What would a post Central Power victory look like?

RNG

Banned
What if the Central Powers won World War One, possibly because 1. They never march though Belgium and Britain never enters so America never enters 2. America never enters the war, perhaps because the Zimmerman Telegraph was never sent 3. They are more powerful somehow 4. Italy enters on their side 5. Italy is neutral How would the post war world look like? Would there be another major European war? How would the Central Powers approach a expanding Japanese Empire? Would America ever be a superpower without fighting/winning in World War One? How long would Austrian Hungary and the Ottoman Empire last, what would their legacy be, what nations would they leave behind? Would Islamic terrorism be such a problem without the Allies meddling in the Middle East? Would the Soviet Union ever form? Would fascism ever rise? What do you think?
 
The sequelae of a victory of the Central Powers would depend upon the way in which Germany and its allies won the war.

If, for example, Germany deploys the bulk of its forces against Russia and so refrains from invading Belgium, then we would get:
a. A French offensive into Germany that would fare poorly in the face of the three or four German field armies that remained in the West and the German fortresses.
b. The rapid defeat of the cream of the Russian Army in the summer and autumn of 1914.
c. A collapse of the will of the French population to support the war, caused by the absence of a German invasion of French territory and the high cost of the invasion of German territory.
d. A collapse of the will of the Russian government to continue the war, caused by the failure of the French offensive into Germany, the absence of British aid, and, most of all, the defeat of the best formations of the Russian Army
e. A peace, brokered by either the United States or the United Kingdom, with little in the way of territorial changes. (After all, the last thing that Imperial Germany wants is either an independent Poland or a massive increase in its own Polish-speaking population.)
f. As the war would be short, the pernicious effects that the World War of our time line had in the realms of culture, politics, and economics would have been much less powerful. Thus, our common civilization would have been spared the worst of such movements as modern art, brutalist architecture, socialism, feminism, corporatism, and autarky. In other words, the Western world would have been freer, more prosperous, more peaceful, and even more beautiful.​
 
How would the post war world look like?

There is several possibilities. But immediate effects are massive. Germany would be absolute top dog in continental Europe but Brits still rule seas. Germany probably would lost all its colonies outside of Africa but it takes colonies from France. But not from Brits. It is unable do that. France and Russia would be severely weakened. Belgium probably would lost Belgian Congo and becomes German puppet. Eastern Europe is totally German dominant.

Would there be another major European war?

Probably not. France and Russia are too weak and Germany not be allowing them militarise again.

How would the Central Powers approach a expanding Japanese Empire?

Probably they wouldn't care. Brits and Americans would care more. Perhaps French too.

Would America ever be a superpower without fighting/winning in World War One?

Not such as OTL altough quiet powerful yes.

How long would Austrian Hungary and the Ottoman Empire last, what would their legacy be, what nations would they leave behind?

Fate of Austria-Hungary and Ottoman Empire depends how quickly CPs win the war. If war is short enough both can survive to modern day or at least several decades longer. But their top days would be over anyway.

Would Islamic terrorism be such a problem without the Allies meddling in the Middle East?

No. It wouldn't be big problem even if Ottomans will fall. In such scenario Ottoman successor states would haven't borders draw by European, no Israel and Europeans wouldn't intervene so much to Mid Eastern issues.

Would the Soviet Union ever form?

Hardly. Germany is not going allow that.

Would fascism ever rise?

It is possible but that would be different as OTL. France mght go to fascist but it not be sure. French fascist factions were very divide and it would be difficult to rise dominant party. Russia might return to monarchy with help of Germans. Italy depends join it to war or not.
 
How would the post war world look like?

There would be 3 superpowers; Germany, USA, Russia and a bunch of great powers ranging from a pretty muscular Britain through to a pretty feeble Italy, then there'd be everybody else.

Would there be another major European war?

Not for a generation, and then it would revolve around Germany and Russia as superpowers, with whatever allies they can gather to their causes at the time. If these 2 don't go at it then the next big war will between one of them and the USA plus cats and dogs.

How would the Central Powers approach a expanding Japanese Empire?

Given the world is getting smaller I can see Germany courting Japan, but no more than she would Italy or other great powers.

Would America ever be a superpower without fighting/winning in World War One?

