What would a victorious CP Italy get and how quickly might the CP win the war?

[BooNZ]

I genuinely don’t think most people understand Italy’s financial and economic situation. I didn’t realise how precarious it was until I read up on it myself. It’s no quirk of ATL history that Italy reneged on their CP obligations, it’s hard facts that forced their hand. Their options were neutrality, switch to the Entente or economic collapse on the CP side, it’s that simple. Anything else is ASB.

There is also the matter of Italy blowing its load all over Libya in 1911 - the Italian military was pourly prepared even before that resource draining adventure.

However, as others have mentioned, this does not preclude Italy from putting in the slipper if the Entente are already down. At a minimum, a neutral Italy likely results in the Brusilov offensive stalling, since A-H has access to more and superior manpower.

 

[WeissRaben]

Yes but isn’t those mountains less bad

Nope! They are worse.

 

[Modern Imperialism]

Nope! They are worse.

Are the more flat or farmland land type area past the Rhône and think mountains east of it? Doesn’t the coastline help somewhat. They can get reinforcements and supplies that way? Being inland mountains would be worse then more coastal. Can they trail the coast? How fast can they move into Nice? I imagine that is easier to take directly then Savoy which is pretty rough.

But isn’t there more valleys and mobility in that area compare to Austria. I can see at terrain map. The Austrian mountains are higher and colder correct? How exactly are the French and Austrian ones different? I just imagine the French area there as more vegetated and green

 

[Noblesse Oblige]

There is also the matter of Italy blowing its load all over Libya in 1911 - the Italian military was pourly prepared even before that resource draining adventure.

However, as others have mentioned, this does not preclude Italy from putting in the slipper if the Entente are already down. At a minimum, a neutral Italy likely results in the Brusilov offensive stalling, since A-H has access to more and superior manpower.

Except wasn't the Italian Army always...not that good to begin with?
Honestly it's just easier to go the Neutral route.

 

[NoMommsen]

Fair one, but the Italian economy was so small and so dependent on British coal, shipping and loans, it’s more than a “bad idea” to go for it. Even those outside of the financial and industrial sectors knew they’d be crippled without British support.



It’s more than “economic concerns”, its the functioning of the economy. The coal needed to make the factories run, the iron to make steel, the loans to finance the industrial expenses. All of it depended on Britain.



Still doesn’t give the Central Powers a magic money tree.
They cannot function as an industrial nation without British support.

Well, do you have any numbers on what british resources the italian economy depended upon, that couldn't be substituted for by the other CPs ?
I.e. coal : the 'omission' of their french customers freed about the same amount of high quality coke and coal from german Rhein-Ruhr-region production alone (esp. silesian production left aside) the italians imported from Britain in 1913/1914 (unfortunatly for iron ore I don't have the according numbers at hands atm).

And the 'magic resource' money ... the CP's (plural) functioned well without the british bankers.
Aside, esp. in wartime (if not all the time) money is mostly a psycho-thing : you - and others - have to believe in.
If you and some others too don't do ... it's not much of worth at all as the ink the numbers are written within some exchange/account books.

 

[Keb]

Well, do you have any numbers on what british resources the italian economy depended upon, that couldn't be substituted for by the other CPs ?
I.e. coal : the 'omission' of their french customers freed about the same amount of high quality coke and coal from german Rhein-Ruhr-region production alone (esp. silesian production left aside) the italians imported from Britain in 1913/1914 (unfortunatly for iron ore I don't have the according numbers at hands atm).

And the 'magic resource' money ... the CP's (plural) functioned well without the british bankers.
Aside, esp. in wartime (if not all the time) money is mostly a psycho-thing : you - and others - have to believe in.
If you and some others too don't do ... it's not much of worth at all as the ink the numbers are written within some exchange/account books.

It's not so much quantity as the ability to deliver it to Italy. The CPs had sufficient spare capacity, if needed, but there was a single rail line linking Italy to Austria, which lacked the capacity to transfer the required quantities.

IIRC, it could carry about half the required tonnage.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Except wasn't the Italian Army always...not that good to begin with?
Honestly it's just easier to go the Neutral route.

Nothing wrong with the Italian army per se, but their leaders were idiots. Especially Cadorna, and he'd be in charge.

