Suppose that the Tokugawa government starts its modernization earlier - perhaps by having Yoshinobu become shogun in 1858 instead of the teenage Iemochi - and they manage to win the Boshin War. How would Japanese policies, domestic and foreign, be affected? Would the country continue to have two capitals, one for the shogun (Edo) and one for the emperor (Kyoto)? Could it become a "double monarchy" of sorts? Finally, would the abolition of feudalism be as thorough as it was during the Meiji Restoration?
What would a surviving Tokugawa Japan look like?
- Thread starter Vinization
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The existence of the Shogun naturally means less abolition of feudalism, and there would be an ATL Boshin War: who wins that will shape Japan's course, either fairly close to OTL or way worse than that, with hardly an in between.
Maybe they'll still ended up as a Military Dictatorship, but not that FANATICAL Military Dictatorship since there won't be Imperial side winning the Boshin War.
Un-Ironically enough, the Shogunate might ended up less "Imperialistic" than Imperial Japan. They'll reform their military more as Shinsengumi force to keep internal order and made Imperial Family more or less Royal Hostages with religious duties while power is shared between the Shogun (as de facto Monarch), and whatever Prime Minister they'll cobble up after the Boshin War.
Japan might still expand to annex Taiwan and few Pacific Islands ITTL, but they'll stay away from making outright colonies in Mainland Asia.
Japanese Micronesia was won from Germany, who in turn got it when Spain lost the Spanish-American war
That would be huge, since from what I understand the First Sino-Japanese War all but assured the fall of the Qing dynasty. Perhaps they could tumble along for a few more decades, or perhaps even reform themselves.
Although if the Imperial Family gets extinct in direct and legitimate lines like IOTL but without the adoption that happened IOTL, they might likely end up Communist Ala China.
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Shogunate must still modernise Japan greatly. So it probably it has strong military class but Japan is not such nationalist and specaility not so expansionist. It might still conquer Korea and perhaps still defeat Russia if Russo-Japanese War still occurs.
Not really sure would Tokugawas still hold power to 2023 or would some serious crisis topple them from power.
Not really sure would Tokugawas still hold power to 2023 or would some serious crisis topple them from power.
kholieken
Banned
Probably not much. Like @Lalli said Japan must modernize, so there would be massive change in next 30 years. Effect of change be lead by Emperor or Shogun is less relevant.
Yes. But Kyoto would be far less important.
No. Shogunate victory would make Emperor power reduced to japanese version of Archbishop of Canterbury, respected but politically irrelevant.
Yes. Shogunate would need to destroy rebellious daimyo and modernization would need some sort of administrative change.
Defeat in war ? Internal division ? 19-20th century is age of Imperialism unfortunately.
Yes.
If China and Korea were stronger, that likely would've reduced the imperial ambitions of Japan, both in terms of feasibility and in terms of relations. Japan in the 1860s and part of the 1870s still saw the Qing as a potential ally against Western imperialism and maintained Korean independence as a policy until the 1890s. They only shifted gears on both as a result of seeing both nations buckle under Western aggression and economic inroads and decided that they had to take as much as they could before the Europeans could. Pan-Asianism might not be wholly discredited in this case.
As for the Ryukyus, they were subjugated by the Shimazu clan in the 1600s, so being fully annexed is likely still quite possible.
My guess is that they would not be able to keep Russia at bay (OTL was already plenty lucky) and they'd probably do more along the lines of Siam, than Meii Japan.
While bad to modern audiences, there's no denying that the ultra-expansionist course (with plenty luck) all but ensured Japan would end up on top and not closer to the bottom.
The problem with the bakufu (well, one of the problems) is that it was highly resistant to change and meaningful reforms. They were better at adopting new military tactics and technology than they were reforming the internal administration of Japan. It was an increasingly shaky (due to large amounts of disgruntled samurai), unfair system that had worked well at one point in time but was increasingly becoming fragile, and policymakers mostly just resorted to vague Confucian decrees in an attempt to paper over the cracks. I don't think the bakufu surviving is impossible, but it would probably require a dynamic group of reform-minded leaders within the system to pull it off, and it's a bit hard imagining such people rising to the top (there were members of the government who were more forwards thinking, but never enough).
That being said, lets say the bakufu does pull through, at least in the short term. Rather than winning the Boshin War I think a better POD would be them successfully suppressing Satsuma and Choshu in the years leading up to the war. It's not that hard to imagine something like the Second Choshu Expedition being a success. Many of the military reforms of the Meiji government had their roots in late bakufu policies so there's not really a big change there. A major question mark would be how the bakufu handles the samurai class. The Meiji government abolishing the feudal privileges of the samurai was a major step towards economic modernization. Given that the bakufu drew its legitimacy in part from being the top samurai they may have a tougher time doing that. On the other hand, the samurai are the class most responsible for the downfall of the bakufu, so maybe they'd take stronger action. As it turns out having a large class of well-educated, disgruntled men with militaristic ideals is something that can lead to a good deal of political instability.
