding colonies, which in the case of the three protectorates, were part of the same imperial system.


Consider also that in the 1900s, the churches and missions were very active and widespread in black SA, and not without influence in London.

Even if this pseudoDraka fantasy somehow did emerge and survive, by the 60s you have black nations becoming independent, with notable populations descended from the deported (or refugees of the genocide). That's no Australia, that's Palestine/Israel on steroids.

 

[JamesBond88]

You’d have to change the borders of South Africa a lot unless you establish a POD far enough back to totally restructure the demography of the country.

If the Anglos and Afrikaners were on better terms (no Boer wars) then perhaps there could be a synthesis of cultures that doesn’t make the Afrikaners feel like they’re losing their country in the face of immigration.

Realistically though, if SA was carved up to create a White majority state then there’d be good land for the African groups, and the level of animosity would be correlated with the degree of coercion it took to get people into their respective territories. I don’t think other African states would care too much about the situation if the Africans in SA get OK land and real autonomy. It’s the ongoing, forceful segregation that creates a lot of problems for a White country in SA.

 

[rfmcdonald]

It is difficult for me to imagine this happening for the simple reason that South Africa as a settler colony depended heavily on African and other non-white labour. The whole point of the different South African systems of racial repression was to create non-white underclasses that would do the jobs whites did not want to do.

 

[Gabingston]

You definitely need a pod before 1900 to the point where South Africa was actually discovered. It should be noted that the Cape was basically treated as a stopping station by the Dutch East India Company and nothing more beyond that. Prioritizing settlement was on the bottom of a very long list for them. Changing this attitude, whether it be that France discovered the Cape first and sent its Huguenot's there for expulsion or whatnot, is key. You could have a sea change in British policy regarding the famine with them trying to encourage white settlement in south africa by subsidizing emigration there. But these are all effectively "shooting the shit" type of ideas.

Just for comparison America in 1776 had roughly 2.5 million colonists roughly 2.1 or so million who were white.
South Africa by contrast in 1805 had around 26,000 white colonists.

I know this has almost become an AH.com cliché by now, but a Portuguese South Africa could end up majority white, or at least like Brazil with a mixed-race majority. Hundreds of thousands of Portuguese emigrated to their colonies during the colonial era, and the Portuguese South African colony even getting 5% of the 700,000 Portuguese emigrants (35,000) during the 16th-18th centuries would mean a Portuguese South African population in the tens of millions by the present, and that's not mentioning the potential for mass immigration from Europe during the 19th and 20th Centuries. A Portuguese Cape Colony founded in the 16th or early 17th Century could easily expand to cover all of Africa south of the Zambezi, plus OTL's Angola and Northern Mozambique.

 

[CASSICTOR2]

How about the Holy Roman Empire? If the Government Centralized, it will likely have the colonies of the Dutch meaning South Africa.

The HRE have such a large population (the most populous behind France pop) that will highly likely to will emigrate to South Africa and German with their hired Mercenaries and Settlers moving to SA.


I think I'm my opinion this Might result of a Germanic Draka state

Any thoughts?