Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by M79, Oct 28, 2019.
Per the title.
Nice, Annecy, Corsica and Tunisia probably, as well as Trento and Trieste from Austria as compensation for entering the war on the CP side (Italy wouldn't enter a war at the same side as Austria without some compensation).
the war would be over rather quickly if Italy had entered the war on the Central Powers side at the start of the war
Schlieffen Plan may very well succeed due to the diversion of many French forces
and with the fact that the austrians no longer have to guard the border with Italy they can focus on Serbia and the Russians more
so here's the thing if the war ends before by Christmas or a little into 1915 a central power Victory will be more tame and not ask for so much
the British don't lose a thing
Belgium will most likely lose its Colonial territory. but I think the British would be able to make sure that the kingdom of Belgium remains Independence
Grand Duchy of Luxembourg probably becomes part of the German Empire but as a Constituent state.
I don't see Russia losing much but at the same time they could lose Finland and Poland in the aftermath of this war. any Polish state would be extremely small and landlocked Russia doesn't lose any of the Baltic states
Finland is most likely just given its independence and unlike Poland would not be a German puppet.
France is a different story they will lose Colonial territory in Africa most likely to Germany and Italy I do not see France relinquishing any territory a part of France though.
the Ottoman Empire may stay out of the war because of the recent war with Italy.
Italy would probably get Tunisia, more padding to Libya, a formal protectorate over Albania, and possibly even part/all of French Somaliland.
Possibly some border territory with France.
Italy would need at minimum Nice and Savoy and Tunisia and quite possibly Corsica, and would probably get all of them as entry in 1914 probably means France falls. Germany also has a vested interest in granting irredentist claims on France since it guarantees Italy won't be able to reconcile with them after the war.
Beyond that I'd say French colonies and the Congo to Germany- say Morocco and Gabon to Germany (alternately if Spain joins- not unlikely if Paris falls in 1914- Gabon goes to Spain), Italy probably gets the rest of Somaliland or at least the Fruench part.
If Britain is in the War, Italy cannot join the CP. It’s financial and industrial suicide for the Italian economy. There will be a collapse on a home front proving incapable of supporting Armies in the field.
To answer the OP’s question, a CP Italy would probably get a fascist overthrow of the government earlier and I severely doubt the CP would win the War with the additional net drain of a CP Italy.
It depends on when Italy joins. Italy being in the war from the beginning slows down the transfer of French troops from North Africa and means the French have to defend their border, or else the Italians waltz right into Marseilles. Pull a field Army worth of troops out of the Battles in Northern France and depending on where they come from results range from very sub-optimal (Germany does better in Race to sea, possibly taking Bethune and cratering French war production or more channel ports and annoying British convoys/logistics) to disastrous (Germans being able to outflank and destroy Entente armies piecemeal and pull off an actual win). In the latter case the war is over before any resource shortages really bite Italy
Of course if Italy joins in at the OTL time, or earlier in 1915 or 1916 or probably most parts of 1917, is a question. It all depends on how much imports does Italy needs, what level they mobilize and such. They don't need to mobilize near as much as OTL, a defensive stand is enough, as them merely being CP takes off a lot of pressure from A-H and incidentally Germany, pressures Russia more and sews up the Balkans. Might get Romania to go CP too, certainly puts paid to the Salonika front
There is the possibility of Italy being opportunistic, joining in 1918 after the French start collapsing, having been previously neutral and their neutrality having led to other circumstances like no US entry. Again Italy only being in the war a matter of months reduces their exposure to resources issues, this scenario is probably the best from an Italian POV
Dalmatia and free hand over Albania might be given instead. I think Italy is given some of the Italian majority lands on the border but not as much extend east compared to otl. Austria has more Germans there and its a more major port for them. They will recognize Italian rights and privileges in Austria for helping CP. They might give them Dalmatia because it has much more non Germans then other areas they could give them. Some of the claims in the north do over lap with some German ethnic lands a bit.
