What would a Second World War look like if the Central Powers won World War One?

RNG

Banned
What would a Second World War look like if the Central Powers won World War One? Which nations would take part in such a war and what would the political ideologies be of the nations? Would Japan's expansionist ideals be existent and if so would they form part of such a war or would there be two separate wars? And what would a post war world look like, would there be cold war, between who, and who would win? What about nuclear technology and other technology in general, would they be as advanced? What do you think?
 
Without any details of the how’s and when’s of such a victory, the odds and shape of such a WW2 can’t even be guessed at. It could be literally anything.
 
It depends how CPs won WW1. And it is too possible that there is not WW2. And things would change anyway dramatically that it is difficult to make estimations if not know details.
 
Despite it being a popular trope , France CANNOT challenge Germany a third time. It does not have the population, industry, or will. If it goes radical it may have the will but not the other two. Most likely after a CP victory it gets permanently trapped in Germany's sphere.

How Britain and Russia get defeated in WW1 is of supreme importance.

Britain can only be "defeated" in the sense that she can be persuaded to cease hostilities after France and Russia have been defeated. The population might get a bit revanchist, especially if the defeat causes Britain to lose its grip on Ireland. I suspect, though, that a sort of Cold War might develop between Britain and a German dominated Europe, with Britain seeking America as a full-time ally rather than just a friend to counterbalance Germany's might.
 

Deleted member 97083

It could be the Central Powers vs. communists inside their own borders/puppet states. Starting off more as a revolution than a war.
 
With a CP victory there would be 3 superpowers; USA, German MittelEuropa and Russia/Soviet Union. Perhaps some sort of western European strategic union with France and Britain might form some sort of quasi 4th superpower; they would be very vulnerable to invasion and blockade to be fully effective against Germany but might be very effective against the US or Russia/SU. If Britain and France aren't very closely tied together then they along with Italy, Japan and more minor powers will be pawns to the big 3.

Indeed it might be the smaller powers that cause WW2; Italy in Abyssinia, Japan in Manchuria, Britain and France in colonial squabbles. If they come up against one of the big 3 then possibly another of the big 3 will back them and there's your WW2.
 
Outright victory likely requires much more alteration than merely a stalemated war. For me the most plausible scenario is a more limited Franco-Russian versus Triple Alliance (with at least neutral Italy) war to craft a victory for Germany and A-H. In other words no world war at all really.

Here the British are at most hostile neutral and the USA is strictly neutral. IF the British are involved then there needs to be less relationship with the USA, a few handicaps such as the London Treaty abolishing blockade, the USA friendlier to Germany, etc. Japan likely has remained neutral towards Germany or if not has openly broken with Britain and pursued Russia and that fails when Russia loses. Although it may not avoid the invasion of Belgium I think that is a better path to take. Here I am assuming Germany divides it forces to add one or two Armies to the 8th versus Russia and the A-H forces perform better. Perhaps this war begins in 1913 or 1916 to handicap the Entente more in whatever ways. Germany is not blockaded and the UK finances as well as supplies the Russians with France more independent, adding to less cohesion and allowing for Britain to back out or seperate peaces. The war to the West is more defensive for Germany with an offensive skirting Belgium or not far enough in to matter so it fails but France pursues costly offensives no matter. The war in Russia is more mobile until stalls on longer lines of communication and ever widening fronts, with access to supplies Russia is not defeated despite its losses. Here France gets emasculated and Russia loses territory, both pay reparations. I think one must allow for the abdication of the Czar and the possibility of a republic forming. The USA retains great potential but never climbs to a position of power, the British Empire carries on as the global proto-super power and Germany assumes its place as the continental hegemon yet its authority is balanced by A-H and dulled by Italy. France likely loses some colonial territories and we see the eastern European nations carved out or put under new orbits, Poland may be further partitioned or spun into a tight vassal, likely under the A-H with Germany taking the rest. Frankly I think it is short lived as the Germans build a customs union that usurps the quasi-colonial first draft of what to do with the East. Russia has the resources to climb back but France will be under the German shadow yet if anything it should allow her to refocus on her own development, after all the vanquished Germans and Japanese today are both top-tier. Russia is a wildcard, it could go revanche or refocus on core Russia, the south and far east. The Ottomans are better poised to redevelop and I doubt they are anything but neutral, now dominated by British and German interests. A second war will be about the oil in the Arabian peninsula or spheres in China, it might be Germany versus Britain, it could be Russia versus Germany, a generally bi-polar world can be quite stable, perhaps proxy wars, imagine the Germans and British arming competing sides in a Chinese civil war, or propping up lesser allies to realign colonies, or entirely new alignments where a Germany supports Russia versus Japan or Japan and Russia align to push out Britain or the USA, this can be a rather open future that unfolds in ways seemingly unbelievable. It takes a multitude of alterations in my opinion to get Germany the first among equals and on par with the British, but I suspect it sweeps away the entire foundation for what occurs post-war as we know it.
 
