I always preffered the CP win sceniarios, inwhich Austria-Hungary makes the difference. So Austria-Hungary prepares a bit better for the war (also Potiorek dies, always!). When the war starts, the second army is deployed properly in Galicia. After the first Austrian victory at Krasnik, the Auffenberg's Fourth Army encircles and annihilates most of the Russian Fifth Army, then marches on Kholm. Army Group Boroevic detaches from the Fourth Army and turns South, which together with the 3rd Army forces the Russian Third Army to retreat. Dankl's First Army takes Lublin, thus the frontline is on the Lublin-Kholm-Bug-Dniester line by late September. By mid-November, Ivangorod and Warsaw are taken. Meanwhile, the Serbs attempt to break into Bosnia, later into Szerém, they fail both time and suffer significant casualties.
In 1915, Russia suffers defeats after defeats, by the end of the year, the Austro-Hungarian frontline is on the Luniniec-Sorny-Rovno-Proskurov line. Together with Bulgaria, Austria-Hungary invades and conquers Serbia.
In 1916, Austria-Hungary occupies Montenegro and Albania, where out of 200 000 trapped Serbian soldiers, 40 000 is successfully evacuated to Corfu by the British, while the rest is finally defeated by the Austro-Hungarian army. Meanwhile, a huge Russian offensive during the summer was repulsed by the Austro-Hungarians. In the counter-offensive, the Central Powers take Olevsk, Jitomir and Zhmerinka. Romania joins the war against Russia. In november, revolution shakes Russia. The new Russian provisional government sues for peace.
In 1917, Germany occupies Riga and Minsk. The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk is signed with Russia in april. According to the treaty, Russia cedes almost all of Russian Poland to Austria-Hungary, Bessarabia to Romania and Kars to the Ottoman Empire. The United Baltic Duchy and the Kingdom of Lithuania are also established in personal union with Germany. Russia West to the Daugava and Dnieper comes under Central Power occupation, until the war in the West ends. After being streghtened by both own and Austro-Hungarian divisions from the Eastern Front, the Germans launch their final all-out campaign on the Western Front in may. Paris falls in september and France sues for peace. Later, armistice with Britain is signed as well. In the last months, Italy declared war on France as well.
The following peace treaty is not that harsh, because the British can't be forced to anything, because of their naval superiority, but they also object any too big burdens on France and threaten with the resume of war and the maintaining of blockade. Austria-Hungary also in opposition of harsh terms, because they don't want Germany to be too strong either. Eventually France is forced to cede economically important areas to Germany near the border, Belgium becomes a German satelite. France also cedes Savoy and Nice to Italy. On the Balkans, Bulgaria received Greek Macedonia East to the Struma River, Serbian Macedonia, and parts of Serbia East to the Great Morava River. Serbia, Montenegro and Albania all became Austro-Hungarian satelite states.
In the following years, Emperor and King Karl I/IV establishes with the hasty approval of both Austrian and Hungarian parliements the third party of the Habsburg state, the Kingdom of Poland, which consists of Congress Poland, Galicia-Volhynia and Bukovina, thus the Polish version of Trialism is implemented.
In a sceniario like this, as Austria-Hungary-Poland would slowly catch up with Germany economically, the rise of conflict between these countries could become increasingly likely. By the 40s, the following two option would be present:
Germany-Austria-Hungary-Poland vs UK-Russia-France or Germany with Italy going to either side, which is winning; or Germany-Italy vs France-Austria-Hungary-Poland(-UK) with Russia remaining isolated from both groups, since it has claims on both sides.