What would a victorious CP Italy get and how quickly might the CP win the war?

Having a war with Italy would be the by far fastest way to turn the generally indifferent Southern Slavs into eager proponents of the dual monarchy.
 
Aside your remembrance, can you name/show me a source for your statement about the tonnage these lines were capable to handle ?

Having looked through my books, I can't find the reference. So, consider the point conceded. What I did find, I'll lay out below, with sources.

I did manage to find the Italian imports of coal - amounting to 9.759.000 tons in 1914 [the table refers to the following source: Istituto Centrale di Statistica: Sommario di statistiche storiche italiane 1816-1955, Rome 1958]. Coal shortages were common IOTL during the later phase of the war, but that's not particularly relevant.

Notably, the number doesn't include coal reserves for naval use. Pre-war stockpiling (or, rather, early war stockpiling as Italy didn't really prepare prior to entry IOTL) would increase that immensely. As an example, Austria-Hungary tried to import 405.302 tons in the lead-up to the war, but found that German sources could provide some 12% of the required quantities [Lawrence Sondhaus, The Naval Policy of Austria-Hungary, 1867-1918:
Navalism, Industrial Development, and the Politics of Dualism (West Lafayette:
Purdue University Press, 1994)].

This in spite of German production in 1914 being around 190 million tons.

So, ultimately - even with these additional railway lines (plus some hypothetical Swiss input due to a 1907 agreement that would allow German exports to Italy through Switzerland), you'd still need to be able to show that they can carry some 10 million tons (about 5% of total German annual production) to Italy.
 

Deleted member 94680

Well, do you have any numbers on what british resources the italian economy depended upon, that couldn't be substituted for by the other CPs?
I.e. coal : the 'omission' of their french customers freed about the same amount of high quality coke and coal from german Rhein-Ruhr-region production alone (esp. silesian production left aside) the italians imported from Britain in 1913/1914 (unfortunatly for iron ore I don't have the according numbers at hands atm).

I don’t have a detailed break down of the the Italian economy and balance of trade for the pre-War years, no. Suffice to say Italy imported a lot of its coal from Britain (which had a surplus) and hardly any from Germany (who sold theirs to ‘better’ customers). Your argument that Germany could sell that which it isn’t selling to France is disingenuous, as Germany in this scenario would have a slightly more important use for said coal, namely powering their own War economy. As for iron ore, I know Italy was especially lacking in this resource and as a consequence could only produce steel from scrap metal, or import higher quality steels from abroad. Domestic steel production in Italy was at the whim of Italian government production (essentially military in nature) and waxed and waned accordingly. This had the nock on effect of making the industry fairly unstable and not in a place to rapidly expand at the outbreak of War.

And the 'magic resource' money ... the CP's (plural) functioned well without the british bankers.
Aside, esp. in wartime (if not all the time) money is mostly a psycho-thing : you - and others - have to believe in.
If you and some others too don't do ... it's not much of worth at all as the ink the numbers are written within some exchange/account books.

I suppose if you describe the nations of the “turnip winters” as doing well, we have different definitions of economic strength. The ‘others’ you mention are the trading nations Italy will need. Without the necessary surplus in production, trading nations wouldn’t be willing to run up a debt without specie payment received first. Germany will know full well that Italy is short of cash and cannot allow resources needed on the home front to go to a country paying in IOUs.

Can't Italy buy coal and war materials from neutral powers like the United States (which will have an Italian American lobby helping Italy out)? I'd assume they'll try to do so in addition to demanding it from Germany or AH. I agree they'll be in serious trouble if they stay in the war more than a few months--their best policy would be to stay neutral and jump in once the CP are in reach of victory and help in the last few months of the war.

Italy can try, but the RN will have a blockade in the Mediterranean which will be more effective than the one for Germany. It still comes back to the issue of money and the fact they’ll be bidding against Britain and France and OTL Britain was able to outbid Germany for virtually everything, so I doubt Italy will have much luck there. The “Italian American lobby” didn’t achieve much OTL when they were trying to arrange loans at the end of the War, here they’re the representatives of a government waging aggressive War. I doubt a few scattered familial connections and a shared heritage will sway Wall Street that far.

I think the most likely Italy in CP timeline would see Britain out of the Entente.
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In that situation, I can see Italy jumping in to deliver the coup de grace after France has bled itself white.

Italy with Britain out of the Entente is an entirely different proposition.
 
Nothing wrong with the Italian army per se, but their leaders were idiots. Especially Cadorna, and he'd be in charge.

While I agree with you on the fact that the Army leadership of Italy was top-to-bottom, bloody morons. I kinda feel skeptical that that was the only problem that the Italian Army suffered, probably because of its poor performance in the First Italo-Ethiopian War and their somewhat more successful, but still lacklustre adventures in Libya.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Having looked through my books, I can't find the reference. So, consider the point conceded. What I did find, I'll lay out below, with sources.
THX :)
I did manage to find the Italian imports of coal - amounting to 9.759.000 tons in 1914 [the table refers to the following source: Istituto Centrale di Statistica: Sommario di statistiche storiche italiane 1816-1955, Rome 1958]. Coal shortages were common IOTL during the later phase of the war, but that's not particularly relevant.
Well, then you very likely also recognized, that coal imports constantly declined from 1914 onwards and domestic italian production considerably increased.
For the moment this table by @NOMISYRRUC who I've learned to know to be rather accurate with his numbers might suffice :
Italian Coal Supply 1913-18 in Long Tons Mk 2.png

Aside from given an impression what amount of coal might be needed over the course of at least OTL.