One attitude united even Falkenhayn and Ludendorff: in the current war, it was not possible to vanquish the real enemy, England. Hence, it was important to prepare for the 'next round'. This, for a large part, explains Ludendorff's drive to control the European heartland, the Ukraine, and the Caucasus oil. If Germany had these areas under control, the 'sea powers', Britain and the USA, would in future be unable to do the harm they were currently doing with their hunger blockade. Unnecessary to stress, the Kaiserliche Marine was sharing this sentiment.
How far this attitude of the military would/could be moderated by the politicians/diplomatists would depend on the time and kind of victory.
 
Despite it being a popular trope , France CANNOT challenge Germany a third time. It does not have the population, industry, or will. If it goes radical it may have the will but not the other two. Most likely after a CP victory it gets permanently trapped in Germany's sphere.

How Britain and Russia get defeated in WW1 is of supreme importance.

Britain can only be "defeated" in the sense that she can be persuaded to cease hostilities after France and Russia have been defeated. The population might get a bit revanchist, especially if the defeat causes Britain to lose its grip on Ireland. I suspect, though, that a sort of Cold War might develop between Britain and a German dominated Europe, with Britain seeking America as a full-time ally rather than just a friend to counterbalance Germany's might.

Correction: France cannot LEAD any challenge to German hegemony on the continent. However, they still have a very strong desire to change the status quo to validate their horrific experiances in any alt-Great War situation bad enough to bring about a major surrender, restore them to their "rightful and proper" areas of influence, salve wounded national pride, and create, if not Great Power status for themselves, at least preserve autonomy as a secondary/"decisive balance" power, free of domination by the German juggernaught. Its a situation very similar to Italy's IOTL, and I expect the French will adopt a very similar policy: looking for small oppritunities to strengthen themselves/chip away at German power, making international "prestige plays" to put emphasis on the fact that they are still a power and outside the German orbit. However, the resources aren't there to throw a champaigne reception on a beer budget, so in jackal-like oppritunism they're liable to alienate the international community for temporary gains and end up playing second fiddle to a Great Power patron (The U.K or Russia) who's economy they'd increasingly come to depend on and who's actions will increasingly direct the ways in which the alliance is working to undermine German power. Whatever the case, though, putting themselves under the German umbrella is a situation they'd accept only via force.
 
CP victory does not mean WWII is inevitable. Hell even WW II wasn't inevitable in OTL.

I could see regional or localized issues occurring depending on how the victors play in their new playground.

The Balkans will remain a sore spot
The middle east settles back into Ottoman life - Modernization, Oil
Eastern Europe and the Baltics trade the devil for the devil while the devil licks its wounds; The Germans would support the whites in the civil war.
If Germany treats Eastern Europe in a bad way they will have massive population uprisings and the Russians would have cause at some point to intervene with a good chance at regaining territory.

On the other hand, if they setup these new puppet states and make life better? then, I don't see revolts or any Russian movement.
Poland, Litva, Belarus, Ukraine all have their own identities, allow them to be a part of a new eastern Europe and regain their culture and language and improve their way of life.