Yes, she was already an economic superpower and the 3rd most battleships in the world. The events of 1916; the Pancho Villa expedition, the mobilising of all 12 National Guard divisions on the southern border and the Defence Act doubling the size of the Army and NG and authorising the construction of a heap of naval ships would have pushed her to the front rank in naval terms and given her an Army of 30 divisions.

How long would Austrian Hungary and the Ottoman Empire last, what would their legacy be, what nations would they leave behind? Would Islamic terrorism be such a problem without the Allies meddling in the Middle East? Would the Soviet Union ever form? Would fascism ever rise?

These would depend on the course of the war, how it was fought and why and how the CP won.
 
Thus, our common civilization would have been spared the worst of such movements as modern art, brutalist architecture, socialism, feminism, corporatism, and autarky. In other words, the Western world would have been freer, more prosperous, more peaceful, and even more beautiful.
Feminism was still in the suffragette stage, and with men heading to and dying in the trenches, women began to take up a larger role in society. It probably won't kill it off, but without the war the delays could be surprisingly long. Saying that being free from feminism would lead to a "better" Western world before many women could even vote seems rather misogynistic, though I do get the tongue-in-check nature.

No World War 1, doesn't mean no modern art. Various works were already being produced in the 1910s. Picasso was painting cubist works before the war began. Art acts as a vehicle for money laundering. Being entirely subjective makes it easy to assign random values to bits of canvas and cloth and move cash around. A piece that requires little technical expertise would probably make things easier too. Just blame the buyer for being a weirdo.
I'm not entirely sure why you mentioned brutalism either. That's a movement from the 1950s and while you may hope it's been butterflied away, much of it was borne of low cost. While I don't think it'll be as popular with government buildings, I can still see many high rise apartment buildings in poorer areas still retaining this style.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
What if the Central Powers won World War One, possibly because 1. They never march though Belgium and Britain never enters so America never enters 2. America never enters the war, perhaps because the Zimmerman Telegraph was never sent 3. They are more powerful somehow 4. Italy enters on their side 5. Italy is neutral How would the post war world look like? Would there be another major European war? How would the Central Powers approach a expanding Japanese Empire? Would America ever be a superpower without fighting/winning in World War One? How long would Austrian Hungary and the Ottoman Empire last, what would their legacy be, what nations would they leave behind? Would Islamic terrorism be such a problem without the Allies meddling in the Middle East? Would the Soviet Union ever form? Would fascism ever rise? What do you think?

The issue that you run into in answering your question is that you give a whole range of scenarios. Just to list a few, keeping the USA out of the war by avoiding USW looks a lot different than Italy being bought off early by A-H which looks a lot different than if Germany went with the Russia first war plan. You have listed all these choices.

As to what can be answered with more certainty with all scenarios.

  • The Soviet Union was a very low probability event IOTL, so it is likely butterflied away by most major POD's.
  • WW2 is what made the USA a super power, not one of 5 or so great powers. So likely, the USA just remains one of the leading powers.
  • A neutral Italy probably is greatly richer than OTL. Italy foreign policy will have a tendency to keep playing each side off each other.
  • Japan is not really an issue for the CP since they have nothing left in the Pacific. Generally speaking, the CP will want China or Japan as a ally based on whichever is available. If we see the break in UK/Japan relations post war like OTL, Japan will ally with the CP. IMO, this is likely due to Japan/UK friction in China.
  • House of Saud becoming kings is probably still born in a CP win. Depends a lot on the scenario though.
  • Most likely, Ottomans and A-H would still be around. Maybe bigger or smaller, but still around.
 