 

[Starslayer_D]

The mountains between Franceand Italy can be seen in several James Bond movies... every time you have car chases up and down serpentines with the sea down below. its not an invasion friendly terrain.
How high the mountains between Italy and Austria are depends on where. Down near Triest they are lower than between Italy and France, wich explains why the main fighting happened there..

 

[Byzantion]

Per the title.

A victorious Central Power Italy very well could still have a war with Austria anytime after.

 

[Modern Imperialism]

A victorious Central Power Italy very well could still have a war with Austria anytime after.

I think that would come down to what ends up of Austria and how it handles it’s after war. If they still fall apart I think they would get some of Italian lands on border and Dalmatia. While Germany would take Germans lands who might be for it too depending on how this goes down. Germans likely want to keep that port area just to have one in Mediterranean but they give Italy all of Dalmatia in exchange for Germany getting that.

Austria can still fall apart. After that it is really just Italy and Germany deciding between themselves who gets what but Germany is clearly in position of power. Italy isn’t going to try to fight them one on one especially if they now share a border

 

[M79]

What about having a victorious CP with Italy and Austria-Hungary followed by an AH collapse and division of the political corpse amongst her former allies? Perhaps with a few leftover rump states for Austria and Hungary themselves?

 

[Arkenfolm]

Can't Italy buy coal and war materials from neutral powers like the United States (which will have an Italian American lobby helping Italy out)? I'd assume they'll try to do so in addition to demanding it from Germany or AH. I agree they'll be in serious trouble if they stay in the war more than a few months--their best policy would be to stay neutral and jump in once the CP are in reach of victory and help in the last few months of the war.

A reasonable Italian demand will be Tunisia, maybe a few French African colonies here and there (especially French Somaliland), and the former County of Nice. Less likely are Corsica and Savoy, although in a total and decisive victory in 1916 or 1917 Germany might help Italy out in this regards to permanently cripple France and indebt Italy to them. They'll likely receive Trento from AH as a price of helping them out.

The mountains between Franceand Italy can be seen in several James Bond movies... every time you have car chases up and down serpentines with the sea down below. its not an invasion friendly terrain.
How high the mountains between Italy and Austria are depends on where. Down near Triest they are lower than between Italy and France, wich explains why the main fighting happened there..

"Isonzo in the Western Alps" seems like quite the battleground and a place where a huge number of Italians and Frenchmen will be tied down. It's likely going to be a major theater for the Italian Navy (since the AH Navy will be free to patrol and raid in their corner of the Mediterranean) and there will probably be plenty of RM-MN combat (the former helped by the Royal Navy) since the coastal route is critical in this theater.

Also, Monaco is in serious danger TTL since they're a French puppet and will likely capitulate to Italy sooner or later. IF Italy doesn't annex the former County of Nice post-war Monaco might be abolished by the French government in the 20s or 30s on some pretext.

I think that would come down to what ends up of Austria and how it handles it’s after war. If they still fall apart I think they would get some of Italian lands on border and Dalmatia. While Germany would take Germans lands who might be for it too depending on how this goes down. Germans likely want to keep that port area just to have one in Mediterranean but they give Italy all of Dalmatia in exchange for Germany getting that.

Italy demanded Trieste more than anything else. Just to join the war Italy will likely require at least Trento from Austria. If AH falls apart then Croatia will want to keep Dalmatia. Maybe Croatia with Istria, Italy with OTL borders (minus South Tyrol), Germany with the port of Koper/Capodistria.

 

[Modern Imperialism]

Can't Italy buy coal and war materials from neutral powers like the United States (which will have an Italian American lobby helping Italy out)? I'd assume they'll try to do so in addition to demanding it from Germany or AH. I agree they'll be in serious trouble if they stay in the war more than a few months--their best policy would be to stay neutral and jump in once the CP are in reach of victory and help in the last few months of the war.

A reasonable Italian demand will be Tunisia, maybe a few French African colonies here and there (especially French Somaliland), and the former County of Nice. Less likely are Corsica and Savoy, although in a total and decisive victory in 1916 or 1917 Germany might help Italy out in this regards to permanently cripple France and indebt Italy to them. They'll likely receive Trento from AH as a price of helping them out.

