Having a war with Italy would be the by far fastest way to turn the generally indifferent Southern Slavs into eager proponents of the dual monarchy.
Aside your remembrance, can you name/show me a source for your statement about the tonnage these lines were capable to handle ?
Well, do you have any numbers on what british resources the italian economy depended upon, that couldn't be substituted for by the other CPs?
I.e. coal : the 'omission' of their french customers freed about the same amount of high quality coke and coal from german Rhein-Ruhr-region production alone (esp. silesian production left aside) the italians imported from Britain in 1913/1914 (unfortunatly for iron ore I don't have the according numbers at hands atm).
And the 'magic resource' money ... the CP's (plural) functioned well without the british bankers.
Aside, esp. in wartime (if not all the time) money is mostly a psycho-thing : you - and others - have to believe in.
If you and some others too don't do ... it's not much of worth at all as the ink the numbers are written within some exchange/account books.
Can't Italy buy coal and war materials from neutral powers like the United States (which will have an Italian American lobby helping Italy out)? I'd assume they'll try to do so in addition to demanding it from Germany or AH. I agree they'll be in serious trouble if they stay in the war more than a few months--their best policy would be to stay neutral and jump in once the CP are in reach of victory and help in the last few months of the war.
I think the most likely Italy in CP timeline would see Britain out of the Entente.
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In that situation, I can see Italy jumping in to deliver the coup de grace after France has bled itself white.
Nothing wrong with the Italian army per se, but their leaders were idiots. Especially Cadorna, and he'd be in charge.
THXHaving looked through my books, I can't find the reference. So, consider the point conceded. What I did find, I'll lay out below, with sources.
Well, then you very likely also recognized, that coal imports constantly declined from 1914 onwards and domestic italian production considerably increased.I did manage to find the Italian imports of coal - amounting to 9.759.000 tons in 1914 [the table refers to the following source: Istituto Centrale di Statistica: Sommario di statistiche storiche italiane 1816-1955, Rome 1958]. Coal shortages were common IOTL during the later phase of the war, but that's not particularly relevant.
What IMHO only shows how far below on the list of potential customers of the german coal-mining enterpreneurs the A-H-Navy was placed....
As an example, Austria-Hungary tried to import 405.302 tons in the lead-up to the war, but found that German sources could provide some 12% of the required quantities [Lawrence Sondhaus, The Naval Policy of Austria-Hungary, 1867-1918:
Navalism, Industrial Development, and the Politics of Dualism (West Lafayette:
Purdue University Press, 1994)].
The 'magic' of big numbers ......
So, ultimately - even with these additional railway lines (plus some hypothetical Swiss input due to a 1907 agreement that would allow German exports to Italy through Switzerland), you'd still need to be able to show that they can carry some 10 million tons (about 5% of total German annual production) to Italy.
Pls see above. I have rather problemd calling about 10% of the british import - about 1 million t of 'coal'-goods - "hardly any".I don’t have a detailed break down of the the Italian economy and balance of trade for the pre-War years, no. Suffice to say Italy imported a lot of its coal from Britain (which had a surplus) and hardly any from Germany (who sold theirs to ‘better’ customers).
A 'compliment' I would like to return as you yourself argue with quite a portion and from a position of hindsight most of the german as well as italian as well as ... almost nobody worldwide within the leading circles of politics, military as well as economy had.Your argument that Germany could sell that which it isn’t selling to France is disingenuous, as Germany in this scenario would have a slightly more important use for said coal, namely powering their own War economy.
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Likely.I suppose if you describe the nations of the “turnip winters” as doing well, we have different definitions of economic strength.
IMHO wrong definition of 'economic strenght' as well and also using an at least 'incomplete' definition of foreign trade of that era :...
The ‘others’ you mention are the trading nations Italy will need. Without the necessary surplus in production, trading nations wouldn’t be willing to run up a debt without specie payment received first.
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