Italy can get a lot out of France. They might take more directly from France instead of Germany. Germany just takes Luxembourg and creates demilitarized zone in northern France. Belgium likely dismantled and the idea of a United Dutch buffer is brought back in the north. Italy get Corsica, Nice, and Savoy with little issue. In colonies they could get Tunis, Djibouti, and maybe steals some Chinese ports too. In Europe if Germany was looking to screw France really hard and Italy feels a little too over ambitious by success tries to annex everything east of Rhône River.
I don’t think they get anything from Britain even if they still join. I don’t think they could bear British navy or make heavy advancements on them. Would Britain join even if Germany still invaded Belgium like otl but has Italy support from the very start? Italians are pushing in southern France while the Germans are rushing through Belgium towards Paris. Can France even fight a two front war at all?
Could Italy Chad?
Italy would be stuck in a different set of mountains than OTL. Italians and mountain offensives is not the love story we need, but the one we deserve.
Yes but isn’t those mountains less bad and the coastline makes resupplying easier. The Austrians might not have been as strong as France but their mountain border is much more defendable then France especially with the Germans marching towards Paris.
France is doing good to hold the lines up north especially early in the war. How many troops can they really afford to spare if Italy invaded with Germany. You also have the Austrians fully focused on Balkans and holding off Russians. That’s big for Germany. France might fall before Russia. Once Paris is captured the war is over and Britain will even pull out if its still early and they joined.
Italy can also invade Tunis and maybe Algeria which does hurt manpower on the western front. Germany probably was really annoyed Italy didn’t join. They really don’t have to do much but be a distraction and the Germans could win the war for them.
Italy can join CP, its just thats its Hitler scale Gamble betting on short victorious war.
Not really. It’s a simple economic calculation, one that Salandra and Sonnino made OTL and realised they couldn’t go CP. They would need vast quantities of German-Austrian supplies (that the Germans or especially the Austrians wouldn’t be able to deliver) before even contemplating mobilisation. Short War or not, Italy didn’t have the industrial base or the economy to fight a War and wouldn’t have the public opinion to fight for what the CP could offer.
Just because economic calculations make something a bad idea, doesn't mean it's something a nation wouldn't do. If that was the case there would never have been a WW1 at all.
Any sorts of incidents in the years before 1914 could have led to bad blood between Italy and France with "Now is the time to get back at them for....."-feelings overriding economic concerns.
That said I think the best way for Italy to join the CP from a cost-benefit analysis would be for them to stay neutral longer at first. Then for butterflies to have the U.S. also stay neutral. And then them joining, once Russia throws the towel and Entente credit runs out.
Quite so. It would be nice if postulates like this give plausible arguments why X happened instead of Y, instead of just saying it happened. The criteria for an alternate reality is that there is some rhyme and reason, otherwise just put into the ASB section.
Fair one, but the Italian economy was so small and so dependent on British coal, shipping and loans, it’s more than a “bad idea” to go for it. Even those outside of the financial and industrial sectors knew they’d be crippled without British support.
It’s more than “economic concerns”, its the functioning of the economy. The coal needed to make the factories run, the iron to make steel, the loans to finance the industrial expenses. All of it depended on Britain.
Still doesn’t give the Central Powers a magic money tree.
They cannot function as an industrial nation without British support.
I genuinely don’t think most people understand Italy’s financial and economic situation. I didn’t realise how precarious it was until I read up on it myself. It’s no quirk of ATL history that Italy reneged on their CP obligations, it’s hard facts that forced their hand. Their options were neutrality, switch to the Entente or economic collapse on the CP side, it’s that simple. Anything else is ASB.
If Paris falls, and France seems to be on the verge of defeat, Italy could try in 1914 what they did IOTL 1940 hoping that the war is won and it's going to end up quite soon.
Why would Paris fall in 1914 here?
The battle of the Marne is a German victory by some strike of luck.
If France is ready and kicking, I cannot imagine a reason why Italy is going to risk entering the war for the reasons quoted above. So, the Marne has to be a German victory and France get hit hard.
PoD on PoD make for poor AH
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