I would agree that this war is potentially shorter and less destructive, Russia likely moves further towards a true constitutional monarchy or even goes Republic. France is reduced to an Italy, not enough power to assert itself in Europe and the weak ally of either Russia or the British who might intervene to keep her from being soundly punished. Italy only gains if she honors he alliance, otherwise she gets sidelined and flirts endlessly to find a strong partner and invitation back into the big game. Germany should build its customs union and begin a long trek towards a European economic zone to rival the Empire and the USA in industry. I agree with most that the British will remain the only true global power due to her naval strength and colonial interests but Germany will be her near-peer and that could set this less humbled Germany towards the final step of parity and then supremacy. That is not a guarantee of war but I think we see the rivalry continue as before. A-H should survive and despite its internal tensions map a more diverse polity for Europe in time, proof that diverse peoples can be united. That is more likely to get us on track towards an EU like dynamic in the succeeding generation. This is a world still dominated by Europe, the USA is an adjunct to that power and holding the Americas independent of it. Asia will remain secondary to Europe and Africa totally subject to it. Colonialism will be the order of the day much farther into the future, more of the world will emerge with a European influenced culture and feel. I doubt here Germany is made to lose her colonies, in fact she should gain some tidbits from France. China will remain under European led spheres to divide her in fact and exploit her, Japan will either perish in challenging that for herself or accept being someone's local partner, likely she turns neutral and tries to be seduced without ever truly committing. The OE becomes Petro-state and potential battleground but likely remains entangled between the British and German power that ensures she gets rich but isn't truly independent of either or both. I think the Nordic countries form a union to remain independent and relevant but re in the German led sphere. The Balkans remain thorny but likely go on to both peace and prosperity. Poland at best becomes a buffer state, at worst gets left in Russia or absorbed by A-H. The Finns may never be independent, the Baltics likely get assimilated by Germany. Eventually the world will settle under the power of the British, Germans, Americans and Russians, their order will shift, but these are the only powers able to contend for true great power status.
 
It all depends on the when and the how, especially if any of the nations try to do anything tricky. Furthermore, how they will handle the peace is different.

I don’t think Germany will be able to annex the Baltics if not just basically make it into more or less puppet states through arranged marriages to control the nobility for example. Heck, I wouldn’t be surprised if Russia would subtlety hint at the territories trying to rebel if Germany tries to quash them
 
House of Saud becoming kings is probably still born in a CP win. Depends a lot on the scenario though.

And particularly on how German-Turkish relations go postwar. If the Turks get uppity, it may suit Germany to patronise an Arab state on their southern flank.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
German puppets in Eastern Europe most likely. Baltic Duchy, Lithuania, the Ukraine. Poland will be in a weird situation, where Germany don't really want to give them independence but neither want to annex them (becuase they don't want more Poles inside their border, and the promised the Poles of Russia independence, but especially the army doesn't really want to keep those promises, and, Poland will be weird).

Also German annexation of Belgian Congo and some French colonies in Africa is likely once the British problem (i.e. somehow peace out with Britain without losing colonies) is dealt with.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Put it into a better readable format.
What if the Central Powers won World War One, possibly because
1. They never march though Belgium and Britain never enters so America never enters
2. America never enters the war, perhaps because the Zimmerman Telegraph was never sent
3. They are more powerful somehow
4. Italy enters on their side
5. Italy is neutral

How would the post war world look like?
Would there be another major European war?
How would the Central Powers approach a expanding Japanese Empire?
Would America ever be a superpower without fighting/winning in World War One?
How long would Austrian Hungary and the Ottoman Empire last, what would their legacy be, what nations would they leave behind?
Would Islamic terrorism be such a problem without the Allies meddling in the Middle East?
Would the Soviet Union ever form?
Would fascism ever rise?

What do you think?
The issue that you run into in answering your question is that you give a whole range of scenarios.

Can only seconde @BlondieBC here.


Therefore one of your scenarios should be choosen. At this its most important point to consider might be the time the war eventually lasts. This would have considerable consequences for any peace "agreement"/"treaty", that would eventually be reached with according considerable changes of an alternative post-war history with its social developments.
ad 1.
WOooowHH !! This is/would be considered as a "german wank" by many here on the board, esp. the part with "Britain never enters ..."
This would also - most likely - mean strategically for the germans :
defense in the west
offense in the east​
In terms of duration :
short war (home at christmas 1914, at least easter 1915) , midterm (autumn 1916) as well as late victory (similar to OTL) all well possible, depending on a lot of flipping coins/rolling dices in a lot of situations.​

ad 2.
definitly a "late victory" end of 1917, more likely in 1918, still possible in 1919​

ad 3.
This is "handwaving". So I won't consider this.​

ad 4.
Once again the moment in time is important, splitting this in at least two variants of their own right.
a) joins (almost) from the beginning, aka August/September 1914 would imo lead to a rather early CP-victory in early, midth 1915
b) joins after some time of neutrality like ... instead joining the Entente joining the CP in May 1915​


Generally I would say :

the later the victory, the more a situation similar to OTL - only with positions on the negotiation table changed with similar developments afterwards to OTL. ... aka another "Great War" becomming more possible/probable.

the earlier the victory the lessser "social upheavels" as IOTL and lesser or slower social changes as IOTL (art, feminism, economics, finances, etc.), another "Great War" becoming much lesser probable ... and a lesser important "role" of the US of A in the next 20 years at least.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
How would the Central Powers approach a expanding Japanese Empire?