AH empire - need to get their own house in order

Italy would move to the German sphere
Greece and Romania and Bulgaria as well


France is neutralized

The benalux falls to primarily the German sphere

Denmark and Norway might as well, however one could see them forming some form of a Nordic economic union with the swedes and finland that is aligned with Germany


The British will just be the British Empire as always.


France is not going to start a full on war with no way to win.
A Surviving Russian Empire or Soviet Union wont either.
 
With a CP victory there would be 3 superpowers; USA, German MittelEuropa and Russia/Soviet Union. Perhaps some sort of western European strategic union with France and Britain might form some sort of quasi 4th superpower; they would be very vulnerable to invasion and blockade to be fully effective against Germany but might be very effective against the US or Russia/SU. If Britain and France aren't very closely tied together then they along with Italy, Japan and more minor powers will be pawns to the big 3.

Indeed it might be the smaller powers that cause WW2; Italy in Abyssinia, Japan in Manchuria, Britain and France in colonial squabbles. If they come up against one of the big 3 then possibly another of the big 3 will back them and there's your WW2.

Assuming the USSR still rises in a Central Powers victory. Not sure how a World War 2 could arise outside of a domino effect of alliances.
 
Assuming the USSR still rises in a Central Powers victory. Not sure how a World War 2 could arise outside of a domino effect of alliances.

I think it's pretty inevitable that Russia, be it Soviet Union Commie, some sort of Tsarist or some sort of other republic would gain in power during the first half of the 20th century as it industrialises more, build better infrastructure etc. That was one big fear of German leading up to WW1, that the railway building programme scheduled to finish in 1917 would make Russia unbeatable.
 
I think it's pretty inevitable that Russia, be it Soviet Union Commie, some sort of Tsarist or some sort of other republic would gain in power during the first half of the 20th century as it industrialises more, build better infrastructure etc. That was one big fear of German leading up to WW1, that the railway building programme scheduled to finish in 1917 would make Russia unbeatable.

Yeah, but that doesn't mean that it would become communist I mean. If the war was over by the would-be Feburary Revolution or if the new Republic left the war by then, then Russia would very likely not fall to communism. It would definitely indusrialize and become very powerful though who it would ally with would depend. I doubt they'd be in good spirits with Germany and so they might turn to the US in terms of a good ally.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
... might turn to the US in terms of a good ally.
Hmmm, dunno, ...

IOTL the russians bought or ordered heavily from US industry during the war.

Did they pay their bills ?


If not ...
IOTL the "friendship" between the US and their main debtors France as well as Britain, well, were for quite some time rather "cooled" by the latters ... attitude to repay their debts to the US.

How would this play out ITTL between Russia and the US ?
 
Yeah, but that doesn't mean that it would become communist I mean. If the war was over by the would-be Feburary Revolution or if the new Republic left the war by then, then Russia would very likely not fall to communism. It would definitely indusrialize and become very powerful though who it would ally with would depend. I doubt they'd be in good spirits with Germany and so they might turn to the US in terms of a good ally.

I don't think they'd have to go commie either, but the natural resources and other economic indicators of Russia pretty much guarantee she'll be in the big leagues as she develops.
 
I don't think they'd have to go commie either, but the natural resources and other economic indicators of Russia pretty much guarantee she'll be in the big leagues as she develops.

Oh definitely, but it would probably be better than the USSR if things go decently
 
Assuming the USSR still rises in a Central Powers victory. Not sure how a World War 2 could arise outside of a domino effect of alliances.
Without Ukraine the Soviets will be hard pressed to pay the reparations (Germany: Or else...), there's not much room for foreign adventurism.
 
Hmmm, dunno, ...

IOTL the russians bought or ordered heavily from US industry during the war.

Did they pay their bills ?

If not ...
IOTL the "friendship" between the US and their main debtors France as well as Britain, well, were for quite some time rather "cooled" by the latters ... attitude to repay their debts to the US.