"Isonzo in the Western Alps" seems like quite the battleground and a place where a huge number of Italians and Frenchmen will be tied down. It's likely going to be a major theater for the Italian Navy (since the AH Navy will be free to patrol and raid in their corner of the Mediterranean) and there will probably be plenty of RM-MN combat (the former helped by the Royal Navy) since the coastal route is critical in this theater.

Also, Monaco is in serious danger TTL since they're a French puppet and will likely capitulate to Italy sooner or later. IF Italy doesn't annex the former County of Nice post-war Monaco might be abolished by the French government in the 20s or 30s on some pretext.


Italy demanded Trieste more than anything else. Just to join the war Italy will likely require at least Trento from Austria. If AH falls apart then Croatia will want to keep Dalmatia. Maybe Croatia with Istria, Italy with OTL borders (minus South Tyrol), Germany with the port of Koper/Capodistria.

Croatia isn’t likely given much. They might only be given independence as a rump puppet state at best and this is only if Hungarians either caused it to fall apart or pissed off germans during.

Germans will have near complete say on how former empire is divided up. Non-Germans for most part are given same treatment as Eastern Europe. Divided up into puppets controlled by a German monarch.

If Hungarians caused a civil war for example that broke empire over disagreements over reform they likely get reduced to its otl borders plus Slovakia. A German king from Austria line put in power there and given decent amount of power(keep Hungarians in there place. It is supposed to be somewhat of a punishment). Transylvania as independent puppet multi ethnic nation of German king. Banat made independent country due to heavy German population and borders do actually matter. A lot of countries like to avoid enclaves when possible. Poland is given Polish Austrian lands. They are puppet so Germans their are a privilege class and not powerless minority. The rest would be given to Germany for most part. Think similar to Holy Roman Empire borders but plus a few German majority lands that ride along it. That would likely be base between two.

Germany can do whatever hell it wants here for most. Eastern Europe is puppets. France can’t do anything. Britain probably pulled away from mainland Europe after CP victory.

Italy wants Dalmatia too. Germany wants to keep them happy so give that and promise special protections and rights to Italians in new German lands. Dalmatia more land too. Italy is a useful ally. Croatia much less so. Italy might not be most powerful but they still have colonies and are just bigger. Also Germans would favor Italians over most Slavs. Less Slav nations is preferable to them. Germany could even offer Albania to Italy.

That would make Italy more loyal and Germany likely supports any future adventures into correct that “failure” they had in Africa which could still happen. Italy is valued ally who might start developing a US/UK relationship with each other. Italy being more UK or weaker one of the two. Italy gets a nice new long coastline and Germans have a nice port Mediterranean. Italians in Germany as respected minority and workers could benefit Italy trade wise in long run. Many Italians getting German educations and setting up trade between the two there can have benefits. Germany would be building up trade ties in Europe after the war. Italy not being a puppet and helping win war would see Germany being somewhat more mutual with them. Italy did expect Dalmatia from allies and were pissed when they didn’t get it.

 

[BooNZ]

Nothing wrong with the Italian army per se, but their leaders were idiots. Especially Cadorna, and he'd be in charge.

*cough*

A victorious Central Power Italy very well could still have a war with Austria anytime after.

Unlikely, since Italy has nothing A-H wants and on land the Italian miltiary was never a match for A-H. Further, Wilhelm would not approve.

What about having a victorious CP with Italy and Austria-Hungary followed by an AH collapse and division of the political corpse amongst her former allies? Perhaps with a few leftover rump states for Austria and Hungary themselves?

How? Why is it we imagine A-H spontaneously falling apart and not France for example?

 

[jacobk]

Still doesn’t give the Central Powers a magic money tree.
They cannot function as an industrial nation without British support.

I think the most likely Italy in CP timeline would see Britain out of the Entente.

Say Wilhelm puts his foot down right from the start: no marching through Belgium. This snarls up the whole German deployment. By the time they reorganize for a western advance, the French are already trying to elan their way through Alsace-Lorraine.

Some bright German spark reports the results and the idea percolates upwards that it's more efficient to sit behind a machine gun and wait for the enemy to deliver themselves to your bullets than it is to storm enemy fortifications and deliver the bullets to them. The war turns into the French army throwing away lives in the west, the Russians being outmaneuvered in the east, and the British sitting on the sideline thanking God that they're clear of the whole mess.

In that situation, I can see Italy jumping in to deliver the coup de grace after France has bled itself white.