Lil' anekdote from the time the japanese ultimatum regarding Tsintao reached Berlin.
(Unfortunatly can't find the quote right now)
It has been told, that Wilhem II. regarded a surrender of Tsingtao to the japanes even more embarressing/devastating to germany(s reputation and his own) as a loss of Königsvberg to the russians.

Wilhelm was a fervent advocate of the necessity of the europeans to unity against the "yellow scare", aka any asiatic people raising its head against europeans ... as the japanes had done against Russia.
 
The sequelae of a victory of the Central Powers would depend upon the way in which Germany and its allies won the war.

If, for example, Germany deploys the bulk of its forces against Russia and so refrains from invading Belgium, then we would get:
a. A French offensive into Germany that would fare poorly in the face of the three or four German field armies that remained in the West and the German fortresses.
b. The rapid defeat of the cream of the Russian Army in the summer and autumn of 1914.
c. A collapse of the will of the French population to support the war, caused by the absence of a German invasion of French territory and the high cost of the invasion of German territory.
d. A collapse of the will of the Russian government to continue the war, caused by the failure of the French offensive into Germany, the absence of British aid, and, most of all, the defeat of the best formations of the Russian Army
e. A peace, brokered by either the United States or the United Kingdom, with little in the way of territorial changes. (After all, the last thing that Imperial Germany wants is either an independent Poland or a massive increase in its own Polish-speaking population.)​


If the Germans deploy solely against the Russians, they still could leave themselves open to a problematic front along the Rhine, or the British simply intervene themselves on the side of the French to prevent a German hegemony and Belgian neutrality becomes moot. Britain would more than likely have gotten involved no matter what, the German Navy was just too much of a potential boogeyman in the popular mind to avoid the idea of Germany becoming the continental hegemon, which Britain opposed.

However, Germany can't beat the two other powers, and so after a time most likely (with Russia collapsing in 1916 probably) seeks an armistice recognizing their achievements in the east while hoping to force stalemate in the West, which the two powers probably reluctantly agree to, with prodding from the United States.

As the war would be short, the pernicious effects that the World War of our time line had in the realms of culture, politics, and economics would have been much less powerful. Thus, our common civilization would have been spared the worst of such movements as modern art, brutalist architecture, socialism, feminism, corporatism, and autarky. In other words, the Western world would have been freer, more prosperous, more peaceful, and even more beautiful.

I don't see how any of that logically follows...

German puppets in Eastern Europe most likely. Baltic Duchy, Lithuania, the Ukraine. Poland will be in a weird situation, where Germany don't really want to give them independence but neither want to annex them (becuase they don't want more Poles inside their border, and the promised the Poles of Russia independence, but especially the army doesn't really want to keep those promises, and, Poland will be weird).

Also German annexation of Belgian Congo and some French colonies in Africa is likely once the British problem (i.e. somehow peace out with Britain without losing colonies) is dealt with.

IIRC Germany planned to put a German prince on the throne of a puppet Polish kingdom, and in doing so "fix" the Polish problem by making them a protectorate against Russia thus earning Polish favor without actually giving anything up.

The Germans get their colonies back right around the time hell freezes over, Britannia Rules The Waves and the Kaiser can't do a thing about it.

How would the Central Powers approach a expanding Japanese Empire?

Lil' anekdote from the time the japanese ultimatum regarding Tsintao reached Berlin.
(Unfortunatly can't find the quote right now)
It has been told, that Wilhem II. regarded a surrender of Tsingtao to the japanes even more embarressing/devastating to germany(s reputation and his own) as a loss of Königsvberg to the russians.

Wilhelm was a fervent advocate of the necessity of the europeans to unity against the "yellow scare", aka any asiatic people raising its head against europeans ... as the japanes had done against Russia.
\

Well the Turks/Austrians won't care really. Germany might hold a grudge, but without being able to counter Anglo-Japanese naval superiority they can do diddly squat about it. They'll probably court China as a counter to Japanese expansion in Asia however.
 
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