How would this play out ITTL between Russia and the US ?
It might not matter too much. IIRC Germany had interest in South America, which the US would oppose, and in turn would bring the two into conflict with one another. It might not be enough to spark a war, at first anyway, but it could heavily influence the US to take an interest in friendship with Germany's enemies.
 
I'd say WWII as it happened in OTL won't happen. Hitler wouldn't have even founded the NSDAP, considering the fact that they won, since the NSDAP in OTL was formed because Hitler was angry at the fact that the Central Powers lost WWI.
 
I always preffered the CP win sceniarios, inwhich Austria-Hungary makes the difference. So Austria-Hungary prepares a bit better for the war (also Potiorek dies, always!). When the war starts, the second army is deployed properly in Galicia. After the first Austrian victory at Krasnik, the Auffenberg's Fourth Army encircles and annihilates most of the Russian Fifth Army, then marches on Kholm. Army Group Boroevic detaches from the Fourth Army and turns South, which together with the 3rd Army forces the Russian Third Army to retreat. Dankl's First Army takes Lublin, thus the frontline is on the Lublin-Kholm-Bug-Dniester line by late September. By mid-November, Ivangorod and Warsaw are taken. Meanwhile, the Serbs attempt to break into Bosnia, later into Szerém, they fail both time and suffer significant casualties.
In 1915, Russia suffers defeats after defeats, by the end of the year, the Austro-Hungarian frontline is on the Luniniec-Sorny-Rovno-Proskurov line. Together with Bulgaria, Austria-Hungary invades and conquers Serbia.
In 1916, Austria-Hungary occupies Montenegro and Albania, where out of 200 000 trapped Serbian soldiers, 40 000 is successfully evacuated to Corfu by the British, while the rest is finally defeated by the Austro-Hungarian army. Meanwhile, a huge Russian offensive during the summer was repulsed by the Austro-Hungarians. In the counter-offensive, the Central Powers take Olevsk, Jitomir and Zhmerinka. Romania joins the war against Russia. In november, revolution shakes Russia. The new Russian provisional government sues for peace.
In 1917, Germany occupies Riga and Minsk. The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk is signed with Russia in april. According to the treaty, Russia cedes almost all of Russian Poland to Austria-Hungary, Bessarabia to Romania and Kars to the Ottoman Empire. The United Baltic Duchy and the Kingdom of Lithuania are also established in personal union with Germany. Russia West to the Daugava and Dnieper comes under Central Power occupation, until the war in the West ends. After being streghtened by both own and Austro-Hungarian divisions from the Eastern Front, the Germans launch their final all-out campaign on the Western Front in may. Paris falls in september and France sues for peace. Later, armistice with Britain is signed as well. In the last months, Italy declared war on France as well.

The following peace treaty is not that harsh, because the British can't be forced to anything, because of their naval superiority, but they also object any too big burdens on France and threaten with the resume of war and the maintaining of blockade. Austria-Hungary also in opposition of harsh terms, because they don't want Germany to be too strong either. Eventually France is forced to cede economically important areas to Germany near the border, Belgium becomes a German satelite. France also cedes Savoy and Nice to Italy. On the Balkans, Bulgaria received Greek Macedonia East to the Struma River, Serbian Macedonia, and parts of Serbia East to the Great Morava River. Serbia, Montenegro and Albania all became Austro-Hungarian satelite states.

In the following years, Emperor and King Karl I/IV establishes with the hasty approval of both Austrian and Hungarian parliements the third party of the Habsburg state, the Kingdom of Poland, which consists of Congress Poland, Galicia-Volhynia and Bukovina, thus the Polish version of Trialism is implemented.



In a sceniario like this, as Austria-Hungary-Poland would slowly catch up with Germany economically, the rise of conflict between these countries could become increasingly likely. By the 40s, the following two option would be present:
Germany-Austria-Hungary-Poland vs UK-Russia-France or Germany with Italy going to either side, which is winning; or Germany-Italy vs France-Austria-Hungary-Poland(-UK) with Russia remaining isolated from both groups, since it has claims on both sides.
 
Top