I think a surviving Tokugawa government would have a much weaker economy than Meiji Japan and would thus not be in the position to embark upon a massive expansionist program. They could keep Russia "at bay" through an alliance with Britain and/or France but they won't be a major continental power. If you set their economy back by, say, 10-20 years you already make it much harder for Japan to accomplish what they did OTL. Japanese victory in the First Sino-Japanese War for example wasn't foregone conclusion - many observers at the time expected China to win. Slow down Japan's industrialization and they probably never even embark on such a war in the first place. I also think that without major reforms the bakufu would fall eventually. Pre-Meiji Japan already had a high rate of urbanization and literacy for an agrarian society, with both merchants and samurai forming a politically aware urban middle class. This cosmopolitan middle class is only going to become wealthier and more politically aware as trade with the outside world picks up, and they're going to start wondering why they're stuck being ruled by some stuffy old families who just happened to win a war a few centuries ago.
That being said, lets say the bakufu does pull through, at least in the short term. Rather than winning the Boshin War I think a better POD would be them successfully suppressing Satsuma and Choshu in the years leading up to the war. It's not that hard to imagine something like the Second Choshu Expedition being a success. Many of the military reforms of the Meiji government had their roots in late bakufu policies so there's not really a big change there. A major question mark would be how the bakufu handles the samurai class. The Meiji government abolishing the feudal privileges of the samurai was a major step towards economic modernization. Given that the bakufu drew its legitimacy in part from being the top samurai they may have a tougher time doing that. On the other hand, the samurai are the class most responsible for the downfall of the bakufu, so maybe they'd take stronger action. As it turns out having a large class of well-educated, disgruntled men with militaristic ideals is something that can lead to a good deal of political instability.
I think a surviving Tokugawa government would have a much weaker economy than Meiji Japan and would thus not be in the position to embark upon a massive expansionist program. They could keep Russia "at bay" through an alliance with Britain and/or France but they won't be a major continental power. If you set their economy back by, say, 10-20 years you already make it much harder for Japan to accomplish what they did OTL. Japanese victory in the First Sino-Japanese War for example wasn't foregone conclusion - many observers at the time expected China to win. Slow down Japan's industrialization and they probably never even embark on such a war in the first place. I also think that without major reforms the bakufu would fall eventually. Pre-Meiji Japan already had a high rate of urbanization and literacy for an agrarian society, with both merchants and samurai forming a politically aware urban middle class. This cosmopolitan middle class is only going to become wealthier and more politically aware as trade with the outside world picks up, and they're going to start wondering why they're stuck being ruled by some stuffy old families who just happened to win a war a few centuries ago.
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Eh, Japan's first go at colonial expansion was Taiwan in the 1890s. Korea got annexed in 1910, Manchuria entered their sphere of influence at the same time but wasn't under Japanese control until the 1930s, the Pacific Islands weren't until WWI, and so forth. Japan spent 1868-1894 industrializing and modernizing without any expansionism or colonialist policy (they focused on varying levels of intervention rather than conquest when it came to their neighbors during this period) and was pretty secure in terms of not falling to Western domination by that point due to diplomatic relations and military reforms. They already were a top 10 economy by the 1870s and the colonies didn't really factor in until the 1910s. Japan's real economic miracle was after WWII, after they'd lost all those colonies, so I can't agree with the notion that ultra-expansionism ultimately meaningfully benefited Japan.
Russia's likely not a threat since they can't meaningfully project power into East Asia to the point it could threaten Japan until after the Trans-Siberian Railroad is finished, by which point Japan would be a British ally/puppet. Then they'd have to actually build a navy that could threaten Japan while not getting the British involved. The Japanese were lucky that the Russians were incompetent during the Russo-Japanese War and that let them push the Russians back (albeit at a crippling price), but it's not like the Russians were ever able to push forward either. Russia might be able to entrench itself in Korea, but then that'd just invite more scrutiny from the UK and US (both of which bankrolled Japan during the Russo-Japanese War to counter protectionist Tsarist Russia's expansion). And that in turn stretches Russia even thinner.
The bakufu would have reformed massively and somewhat centralized although not to the extent of OTL so you would see a federal system within Japan. Kobu gattai, or the syncretization of imperial-shogunal authority and governance would occur. Modernization still happens, possibly faster, and it’s possible the unequal treaties are not signed. I see a Japan where eventually the Tokugawa clan within a new framework attains a “first among equals” rather than supreme authority. This also means that the samurai class either last much longer or fits into a new Japanese modern society, so expect to see greater class tension in Japan.
In terms of militarism and nationalism, bushido would not spread to the common masses like it did IOTL due to the swift abolishing of the samurai clan as the clans would be governing the country.
Japan would definitely be different but the knot thing is that there are a lot of PODs where a modern Tokugawa Japan happens and they’re all different.
With a more marginalised Emperor, IMO it might be even less likely to be a republic.
However, if the position of Shogun some how ends up becoming an elected figure, they could become a president-in-all-but-name.
Ironically some of the bakufu loyalists did fiund a republic at the end of the Bosnian War, the short lived Ezo Republic in Hokkaido.
If the shogun remains in power there likely wouldn’t be a republic.
IMO the best chance of a Republican Japan by the mid 20th century is something like this: the bakufu successfully suppresses the Restoration movement and clamps down on the imperial court. This means that anti-shogun forces will no longer be able to conspire with the Emperor and his associates. A decade or two down the line resistance to the bakufu instead coalesces around a republican movement inspired by France and maybe America. They overthrow the bakufu and implement a new liberal French style constitution, instead of the rather rather illiberal Prussian style constitution that Japan adopted OTL. That being said I do think they would keep the emperor around, though perhaps with no power or legal role (as is the case in the current Japanese constitution).