 

[M79]

Why is it we imagine A-H spontaneously falling apart and not France for example?

Hungary was a perpetual hotbed for secession with the various nationalist groups jockeying for autonomy. Granted, there is a chance that it stays unified if the economy remains together and especially if the war ends quickly, but give Wilson a chance to broadcast his thoughts on self-determination before his unfortunate event and it may plant seeds, perhaps in time for decolonization if it still happens or much sooner if there is a variant of the Depression. I'm not sure how popular the idea of France shattering like a glass tabletop on rock would be though I've done maps for such a scenario before.

 

[BooNZ]

Hungary was a perpetual hotbed for secession with the various nationalist groups jockeying for autonomy. Granted, there is a chance that it stays unified if the economy remains together and especially if the war ends quickly, but give Wilson a chance to broadcast his thoughts on self-determination before his unfortunate event and it may plant seeds, perhaps in time for decolonization if it still happens or much sooner if there is a variant of the Depression. I'm not sure how popular the idea of France shattering like a glass tabletop on rock would be though I've done maps for such a scenario before.

Did Hungary think it could fend for itself against the Russian bear? Did the Czechs believe they were large enough to form an autonomous state that would not be swallowed by either Germany or Russia. Did the Poles in A-H fancy having a Russian autocrat as an overlord? Did the Croats or Bosniaks fancy becoming honorary Serbs - or else?

A-H was far from perfect, but many of those proposed cures had fatal side effects for many. There is a big difference between seeking greater autonomy within the existing system and seeking independence from the existing system entirely.

Compared to its peers, A-H prepared poorly for WW1, started the war poorly and found itself fighting on three separate fronts - and despite this would likley have maintained its war effort beyond any of the Entente powers had the US not entered the war. Sure, A-H was propped up by Germany, but no more so than France, Italy and later the UK.

 

[Alanith]

I think the most likely Italy in CP timeline would see Britain out of the Entente.

Say Wilhelm puts his foot down right from the start: no marching through Belgium. This snarls up the whole German deployment. By the time they reorganize for a western advance, the French are already trying to elan their way through Alsace-Lorraine.

Some bright German spark reports the results and the idea percolates upwards that it's more efficient to sit behind a machine gun and wait for the enemy to deliver themselves to your bullets than it is to storm enemy fortifications and deliver the bullets to them. The war turns into the French army throwing away lives in the west, the Russians being outmaneuvered in the east, and the British sitting on the sideline thanking God that they're clear of the whole mess.

In that situation, I can see Italy jumping in to deliver the coup de grace after France has bled itself white.

Even better, have the Ireland situation spark up on them. It'd be easy to shout down the warhawks in the British Cabinet with cries of "We must tend to our own affairs before intervening in the Continent, do YOU want to tell the public that they must send their boys off to die in the hundreds of thousands on the German border? Look what a excellent job the French are doing at that!"

 

[NoMommsen]

It's not so much quantity as the ability to deliver it to Italy. The CPs had sufficient spare capacity, if needed, but there was a single rail line linking Italy to Austria, which lacked the capacity to transfer the required quantities.

IIRC, it could carry about half the required tonnage.

Something I'm prepared to challange.
There were already three lines planned for military transport in case of Italy standing to its 3-bund obligations,

And IIRC there were also at least 2 transit lines from Germany through Switzerland.

Aside your remembrance, can you name/show me a source for your statement about the tonnage these lines were capable to handle ?

 

[NoMommsen]

A victorious Central Power Italy very well could still have a war with Austria anytime after.

Well, actually there weren't many proponents for an 'italian campaign', in A-H prior to the war and until Italy actually chose sides.

The most prominent - Conrad von Hötzendorf - was due to his notorius war-against-Italy ranting even fired by Franz Josef (and Franz Ferdinand very much and very fast regreted also due to Conrads warmongering his efforts to reinstall Conrad).

The Trentino :
Actually the then Ministerpresident Karl von Stürgkh already on 31.July proposed granting it to Italy. He even produced a detailed treaty for.
... though ... he intended it only as a fake, hoping the italians would still not accept it due to the balkanese solutions by A-H it included. But then A-H would have shown Germany that it was prepared to comply.

However, neither Franz Josef for reasons of honor nor the hungarians for reasons of fear (the italians still might accept it) vetoed against.