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As an example, Austria-Hungary tried to import 405.302 tons in the lead-up to the war, but found that German sources could provide some 12% of the required quantities [Lawrence Sondhaus, The Naval Policy of Austria-Hungary, 1867-1918:
Navalism, Industrial Development, and the Politics of Dualism (West Lafayette:
Purdue University Press, 1994)].
What IMHO only shows how far below on the list of potential customers of the german coal-mining enterpreneurs the A-H-Navy was placed.

French and belgian industrial customers producing profitable goods by themself which - in case - cound be sued for and being subjects to economical laws were much more attractive than a pure consumer whos funds depended on two parliaments both internally not pinnacles of friendly and effective operation as well as their cooperation with each other.
...
So, ultimately - even with these additional railway lines (plus some hypothetical Swiss input due to a 1907 agreement that would allow German exports to Italy through Switzerland), you'd still need to be able to show that they can carry some 10 million tons (about 5% of total German annual production) to Italy.
The 'magic' of big numbers ...;)
I don't think I have to specifically 'show' you what you demand, I simply retreat to comparision again.
In 1913 Germany exported to France and Belgium :
8.971.368 t of anthrazite coal (more to Belgium than to France)
and
3.313.022 t of coke ready for smelters (more to France tahn to Belgium
(Statistisches Jahrbuch für das Deutsche Reich [statistical Yearbook of the German Realm], voluime 1914, released June 1914)
plus
894.632 t coal and 183.488 t of coke for Italy btw.
These are roughly 12 million t of coal and coke transported into the german western neighbours by not much more rail lines (a search on the actually available rail connenctions between these countries can show you this) as the ones I've shown available for trade with Italy - only that these lines were also used by a lot more of other trade as well than only coal ... and for a MUCH larger volumes than the trade with Italy overall.
 
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NoMommsen

Donor
I don’t have a detailed break down of the the Italian economy and balance of trade for the pre-War years, no. Suffice to say Italy imported a lot of its coal from Britain (which had a surplus) and hardly any from Germany (who sold theirs to ‘better’ customers).
Pls see above. I have rather problemd calling about 10% of the british import - about 1 million t of 'coal'-goods - "hardly any".
Your argument that Germany could sell that which it isn’t selling to France is disingenuous, as Germany in this scenario would have a slightly more important use for said coal, namely powering their own War economy.
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A 'compliment' I would like to return as you yourself argue with quite a portion and from a position of hindsight most of the german as well as italian as well as ... almost nobody worldwide within the leading circles of politics, military as well as economy had.
Rather the opposite if you might remember the global cathcphrase of "home at X-mas" during the first 3 to 6 month.

And if we are at this : therefore the 'coal-question' would be (and was) of rather secondary importance for the italian politicians in their decisions - IOTL as well as ITTL.

Any offer of an economical/industrial bargain during the first 3 month by the germans might be a bonus but most likely not decisive for the italian side.
OTOH it would be very welcomed by the german mining industrialists who had 'just' lost some VERY important customers while new customers as home don't show up yet ("home ast X-mas !!! no need seen yet for ramping up war material production [what the german industrialists were VERY reluctant for the first 4 month as Rathenau and consorts might be able to tell you]). The 'real' wartime production contracting bagan november/december 194, being somewhat 'organized' only in March 1915.
I know at least of Stinnes who during the first 3 month still traded - or 'smuggled' ? - his coal and coke via Switzerland to some of his french customers.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
I suppose if you describe the nations of the “turnip winters” as doing well, we have different definitions of economic strength.
Likely.
I would render this as 'disingenous' since you compare apples with bananas by using yet another catch phrase.

The "turnip winter" or more precisely the food shortage in the CP's camp not nothing to do with the available financial means (I was refering to) which were rather formidabel for the CP; i.e. the Reichsbank could even increase the amount of gold it held until midth 1915 - despite its payments to the Ottomans in hard coin - and only in late 1916 it began to diminish in a considerable manner.
It was a question of moving food-stuff to the continent. The german problem was access to markets in a very physical way only : to actually move stuff to Germany or a CP harbor, NOT to buy it as money actually was there.

And ... how do you define "economic strength ? ... only by the credit someone has at what banking place ?

The germans didn't have a problem of financial 'credit'. I.e. actually the german embassy in the US had enough liqudity to bid for some mayor Toluol producer (IIRC an operation Fritz Duquesne was involved ... or was it Franz von Rintelen ?) not to 'ship' the stuff to Germany but to withhold it from the entente buyers.
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The ‘others’ you mention are the trading nations Italy will need. Without the necessary surplus in production, trading nations wouldn’t be willing to run up a debt without specie payment received first.
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IMHO wrong definition of 'economic strenght' as well and also using an at least 'incomplete' definition of foreign trade of that era :
HeyHOooh : Gold Standard Time
And as I told you already the german Mark was for a long time well backed up by Gold. ... aside the german embassies in neutral countries sitting on rather high to vast amounts of foreign currency (esp. Stirling and Dollar). Something the brituish Foreign office had to admitt in a pre-war assessment in early 1914 IIRC of german economical 'war-preparedness' compared to the 2nd Morroco-crisis.
 
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